This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.97
1.13
2.80
1.07
3.13
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
3.14
1.86
2.67
2.33
3.50
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
2.91
0.91
2.83
0.75
3.00
1.09
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.3%
0-0
5.7%
0-1 ✓
5.5%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Barcelona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.5%
4.7%
2.2%
0.8%
1
6.6%
12%
7.7%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.0%
6.4%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.5%
4.9%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Barcelona goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Sociedad
2.57
Celta Vigo
2.50
Valencia
2.40
Osasuna
2.40
Barcelona
2.33
Atletico Madrid
2.29
Pontevedra
2.25
Elche
2.25
Rayo Vallecano
2.25
Ourense CF
2.25
Almeria
2.25
Real Betis
2.25
Zamora
2.00
Barbastro
2.00
Huesca
2.00
Eldense
2.00
Castellón
2.00
Las Palmas
2.00
FC Cartagena
2.00
Alaves
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Getafe
2.00
Sevilla
2.00
Zaragoza
2.00
Marbella
2.00
Girona
2.00
Leganes
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Real Madrid
1.83
Sant Andreu
1.50
Manises
1.50
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.50
Barakaldo
1.50
Villamuriel
1.50
Conquense
1.50
Espanyol
1.50
Gimnastic
1.50
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Yeclano
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Astur
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
FC Andorra
1.50
Vic
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Ejea
1.50
Salamanca UDS
1.50
Parla Escuela
1.50
Villarreal
1.50
Burgos
1.50
UD San Pedro
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
Chiclana
1.50
Granada CF
1.33
Deportiva Minera
1.33
Valladolid
1.33
Tenerife
1.33
Malaga
1.00
Escobedo
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Oviedo
1.00
Orihuela
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Estepona
1.00
Eibar
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
UD Logroñés
1.00
Ponferradina
0.67
San Tirso
0.50
Olot
0.50
Cacereño
0.50
Ontiñena
0.50
Gévora
0.50
Athletic Club
0.50
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.00
Bergantiños
0.00
Tudelano
0.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
0.00
Promesas EDF
0.00
Lanzarote
0.00
Sonseca
0.00
Alcorcon
0.00
Sporting Mahón
0.00
Ibiza
0.00
Atlético Paso
0.00
Jove Español
0.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.00
Llanera
0.00
Melilla CD
0.00
Amorebieta
0.00
Albacete
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Móstoles
0.00
Don Benito
0.00
Cuarte
0.00
Mirandes
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Alfaro
0.00
Compostela
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Laredo
0.00
Xerez
0.00
Badalona
0.00
Beasain
0.00
Cortes
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Dolorense
0.00
Las Rozas
0.00
Poblense
0.00
SS Reyes
0.00
Guijuelo
0.00
Juventud Torremolinos
0.00
L'Hospitalet
0.00
Ciudad de Lucena
0.00
Águilas
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Lleida Esportiu
0.00
Hércules
0.00
Numancia
0.00
Levante
0.00
CD Coria
0.00
Atletico Madrid is 0.05 points worse than Barcelona in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celta Vigo
4.25
Zaragoza
3.50
Barcelona
3.50
Lanzarote
3.00
Unionistas de Salamanca
3.00
Las Palmas
3.00
Yeclano
3.00
Rayo Vallecano
3.00
Villarreal
3.00
Real Betis
2.75
Atletico Madrid
2.71
Valladolid
2.67
Real Madrid
2.67
Osasuna
2.60
Almeria
2.50
Burgos
2.50
UD San Pedro
2.50
Real Sociedad
2.43
Racing Santander
2.33
Sevilla
2.33
Leganes
2.20
Barbastro
2.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
2.00
Deportiva Minera
2.00
Barakaldo
2.00
Espanyol
2.00
Pontevedra
2.00
Elche
2.00
Móstoles
2.00
Vic
2.00
Girona
2.00
Chiclana
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Valencia
1.60
Sant Andreu
1.50
Manises
1.50
Estepona
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Astur
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Ourense CF
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
Granada CF
1.33
Zamora
1.00
Malaga
1.00
Bergantiños
1.00
Huesca
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Castellón
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.00
Albacete
1.00
FC Cartagena
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Don Benito
1.00
Cuarte
1.00
Mirandes
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Olot
1.00
Dolorense
1.00
Cacereño
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Poblense
1.00
SS Reyes
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Guijuelo
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
1.00
Ejea
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
L'Hospitalet
1.00
Marbella
1.00
Tenerife
1.00
Ciudad de Lucena
1.00
Lleida Esportiu
1.00
Gévora
1.00
Levante
1.00
Athletic Club
1.00
Eldense
0.67
Villamuriel
0.50
Conquense
0.50
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
San Tirso
0.50
Ontiñena
0.50
Salamanca UDS
0.50
Parla Escuela
0.50
Ponferradina
0.33
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.00
Escobedo
0.00
Tudelano
0.00
Promesas EDF
0.00
Sonseca
0.00
Alcorcon
0.00
Sporting Mahón
0.00
Ibiza
0.00
Atlético Paso
0.00
Jove Español
0.00
Llanera
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Melilla CD
0.00
Amorebieta
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Alfaro
0.00
Compostela
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Laredo
0.00
Eibar
0.00
Xerez
0.00
Badalona
0.00
Beasain
0.00
Cortes
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Las Rozas
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Águilas
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Hércules
0.00
Numancia
0.00
CD Coria
0.00
Atletico Madrid is 0.79 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 3.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Escobedo
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Eibar
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Girona
0.00
Huesca
0.33
Zamora
0.50
Castellón
0.50
Conquense
0.50
Pontevedra
0.50
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
Yeclano
0.50
Cadiz
0.50
Alaves
0.50
Parla Escuela
0.50
Eldense
0.67
FC Cartagena
0.67
Marbella
0.67
Tenerife
0.67
Real Sociedad
0.71
Atletico Madrid
0.86
Malaga
1.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Sonseca
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Ponferradina
1.00
Alcorcon
1.00
Granada CF
1.00
Ibiza
1.00
Atlético Paso
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Espanyol
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna
1.00
Elche
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Compostela
1.00
Xerez
1.00
Beasain
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Vic
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Villarreal
1.00
Águilas
1.00
Hércules
1.00
Numancia
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.00
Barcelona
1.17
Valencia
1.20
Celta Vigo
1.25
Ourense CF
1.25
Barbastro
1.33
Osasuna
1.40
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.50
Barakaldo
1.50
Estepona
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Rayo Vallecano
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Ejea
1.50
Almeria
1.50
Zaragoza
1.50
Burgos
1.50
Athletic Club
1.50
Las Palmas
1.67
Sevilla
1.67
Real Madrid
1.67
Racing Ferrol
1.67
Real Betis
1.75
Leganes
1.80
Bergantiños
2.00
Promesas EDF
2.00
Sant Andreu
2.00
Manises
2.00
Deportiva Minera
2.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00
Valladolid
2.00
Llanera
2.00
Albacete
2.00
Don Benito
2.00
Mirandes
2.00
Alfaro
2.00
Badalona
2.00
Astur
2.00
Olot
2.00
Cortes
2.00
Cacereño
2.00
SS Reyes
2.00
Guijuelo
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Juventud Torremolinos
2.00
Ciudad de Lucena
2.00
Villamuriel
2.50
San Tirso
2.50
Chiclana
2.50
Cuarte
3.00
Mallorca
3.00
Dolorense
3.00
Las Rozas
3.00
Real Jaén
3.00
Lleida Esportiu
3.00
CD Coria
3.00
Salamanca UDS
3.50
UD San Pedro
3.50
Gévora
3.50
Ceuta 6 de Junio
4.00
Lanzarote
4.00
Sporting Mahón
4.00
Melilla CD
4.00
Amorebieta
4.00
Utebo
4.00
Extremadura 1924
4.00
Ontiñena
4.00
Levante
4.00
Tudelano
5.00
Jove Español
5.00
Móstoles
5.00
L'Hospitalet
5.00
Laredo
6.00
Poblense
6.00
Atletico Madrid is 0.31 goals better than Barcelona in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
58%
Real Madrid
50%
Atletico Madrid
43%
Real Sociedad
42%
Atletico Madrid is 15.0 percentage points worse than Barcelona in terms of average possession (43% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 4.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
For 5.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.9 · Against 12.3 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
10.2
8.0
3.7
4.5
3.0
22.1
22.1
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.1
11.8
8.4
4.2
6.4
2.3
22.0
23.4
20.6
vs Weaker (39)
8.8
9.8
7.9
3.6
4.0
3.2
22.1
21.7
22.5
% over line
45%
73%
18%
56%
70%
44%
52%
55%
50%
% under line
55%
27%
82%
44%
30%
56%
48%
45%
50%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.3
3.8
2.9
4.7
21.3
20.7
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
11.4
10.3
12.0
3.8
1.5
5.6
21.1
17.3
23.4
vs Weaker (41)
10.4
10.9
9.9
3.8
3.2
4.4
21.4
21.3
21.5
% over line
70%
73%
67%
52%
33%
69%
37%
27%
46%
% under line
30%
27%
33%
48%
67%
31%
63%
73%
54%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Real Madrid
10.6
Barcelona
10.6
Deportivo La Coruna
10.5
Racing Santander
10.0
Granada CF
9.8
Real Sociedad
9.8
Numancia
9.7
Ibiza
9.7
Levante
9.7
Albacete
9.6
Zaragoza
9.6
Rayo Vallecano
9.5
Huesca
9.5
Alaves
9.5
Cultural Leonesa
9.5
Almeria
9.4
Las Palmas
9.4
Cordoba
9.4
Oviedo
9.4
Eldense
9.3
Ponferradina
9.3
Osasuna
9.3
Eibar
9.3
Villarreal
9.3
Sevilla
9.3
Sporting Gijon
9.3
Tenerife
9.2
Malaga
9.2
Athletic Club
9.2
Burgos
9.2
Valladolid
9.2
Valencia
9.1
Castellón
9.1
Real Betis
9.1
Atletico Madrid
9.1
Gimnastic
9.0
Espanyol
9.0
Girona
9.0
Mirandes
9.0
Racing Ferrol
9.0
Mallorca
9.0
Alcorcon
9.0
Leganes
8.8
Elche
8.8
FC Cartagena
8.8
FC Andorra
8.8
Amorebieta
8.8
Cadiz
8.7
Celta Vigo
8.2
Getafe
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.4
Getafe
6.3
Zaragoza
6.2
Villarreal
6.0
Gimnastic
5.9
Cultural Leonesa
5.6
Alaves
5.6
Numancia
5.6
Las Palmas
5.6
Malaga
5.5
Valladolid
5.5
Mirandes
5.4
Cadiz
5.4
Rayo Vallecano
5.3
Elche
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Cordoba
5.3
Burgos
5.2
Almeria
5.2
Granada CF
5.2
Real Betis
5.1
Girona
5.1
Sevilla
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.1
Tenerife
5.0
Oviedo
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alcorcon
4.9
Albacete
4.9
Huesca
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
FC Andorra
4.8
Leganes
4.7
Eibar
4.7
Osasuna
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Atletico Madrid
4.5
Barcelona
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Valencia
4.5
Amorebieta
4.4
Levante
4.4
Racing Ferrol
4.4
Mallorca
4.3
FC Cartagena
4.3
Castellón
4.2
Deportivo La Coruna
4.2
Ibiza
4.2
Real Madrid
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Numancia
30.6
Getafe
30.3
Gimnastic
30.1
Cultural Leonesa
29.8
Cadiz
29.4
Racing Santander
28.9
Cordoba
28.9
Malaga
28.5
Elche
28.5
Ibiza
28.1
Alaves
27.9
Zaragoza
27.6
Tenerife
27.4
Espanyol
27.3
Oviedo
27.1
Almeria
27.0
Real Betis
26.6
Granada CF
26.5
Rayo Vallecano
26.3
Mirandes
26.3
Racing Ferrol
26.1
Leganes
25.9
Castellón
25.7
Real Sociedad
25.4
