This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.90
2.85
0.77
1.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.62
0.88
2.00
0.50
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
2.41
0.91
3.22
0.89
1.85
0.92
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.9%
@ 1.94-8.7%
Under 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.84+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.3%
2-1 ✓
6.6%
2-0
5.1%
Ajaccio goals ↓
Lorient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
8.3%
3.6%
1.1%
1
8.9%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.1%
6.6%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajaccio goals (down), columns = Lorient goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lorient
2.14
Paris FC
2.08
Metz
1.86
Dunkerque
1.66
Annecy
1.58
Boulogne
1.50
Laval
1.50
Guingamp
1.49
Bastia
1.44
Estac Troyes
1.33
PAU
1.33
Grenoble
1.31
Amiens
1.28
Ajaccio
1.25
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Martigues
0.89
Caen
0.67
Ajaccio is 0.89 points worse than Lorient in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lorient
2.00
Metz
1.81
Paris FC
1.72
Guingamp
1.65
Rodez
1.58
Boulogne
1.50
Dunkerque
1.34
Laval
1.33
PAU
1.28
Grenoble
1.22
Bastia
1.22
Annecy
1.22
Amiens
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.14
Red Star
1.09
RED Star FC 93
1.09
Clermont Foot
0.95
Caen
0.94
Ajaccio
0.89
Martigues
0.81
Ajaccio is 1.11 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lorient
0.92
Paris FC
0.97
Estac Troyes
1.00
Metz
1.00
Bastia
1.03
Laval
1.08
Dunkerque
1.11
Annecy
1.19
Ajaccio
1.22
Grenoble
1.31
Clermont Foot
1.34
Guingamp
1.43
Amiens
1.44
Red Star
1.50
RED Star FC 93
1.50
PAU
1.53
Rodez
1.58
Martigues
1.61
Caen
1.69
Boulogne
2.00
Ajaccio is 0.31 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris FC
61%
Metz
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Lorient
56%
Guingamp
55%
Caen
54%
RED Star FC 93
52%
Bastia
52%
Clermont Foot
51%
Boulogne
50%
PAU
49%
Ajaccio
46%
Grenoble
45%
Estac Troyes
45%
Amiens
44%
Martigues
44%
Laval
44%
Annecy
43%
Rodez
43%
Ajaccio is 10.0 percentage points worse than Lorient in terms of average possession (46% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ajaccio
For 5.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
For 5.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajaccio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
8.9
3.9
3.7
4.0
26.8
25.1
28.6
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
9.5
8.2
3.8
4.2
3.6
29.1
29.5
28.7
vs Similar (37)
8.9
8.7
9.1
3.9
3.6
4.2
26.1
23.7
28.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
38%
38%
54%
52%
56%
84%
80%
88%
% under line
62%
62%
62%
46%
48%
44%
16%
20%
12%
This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.9
9.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
24.4
23.9
25.0
vs Stronger (4)
13.0
10.0
16.0
3.8
1.0
6.5
19.0
16.0
22.0
vs Similar (16)
8.3
7.7
8.9
3.8
3.9
3.7
25.9
26.6
25.4
vs Weaker (30)
10.3
11.0
9.5
2.6
3.1
2.2
24.4
23.7
25.2
% over line
51%
55%
48%
42%
48%
37%
65%
70%
61%
% under line
49%
45%
52%
58%
52%
63%
35%
30%
39%
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Red Star
10.3
Rodez
10.3
Grenoble
10.1
RED Star FC 93
10.0
Laval
9.9
PAU
9.9
Clermont Foot
9.9
Lorient
9.7
Martigues
9.7
Caen
9.7
Amiens
9.5
Metz
9.4
Guingamp
9.3
Annecy
9.3
Bastia
9.2
Paris FC
9.1
Ajaccio
8.8
Dunkerque
8.7
Estac Troyes
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.4
PAU
4.3
Metz
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.1
Amiens
4.1
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
4.0
Annecy
4.0
Martigues
4.0
Laval
4.0
Ajaccio
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Paris FC
3.9
Caen
3.9
Guingamp
3.7
Rodez
3.6
Grenoble
3.5
Red Star
3.4
RED Star FC 93
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Caen
27.5
Bastia
27.2
Laval
27.1
Amiens
27.0
Annecy
27.0
Ajaccio
27.0
Guingamp
26.7
Estac Troyes
26.5
Red Star
25.9
PAU
25.4
Martigues
25.4
Dunkerque
25.3
Clermont Foot
24.9
Metz
24.9
Paris FC
24.7
Lorient
24.7
RED Star FC 93
24.6
Grenoble
24.4
Rodez
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.2%
Under 9.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.1%
Under 3.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
79.1%
Under 21.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajaccio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.38
0.00
0.67
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.77
0.42
0.67
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.00
0.43
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.88
0.75
0.50
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.32
1.10
0.40
0.83
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajaccio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.93
0.40
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
1.08
0.25
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.43
1.86
0.29
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
0.59
2.10
0.40
0.92
0.75
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ajaccio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aboubakary Kanté25%
Ben Touré15%
Moussa Soumano15%
Yoann Touzghar11%
Christopher Ibayi11%
Axel Bamba10%
Everson Junior10%
Julien Anziani9%
Mickaël Barreto8%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli7%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Tony Strata4%
Valentin Jacob0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Clement Vidal0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stephen Quemper40%
Everson Junior29%
Thomas Mangani26%
Mickaël Barreto25%
Clement Vidal22%
Benjamin Santelli22%
Christopher Ibayi21%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli20%
Jesah Ayessa20%
Matthieu Huard18%
Ivane Chegra16%
Mohamed Youssouf15%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro14%
Axel Bamba13%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi13%
Julien Anziani12%
Ben Touré10%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Aboubakary Kanté0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mickaël Barreto17%
Valentin Jacob14%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Thomas Mangani5%
Christopher Ibayi5%
Matthieu Huard5%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Aboubakary Kanté4%
Julien Anziani3%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julien Anziani26%
Christopher Ibayi16%
Moussa Soumano11%
Aboubakary Kanté8%
Ben Touré5%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Benjamin Santelli0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
Lorient
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eli Junior Kroupi53%
Sambou Soumano31%
Mohamed Bamba18%
Panos Katseris17%
Pablo Pagis16%
Enzo Genton14%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka10%
Théo Le Bris8%
Aiyegun Tosin8%
Julien Ponceau7%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo5%
Julien Laporte5%
Formose Mendy5%
Montassar Talbi3%
Laurent Abergel3%
Darlin Yongwa3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Stéphane Diarra0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Bandiougou Fadiga0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Isaac James0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac James43%
Enzo Genton29%
Julien Laporte25%
Igor Silva24%
Laurent Abergel19%
Montassar Talbi17%
Panos Katseris13%
Darlin Yongwa12%
Pablo Pagis12%
Julien Ponceau10%
Eli Junior Kroupi10%
Gedeon Kalulu10%
Formose Mendy9%
Mohamed Bamba6%
Jean-Victor Makengo5%
Sambou Soumano3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Stéphane Diarra0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bandiougou Fadiga0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aiyegun Tosin32%
Mohamed Bamba24%
Laurent Abergel23%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Julien Ponceau13%
Sambou Soumano12%
Pablo Pagis12%
Arthur Avom Ebong9%
Eli Junior Kroupi7%
Jean-Victor Makengo5%
Igor Silva4%
Montassar Talbi3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Julien Laporte0%
Stéphane Diarra0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bandiougou Fadiga0%
Formose Mendy0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Panos Katseris0%
Isaac James0%
Enzo Genton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eli Junior Kroupi37%
Bandiougou Fadiga17%
Aiyegun Tosin16%
Sambou Soumano9%
Panos Katseris9%
Pablo Pagis8%
Mohamed Bamba6%
Jean-Victor Makengo5%
Julien Ponceau3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Julien Laporte0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Stéphane Diarra0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Formose Mendy0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Isaac James0%
Arthur Avom Ebong0%
Enzo Genton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 2 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Paris FC
Metz
Dunkerque
Annecy
Guingamp
Laval
Bastia
Estac Troyes
PAU
Grenoble
Amiens
Rodez
RED Star FC 93
Clermont Foot
Martigues
Caen
Boulogne