Arsenal are tipped to win, with a 61% chance of triumph, a 24% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of Dortmund taking the points. The match is expected to produce 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Arsenal, a 12.6% chance. Arsenal, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average two goals scored and only 0.33 conceded, while Dortmund’s away form shows a respectable 2.0 goals scored and 0.33 conceded against this tier. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.7%), Home +2 handicap (95.6%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.8%) and Under 4.5 (87.9%). Arsenal’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 3-0 win over Coventry, and Dortmund’s two-game winning streak, capped by a 2-0 victory over Werder Bremen, set the tone for a high-probability home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal win
61.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.67
1.80
0.47
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.84
0.56
2.00
0.33
1.69
0.77
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.13
2.41
0.94
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (21)
2.33
0.90
2.75
0.83
1.78
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.6%
2-0
12.4%
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.7%
Arsenal goals ↓
Borussia Dortmund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
4.7%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
3
7.5%
5.8%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.4%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal goals (down), columns = Borussia Dortmund goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
European competition: teams are ranked by a cross-league strength score - each side's domestic attack and defence made comparable via the model's fitted league strengths (stronger leagues weighted up). Each side's actual domestic figures are shown below.
🏆 Cross-league strength
0-100 · adjusted for league strength · 67 teams
Arsenal
100
Manchester City
97
Bayern München
90
Manchester United
89
Liverpool
87
Barcelona
86
Aston Villa
86
Inter
84
Real Madrid
84
Como
82
Borussia Dortmund
82
Paris Saint Germain
81
AS Roma
80
Sporting CP
79
FC Porto
79
Villarreal
78
Napoli
77
VfB Stuttgart
76
Atletico Madrid
76
Lens
76
RB Leipzig
76
Real Betis
74
Lille
71
Lyon
70
Union St. Gilloise
70
Viking
70
Bodo/Glimt
67
Club Brugge KV
67
PSV Eindhoven
66
Galatasaray
64
Slavia Praha
62
Fenerbahçe
60
Feyenoord
60
NEC Nijmegen
58
Omonia Nicosia
56
Kauno Žalgiris
56
Dinamo Zagreb
55
Lech Poznan
54
Gornik Zabrze
53
Shakhtar Donetsk
49
Levski Sofia
49
FC Thun
47
Sabah FA
46
Sparta Praha
45
Slovan Bratislava
45
Aarhus
45
Hapoel Beer Sheva
44
Heart Of Midlothian
43
FK Crvena Zvezda
43
Sturm Graz
43
Celtic
42
Lask Linz
41
Olympiakos Piraeus
41
Universitatea Craiova
39
Mjallby AIF
36
Kairat Almaty
30
Vikingur Reykjavik
29
Celje
25
Shamrock Rovers
22
KuPS
21
Ararat-Armenia
19
AEK Athens FC
15
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11
Larne
10
KI Klaksvik
7
Saburtalo
1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0
Arsenal is 18 pts stronger cross-league than Borussia Dortmund(100 vs 82 · ranks #1 vs #11 of 67).
Arsenal 2.24 (England: Premier League) · Borussia Dortmund 2.15 (Germany: Bundesliga). Domestic-league average points per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Arsenal 1.87 (England: Premier League) · Borussia Dortmund 2.06 (Germany: Bundesliga). Domestic-league goals scored per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Arsenal 0.71 (England: Premier League) · Borussia Dortmund 1.00 (Germany: Bundesliga). Domestic-league goals conceded per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
⏱️ Possession
Not compared for European ties.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal
For 4.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Dortmund
For 5.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.1
3.4
2.8
3.9
21.9
22.2
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
9.7
8.2
12.0
4.4
3.1
6.5
23.7
23.5
24.0
vs Weaker (39)
8.8
9.1
8.5
3.1
2.7
3.4
21.4
21.7
21.1
% over line
43%
42%
44%
50%
48%
52%
57%
62%
52%
% under line
57%
58%
56%
50%
52%
48%
43%
38%
48%
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.4
8.3
3.4
2.7
4.0
22.3
21.5
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
7.3
7.0
7.5
2.7
1.0
3.5
27.3
25.0
28.5
vs Similar (11)
8.5
8.4
8.5
4.2
3.4
4.8
22.7
23.4
22.2
vs Weaker (36)
9.1
9.8
8.3
3.2
2.6
3.8
21.7
20.8
22.7
% over line
37%
48%
25%
46%
36%
56%
59%
52%
67%
% under line
63%
52%
75%
54%
64%
44%
41%
48%
33%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sabah FA
12.0
Viking
12.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11.5
Larne
11.4
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Slavia Praha
11.0
Bodo/Glimt
10.9
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Kairat Almaty
10.4
Club Brugge KV
10.4
RB Leipzig
10.4
Lask Linz
10.3
Lens
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
KI Klaksvik
10.2
FC Thun
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Feyenoord
10.1
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Sturm Graz
10.0
Slovan Bratislava
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Sparta Praha
9.9
Lyon
9.9
Mjallby AIF
9.8
Sporting CP
9.8
KuPS
9.8
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Ararat-Armenia
9.6
Aarhus
9.6
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Lille
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
Celje
9.4
Inter
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Villarreal
9.2
Kauno Žalgiris
9.1
Real Betis
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Saburtalo
9.0
Union St. Gilloise
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
8.7
AEK Athens FC
8.7
Universitatea Craiova
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Vikingur Reykjavik
8.6
Napoli
8.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ararat-Armenia
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Sabah FA
5.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
AEK Athens FC
5.4
FC Porto
5.2
Larne
5.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
5.1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Universitatea Craiova
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
FC Thun
4.9
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
Saburtalo
4.9
Celje
4.9
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.8
Sparta Praha
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Levski Sofia
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Galatasaray
4.5
Como
4.5
Lens
4.5
KI Klaksvik
4.4
Villarreal
4.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
Kairat Almaty
4.4
Lille
4.4
Slavia Praha
4.3
Barcelona
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Viking
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
Celtic
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Lask Linz
3.7
Feyenoord
3.7
Mjallby AIF
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Kauno Žalgiris
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
RB Leipzig
3.4
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.3
KuPS
3.2
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
30.0
Sabah FA
29.4
AEK Athens FC
29.3
AS Roma
28.0
FC Thun
28.0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Slavia Praha
26.9
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Como
26.1
Kairat Almaty
26.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
25.7
Slovan Bratislava
25.5
Larne
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.3
Mjallby AIF
25.1
Lyon
25.1
Celje
25.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
24.9
Lens
24.8
Villarreal
24.8
Sparta Praha
24.7
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Viking
24.5
Levski Sofia
24.5
Aarhus
24.3
Lech Poznan
24.1
Lille
24.0
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Inter
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.8
Universitatea Craiova
23.8
Real Madrid
23.6
Aston Villa
23.6
Galatasaray
23.5
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Napoli
23.3
Shamrock Rovers
22.9
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Feyenoord
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Ararat-Armenia
22.3
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
Arsenal
22.1
KuPS
22.0
Kauno Žalgiris
22.0
Barcelona
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.8
Manchester United
21.5
Celtic
21.4
Liverpool
21.4
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Lask Linz
21.0
Club Brugge KV
20.3
RB Leipzig
19.9
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
19.7
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Bayern München
18.6
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
KI Klaksvik
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.1%
Under 9.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.3%
Under 3.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal or Draw
85.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
24%
14%
covers Arsenal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal or Borussia Dortmund
75.6%
Avg Implied -
61%
24%
14%
covers Arsenal + Borussia Dortmund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
38.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
24%
14%
covers Draw + Borussia Dortmund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal over/under 0.5
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 3.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal, so a minus line means Arsenal give that many goals of a start and Borussia Dortmund receive them. At -1, Arsenal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal)
Arsenal -2
17.3%
Draw -2
19.4%
Borussia Dortmund +2
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal)
Arsenal -1
36.7%
Draw -1
24.7%
Borussia Dortmund +1
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arsenal)
Arsenal +1
85.7%
Draw +1
9.8%
Borussia Dortmund -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arsenal)
Arsenal +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.5%
Borussia Dortmund -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.20
1.27
0.20
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.04
0.16
1.50
0.17
0.62
0.15
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.24
0.35
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.75
0.25
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.33
1.42
0.42
0.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.1%
Under 0.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
Under 2.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.17
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.18
0.59
1.15
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
1.29
0.57
1.33
0.42
1.22
0.78
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.3%
Under 1.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.8%
Under 2.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arsenal · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Borussia Dortmund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Serhou Guirassy39%
Karim Adeyemi26%
Julian Brandt24%
Maximilian Beier23%
Emre Can19%
Ramy Bensebaini19%
Samuele Inacio14%
Nico Schlotterbeck14%
Yan Couto11%
Luca Reggiani11%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Felix Nmecha10%
Daniel Svensson9%
Carney Chukwuemeka8%
Fábio Silva8%
Waldemar Anton7%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Niklas Süle0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Reggiani33%
Emre Can31%
Niklas Süle31%
Samuele Inacio29%
Ramy Bensebaini28%
Julian Ryerson24%
Nico Schlotterbeck22%
Karim Adeyemi18%
Yan Couto15%
Waldemar Anton14%
Fábio Silva13%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Maximilian Beier9%
Marcel Sabitzer9%
Jobe Bellingham7%
Serhou Guirassy7%
Gregor Kobel6%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Felix Nmecha0%
Julian Brandt0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Filippo Mané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Julian Ryerson36%
Fábio Silva18%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Pascal Groß12%
Marcel Sabitzer12%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Ramy Bensebaini9%
Serhou Guirassy9%
Niklas Süle8%
Yan Couto7%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Jobe Bellingham4%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Emre Can0%
Salih Özcan0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Filippo Mané0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Serhou Guirassy24%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Fábio Silva5%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Carney Chukwuemeka3%
Niklas Süle0%
Emre Can0%
Ramy Bensebaini0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Yan Couto0%
Daniel Svensson0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
RM (27)
€1456m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
BAR (30)
€1282m
BM (29)
€1076m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
INT (25)
€694m
AM (25)
€653m
AVL (27)
€536m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
FP (30)
€467m
NAP (33)
€459m
VS (54)
€430m
SC (31)
€414m
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
VIL (24)
€325m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
PE (29)
€280m
RB (25)
€235m
FEY (30)
€229m
CBK (27)
€196m
LEN (27)
€187m
SD (33)
€186m
OP (29)
€175m
SP (38)
€123m
CEL (27)