Eldense
25.3
Valladolid
25.2
FC Andorra
25.0
Villarreal
25.0
Levante
24.7
Alcorcon
24.6
Valencia
24.6
Mallorca
24.5
Las Palmas
24.5
Ponferradina
24.4
Celta Vigo
24.4
Amorebieta
24.3
Sporting Gijon
24.3
Burgos
23.9
Osasuna
23.8
FC Cartagena
23.7
Eibar
23.7
Huesca
23.6
Girona
23.6
Athletic Club
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.5
Sevilla
23.4
Albacete
23.2
Atletico Madrid
22.7
Real Madrid
22.5
Barcelona
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
97.7%
Under 9.5
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.6%
Under 3.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.3%
Under 21.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atletico Madrid or Draw✗ Miss
68.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Atletico Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid or Barcelona✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Atletico Madrid + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Barcelona✓ Hit
58.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Draw + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atletico Madrid, so a minus line means Atletico Madrid give that many goals of a start and Barcelona receive them. At -1, Atletico Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atletico Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Barcelona
Atletico Madrid -2
9.2%
Draw -2
13.0%
Barcelona +2
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Barcelona
Atletico Madrid -1
22.2%
Draw -1
19.8%
Barcelona +1
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Draw
Atletico Madrid +1
68.0%
Draw +1
16.9%
Barcelona -1
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atletico Madrid)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid +2
84.9%
Draw +2
9.6%
Barcelona -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.71
0.36
1.19
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.88
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.23
0.73
0.36
1.27
0.09
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.43
1.60
0.27
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.00
2.33
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.26
1.42
0.08
1.18
0.45
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.50
1.29
0.50
1.25
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.88
1.00
1.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (22)
1.36
0.36
1.36
0.27
1.36
0.45
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.70
1.20
0.80
2.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.00
0.86
0.33
1.33
3.25
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.61
0.65
1.42
0.67
1.82
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 10.5 corners
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 11.5 corners
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julián Álvarez42%
Alexander Sørloth35%
Antoine Griezmann25%
Ángel Correa16%
Marcos Llorente11%
Samuel Lino9%
Clément Lenglet9%
Conor Gallagher9%
Giuliano Simeone9%
Rodrigo de Paul6%
César Azpilicueta5%
Rodrigo Riquelme4%
Robin Le Normand3%
José María Giménez3%
Pablo Barrios2%
Koke2%
Nahuel Molina2%
Axel Witsel0%
Jan Oblak0%
Thomas Lemar0%
Juan Musso0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Javi Galán0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Clément Lenglet32%
Javi Galán31%
Robin Le Normand30%
José María Giménez26%
Reinildo Mandava21%
César Azpilicueta20%
Rodrigo de Paul18%
Pablo Barrios15%
Giuliano Simeone13%
Koke12%
Ángel Correa11%
Julián Álvarez11%
Alexander Sørloth10%
Axel Witsel10%
Samuel Lino7%
Conor Gallagher7%
Nahuel Molina5%
Antoine Griezmann4%
Marcos Llorente2%
Jan Oblak0%
Thomas Lemar0%
Juan Musso0%
Rodrigo Riquelme0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Samuel Lino18%
Giuliano Simeone17%
Antoine Griezmann17%
Rodrigo de Paul16%
