AS Roma’s 65 % chance of victory makes them the clear favourite, a figure that reflects their strong home form - averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against similar opponents - while Fiorentina’s away average of 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded shows a defensive frailty at this venue. The model picks a home win, and the expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate scoring game, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 12.1 %. The probability of a draw sits at 22 %, and the away win probability is 13 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7 % with a 3 % edge), Under 6.5 (98.5 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (95.9 % with a 4 % edge), Home +2 handicap (95.7 % with a 4 % edge), and Under 5.5 (95.5 % with a 3 % edge). The home side’s recent five-game winning streak and a 2-0 victory over Hellas Verona add momentum, whereas Fiorentina’s last match ended 1-1 against Atalanta, leaving them on a draw.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as AS Roma extended their five-game winning streak with a 4-0 triumph over Fiorentina, confirming the favoured home win that carried a 65 % probability. The final score matched the actual result, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7 %, Under 6.5 at 98.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.9 %, Home +2 handicap at 95.7 %, and Under 5.5 at 95.5 %. The match delivered on the model’s high-confidence selections, showcasing its accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AS Roma win✓ Hit
64.9%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.72
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.78
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.01
Marathonbet
3.94
Pinnacle
3.88
Superbet
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
Fiorentina win✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.88
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.15
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.08
Marathonbet
5.05
Betano
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AS Roma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.97
2.21
0.64
1.44
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.31
2.00
0.71
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.82
0.71
2.43
0.57
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.13
1.20
0.87
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.40
1.36
1.09
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
0.67
0.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
@ 1.28+4.9%
Under 1.5
21.4%
@ 3.58-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.89+3.6%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.92-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.91
Under
1xBet
2.01
SBO
1.99
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
@ 3.18+2.1%
Under 3.5
68.2%
@ 1.34-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
@ 1.81-2.4%
No
50.8%
@ 1.93+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.88
888Sport
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
No
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%@ 7.71+6.1%
1-0
10.9%@ 6.66+4.0%
1-1
10.6%@ 6.75+3.7%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.67+3.8%
3-0
8.2%@ 12.89+4.6%
0-0
6.8%@ 10.36+2.4%
3-1
6.6%@ 12.75+3.0%
4-0 ✓
4.1%@ 25.47+2.3%
AS Roma goals ↓
Fiorentina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
3.8%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.2%
6.6%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.1%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AS Roma goals (down), columns = Fiorentina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
AS Roma is 0.82 points better than Fiorentina in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
AS Roma is 0.47 goals better than Fiorentina in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
AS Roma is 0.50 goals better than Fiorentina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
AS Roma is 5.3 percentage points better than Fiorentina in terms of average possession (56% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AS Roma
For 6.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
For 3.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AS Roma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.8
8.5
4.2
4.3
4.1
28.3
28.3
28.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
8.6
8.6
8.7
4.3
4.8
3.7
28.2
27.7
28.9
vs Weaker (28)
8.7
9.0
8.4
4.1
3.9
4.3
28.3
28.8
27.8
% over line
36%
36%
36%
68%
68%
68%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
32%
32%
32%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.4
4.6
4.9
4.3
28.1
28.5
27.8
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
28.8
28.3
29.3
vs Similar (32)
8.4
9.3
7.5
5.1
5.4
4.7
27.5
27.6
27.4
vs Weaker (12)
9.4
8.8
10.0
3.8
4.0
3.7
29.5
31.2
27.8
% over line
44%
50%
38%
72%
73%
71%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
28%
27%
29%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Inter
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Venezia
9.1
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Sassuolo
4.3
AS Roma
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.7
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
32.6%
@ 2.15-10.8%
Under 9.5
67.4%
@ 1.64+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.16
Unibet
2.15
Under
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.2%
@ 1.40-8.0%
Under 3.5
41.8%
@ 2.75+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.72
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.3%
Under 21.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AS Roma or Draw✓ Hit
85.8%
Avg Implied 80.0% · @ 1.18
Edge
+5.8%
65%
22%
13%
covers AS Roma + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
AS Roma or Fiorentina✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
-0.3%
65%
22%
13%
covers AS Roma + Fiorentina
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Draw or Fiorentina✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 44.4% · @ 2.13
Edge
-5.5%
65%
22%
13%
covers Draw + Fiorentina
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Unibet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AS Roma over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.3%
@ 1.15+2.3%
Under
16.7%
@ 4.92-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.85
AS Roma over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.4%
@ 1.79+1.0%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.96-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
AS Roma over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.6%
@ 3.48-0.1%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.27+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.60
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
AS Roma over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
10.7%
@ 7.57-1.6%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.40
Under
Unibet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Fiorentina over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
52.8%
@ 1.53-8.0%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.38+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Fiorentina over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 3.63-8.4%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.26+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.92
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Fiorentina over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.01-5.3%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
Superbet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Fiorentina over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 25.17-3.1%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AS Roma, so a minus line means AS Roma give that many goals of a start and Fiorentina receive them. At -1, AS Roma must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AS Roma win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AS Roma)Actual: AS Roma