€116m
FCZ (32)
€115m
USG (26)
€98m
SP (35)
€92m
AAF (26)
€85m
BOD (24)
€75m
DZ (34)
€66m
LP (25)
€58m
NN (29)
€54m
SG (26)
€52m
VIK (27)
€47m
LL (22)
€44m
LS (27)
€38m
UC (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SB (28)
€35m
GZ (27)
€29m
MA (24)
€26m
HOM (30)
€22m
HBS (26)
€20m
SF (24)
€17m
FT (25)
€17m
ON (23)
€15m
CEL (31)
€14m
KŽ (27)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
ARA (26)
€8m
KUP (30)
€7m
SR (31)
€7m
ER (24)
€7m
SAB (22)
€6m
VR (26)
€5m
LAR (23)
€4m
KK (28)
€3m
LRI (25)
€2m
Arsenal's squad is €877m more valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€1406m vs €529m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
PSG (10)
€638m
MC (9)
€635m
ARS (13)
€608m
BAR (10)
€590m
BM (10)
€554m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
AM (9)
€290m
COM (13)
€261m
AVL (10)
€220m
INT (5)
€220m
FP (11)
€214m
RL (12)
€212m
NAP (12)
€206m
VS (19)
€193m
GAL (9)
€173m
BD (8)
€170m
FEN (14)
€162m
SC (9)
€146m
AR (6)
€138m
LIL (13)
€133m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
LYO (9)
€122m
SD (16)
€115m
PE (11)
€106m
FEY (11)
€93m
CBK (10)
€92m
OP (12)
€84m
FCZ (13)
€62m
CEL (11)
€56m
LEN (8)
€52m
AAF (11)
€44m
SP (14)
€43m
DZ (15)
€33m
USG (10)
€32m
SP (10)
€27m
SG (11)
€26m
NN (11)
€22m
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
SB (12)
€15m
UC (10)
€14m
AAR (10)
€14m
LL (5)
€13m
HOM (12)
€12m
LS (10)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
ON (9)
€7m
CEL (12)
€7m
MA (9)
€7m
SF (7)
€5m
FT (7)
€4m
KŽ (11)
€4m
KA (9)
€4m
SR (14)
€3m
ARA (9)
€3m
VR (12)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
KUP (9)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAR (6)
€1m
KK (9)
€1m
LRI (11)
€1m
Arsenal's attack is €438m more valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€608m vs €170m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
BAR (8)
€324m
ARS (4)
€290m
RM (5)
€238m
MU (7)
€236m
INT (10)
€232m
LIV (6)
€201m
BM (6)
€187m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
AM (6)
€155m
BD (7)
€146m
AR (5)
€118m
RL (6)
€109m
FP (6)
€105m
LIL (4)
€102m
NAP (7)
€101m
VS (10)
€92m
SC (9)
€91m
COM (7)
€83m
LYO (8)
€82m
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
PE (5)
€60m
VIL (4)
€52m
OP (6)
€47m
FEY (4)
€43m
USG (7)
€38m
SP (8)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
SP (10)
€27m
BOD (7)
€27m
LEN (5)
€24m
CBK (5)
€23m
FCZ (6)
€21m
CEL (5)
€20m
SD (4)
€19m
AAF (5)
€16m
AAR (10)
€14m
SG (4)
€14m
VIK (5)
€12m
LL (6)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
UC (6)
€10m
LP (3)
€9m
LS (5)
€8m
SB (6)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NN (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
HBS (3)
€5m
HOM (6)
€4m
ON (4)
€3m
KUP (9)
€3m
KA (5)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
SR (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
CEL (4)
€1m
KK (8)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LAR (7)
€1m
LRI (4)
€0m
Arsenal's midfield is €144m more valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€290m vs €146m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
ARS (12)
€508m
PSG (11)
€409m
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
BM (13)
€336m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
BD (14)
€214m
AM (10)
€208m
RL (13)
€185m
SC (13)
€176m
AVL (11)
€156m
NAP (14)
€152m
VIL (12)
€148m
FP (13)
€148m
VS (25)
€145m
COM (14)
€144m
PE (13)
€115m
LEN (14)
€112m
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
FEY (15)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
CBK (12)
€81m
LIL (10)
€76m
RB (10)
€70m
SP (20)
€61m
SD (13)
€52m
OP (11)
€44m
CEL (11)
€41m
FCZ (13)
€33m
DZ (17)
€30m
LP (12)
€28m
USG (9)
€28m
BOD (10)
€26m
NN (13)
€26m
AAF (10)
€26m
SP (11)
€22m
LL (11)
€20m
LS (12)
€19m
VIK (12)
€15m
UC (9)
€13m
SB (10)
€13m
SG (11)
€13m
MA (9)
€8m
AAR (8)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
SF (10)
€7m
GZ (10)
€6m
CEL (15)
€6m
HOM (12)
€6m
HBS (10)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
KŽ (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
ER (13)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
SR (10)
€2m
VR (10)
€2m
LAR (10)
€2m
KK (11)
€1m
LRI (10)
€1m
Arsenal's defence is €295m more valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€508m vs €214m).
World: UEFA Champions League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full World: UEFA Champions League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Fenerbahçe
Levski Sofia
Sabah FA
Slovan Bratislava
Bodo/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb
Celje
FK Crvena Zvezda
Aarhus
AEK Athens FC
Viking
Lyon
Kauno Žalgiris
Shamrock Rovers
Lask Linz
Celtic
Omonia Nicosia
Vikingur Reykjavik
Sturm Graz
Ararat-Armenia
Sparta Praha
Kairat Almaty
Union St. Gilloise
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
FC Thun
Gornik Zabrze
Saburtalo
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Universitatea Craiova
KI Klaksvik
Mjallby AIF
Inter
FC Porto
Lille
Real Madrid
Slavia Praha
Como
Galatasaray
Barcelona
Paris Saint Germain
Feyenoord
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