Marcos Llorente15%
Javi Galán14%
Julián Álvarez13%
Conor Gallagher13%
Pablo Barrios10%
Ángel Correa9%
Nahuel Molina7%
Clément Lenglet6%
Axel Witsel5%
Koke5%
Alexander Sørloth4%
Rodrigo Riquelme4%
José María Giménez3%
Jan Oblak0%
Thomas Lemar0%
César Azpilicueta0%
Juan Musso0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Robin Le Normand0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexander Sørloth27%
Julián Álvarez23%
Antoine Griezmann15%
Samuel Lino11%
Pablo Barrios7%
Ángel Correa7%
Conor Gallagher4%
Marcos Llorente2%
Rodrigo de Paul2%
Axel Witsel0%
Jan Oblak0%
José María Giménez0%
Thomas Lemar0%
Koke0%
Clément Lenglet0%
César Azpilicueta0%
Juan Musso0%
Nahuel Molina0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Robin Le Normand0%
Javi Galán0%
Rodrigo Riquelme0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Lewandowski54%
Raphinha40%
Ferran Torres35%
Dani Olmo29%
Lamine Yamal28%
Pablo Torre21%
Fermín López16%
Eric García11%
Pedri11%
Ronald Araújo8%
Jules Koundé8%
Pau Víctor7%
Iñigo Martínez7%
Gavi5%
Frenkie de Jong4%
Marc Casadó3%
Gerard Martín2%
Pau Cubarsí2%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Ansu Fati0%
Alejandro Balde0%
Hector Fort0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Marc Bernal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marc Bernal67%
Andreas Christensen50%
Iñigo Martínez18%
Sergi Domínguez17%
Frenkie de Jong16%
Gavi15%
Fermín López13%
Ronald Araújo12%
Marc Casadó12%
Raphinha11%
Pau Víctor10%
Hector Fort10%
Jules Koundé10%
Gerard Martín10%
Pau Cubarsí9%
Eric García9%
Ansu Fati9%
Alejandro Balde9%
Lamine Yamal6%
Pedri5%
Ferran Torres5%
Iñaki Peña5%
Robert Lewandowski4%
Dani Olmo3%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Pablo Torre0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lamine Yamal36%
Raphinha29%
Alejandro Balde16%
Fermín López16%
Marc Casadó15%
Pablo Torre14%
Pedri14%
Gerard Martín12%
Ferran Torres12%
Iñigo Martínez11%
Dani Olmo11%
Jules Koundé10%
Ronald Araújo8%
Pau Cubarsí7%
Eric García7%
Frenkie de Jong4%
Robert Lewandowski4%
Pau Víctor3%
Gavi2%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Ansu Fati0%
Hector Fort0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Marc Bernal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lamine Yamal58%
Robert Lewandowski42%
Raphinha38%
Ferran Torres19%
Dani Olmo16%
Fermín López16%
Ansu Fati9%
Jules Koundé4%
Pedri2%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Frenkie de Jong0%
Eric García0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Iñigo Martínez0%
Ronald Araújo0%
Alejandro Balde0%
Gerard Martín0%
Pau Víctor0%
Pablo Torre0%
Gavi0%
Marc Casadó0%
Hector Fort0%
Pau Cubarsí0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Marc Bernal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
ZAR (20)
€9m
ELD (20)
€7m
MIR (21)
€6m
CL (20)
€6m
HUE (21)
€5m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €629m less valuable than Barcelona's (€653m vs €1282m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
ALM (11)
€38m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
COR (9)
€4m
ELD (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€3m
HUE (9)
€2m
MIR (6)
€2m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €300m less valuable than Barcelona's (€290m vs €590m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
HUE (4)
€1m
MIR (4)
€1m
CL (4)
€1m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €168m less valuable than Barcelona's (€155m vs €324m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€2m
HUE (8)
€2m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €160m less valuable than Barcelona's (€208m vs €368m).
Spain: La Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Valencia
Real Sociedad
Getafe
Alaves
Espanyol
Sevilla
Girona
Leganes
Las Palmas
Valladolid