AS Roma -2
16.9%
@ 5.85+1.4%
Draw -2
19.3%
@ 4.85+0.7%
Fiorentina +2
63.8%
@ 1.37-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Handicap -1 (AS Roma)Actual: AS Roma
AS Roma -1
36.2%
@ 2.86+4.7%
Draw -1
24.9%
@ 3.47-1.1%
Fiorentina +1
38.9%
@ 2.12-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.86
Bet365
2.75
Draw
Superbet
3.65
Bet365
3.60
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.19
Unibet
2.14
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Handicap +1 (AS Roma)Actual: AS Roma
AS Roma +1
85.8%
@ 1.17+8.5%
Draw +1
9.8%
@ 6.28-4.6%
Fiorentina -1
4.3%
@ 10.98-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Handicap +2 (AS Roma)Actual: AS Roma
AS Roma +2
95.7%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Draw +2
3.4%
@ 14.50-3.1%
Fiorentina -2
0.9%
@ 32.50-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AS Roma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.27
1.00
0.21
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
0.71
0.12
1.00
0.29
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.55
0.55
0.45
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.4%
@ 1.37+3.9%
Under 0.5
27.6%
@ 2.98-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.72+0.1%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.43-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.85
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.76
Under
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 6.74+0.6%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.09-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Under
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.0%
@ 1.72+5.0%
Under
41.0%
@ 2.02-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
AS Roma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 4.53+3.1%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.16-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Betano
4.60
Unibet
4.60
Superbet
4.35
Under
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
AS Roma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 11.62-3.0%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.5%
@ 2.71-1.9%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.42+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 9.68-3.8%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 27.00-2.9%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AS Roma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.21
0.43
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
1.00
0.57
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.59
1.43
0.29
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.73
0.47
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.85
0.82
0.64
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.0%
@ 1.23+4.1%
Under 0.5
20.0%
@ 3.89-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Under
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Betano
3.95
Marathonbet
3.94
10Bet
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.5%
@ 2.10+1.6%
Under 1.5
53.5%
@ 1.71-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.2%
@ 4.45-0.8%
Under 2.5
79.8%
@ 1.19+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
69.5%
@ 1.50+7.4%
Under
30.5%
@ 2.46-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.40
AS Roma over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
29.8%
@ 3.33+1.9%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.29-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
AS Roma over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
7.6%
@ 8.37-3.5%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.70
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.0%
@ 2.18-3.6%
Under
61.0%
@ 1.62+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 7.10-4.3%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.06+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 18.75-3.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.01
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.2%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.06
Unibet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
+1.6%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
88.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.3%
1.21
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.8%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.6%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.23
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.1%
1.37
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.4%
1.17
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.2%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.37
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.5%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.3%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.4%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
1.37
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.2%
1.29
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-1.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AS Roma · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Donyell Malen50%
Antonio Arena33%
Lorenzo Pellegrini21%
Evan Ferguson18%
Artem Dovbyk17%
Matías Soulé17%
Wesley13%
Evan Ndicka12%
Mario Hermoso11%
Paulo Dybala11%
Tommaso Baldanzi10%
Gianluca Mancini9%
Niccolò Pisilli9%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Robinio Vaz7%
Neil El Aynaoui6%
Manu Koné5%
Bryan Cristante4%
Jan Ziółkowski4%
Devyne Rensch3%
Zeki Çelik2%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Leon Bailey0%
Kostas Tsimikas0%
Bryan Zaragoza0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mario Hermoso31%
Gianluca Mancini27%
Angeliño22%
Tommaso Baldanzi20%
Wesley18%
Stephan El Shaarawy18%
Neil El Aynaoui18%
Bryan Cristante17%
Jan Ziółkowski17%
Evan Ndicka17%
Bryan Zaragoza17%
Niccolò Pisilli12%
Zeki Çelik11%
Daniele Ghilardi11%
Manu Koné8%
Kostas Tsimikas8%
Devyne Rensch6%
Lorenzo Pellegrini6%
Donyell Malen5%
Matías Soulé5%
Evan Ferguson5%
Mile Svilar0%
Paulo Dybala0%
Leon Bailey0%
Artem Dovbyk0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Antonio Arena0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Paulo Dybala22%
Leon Bailey18%
Bryan Zaragoza17%
Matías Soulé17%
Devyne Rensch12%
Lorenzo Pellegrini12%
Niccolò Pisilli12%
Artem Dovbyk11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evan Ferguson9%
Zeki Çelik9%
Manu Koné8%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Neil El Aynaoui6%
Mario Hermoso6%
Gianluca Mancini4%
Bryan Cristante4%
Kostas Tsimikas4%
Wesley3%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Evan Ndicka0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Jan Ziółkowski0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Antonio Arena0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Donyell Malen55%
Antonio Arena33%
Evan Ferguson23%
Paulo Dybala19%
Matías Soulé17%
Lorenzo Pellegrini9%
Stephan El Shaarawy7%
Evan Ndicka5%
Bryan Cristante4%
Niccolò Pisilli3%
Mario Hermoso3%
Manu Koné3%
Wesley3%
Gianluca Mancini2%
Angeliño0%
Mile Svilar0%
Leon Bailey0%
Kostas Tsimikas0%
Artem Dovbyk0%
Zeki Çelik0%
Devyne Rensch0%
Neil El Aynaoui0%
Bryan Zaragoza0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Jan Ziółkowski0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Lorenzo Venturino0%
Fiorentina
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
AS Roma's squad is €141m more valuable than Fiorentina's (€471m vs €330m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
AS Roma's attack is €13m more valuable than Fiorentina's (€138m vs €125m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
AS Roma's midfield is €11m more valuable than Fiorentina's (€118m vs €107m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
AS Roma's defence is €117m more valuable than Fiorentina's (€215m vs €98m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia