The contest between Atletico Madrid and Manchester United is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 33% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 40% for Manchester United to triumph. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
Atletico, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Manchester United, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.0%), Away +2 handicap (84.9%) and Under 4.5 (84.5%). Each pick carries its own probability, and no other outcome is given a win percentage. The match remains open, with both sides capable of turning the tide.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atletico Madrid win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Manchester United win
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.12
1.25
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
2.12
1.88
2.75
1.50
1.50
2.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.85
1.55
2.00
1.18
1.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.12
1.38
1.57
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.35
2.45
1.55
1.56
1.11
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
1.22
1.25
1.25
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
0-0
7.2%
1-0
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
Atletico Madrid goals ↓
Manchester United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
7.7%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.8%
13%
8.8%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.3%
7.9%
5.9%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atletico Madrid goals (down), columns = Manchester United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
European competition: teams are ranked by a cross-league strength score - each side's domestic attack and defence made comparable via the model's fitted league strengths (stronger leagues weighted up). Each side's actual domestic figures are shown below.
🏆 Cross-league strength
0-100 · adjusted for league strength · 67 teams
Arsenal
100
Manchester City
97
Bayern München
90
Manchester United
89
Liverpool
87
Barcelona
86
Aston Villa
86
Inter
84
Real Madrid
84
Como
82
Borussia Dortmund
82
Paris Saint Germain
81
AS Roma
80
Sporting CP
79
FC Porto
79
Villarreal
78
Napoli
77
VfB Stuttgart
76
Atletico Madrid
76
Lens
76
RB Leipzig
76
Real Betis
74
Lille
71
Lyon
70
Union St. Gilloise
70
Viking
70
Bodo/Glimt
67
Club Brugge KV
67
PSV Eindhoven
66
Galatasaray
64
Slavia Praha
62
Fenerbahçe
60
Feyenoord
60
NEC Nijmegen
58
Omonia Nicosia
56
Kauno Žalgiris
56
Dinamo Zagreb
55
Lech Poznan
54
Gornik Zabrze
53
Shakhtar Donetsk
49
Levski Sofia
49
FC Thun
47
Sabah FA
46
Sparta Praha
45
Slovan Bratislava
45
Aarhus
45
Hapoel Beer Sheva
44
Heart Of Midlothian
43
FK Crvena Zvezda
43
Sturm Graz
43
Celtic
42
Lask Linz
41
Olympiakos Piraeus
41
Universitatea Craiova
39
Mjallby AIF
36
Kairat Almaty
30
Vikingur Reykjavik
29
Celje
25
Shamrock Rovers
22
KuPS
21
Ararat-Armenia
19
AEK Athens FC
15
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11
Larne
10
KI Klaksvik
7
Saburtalo
1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0
Atletico Madrid is 13 pts weaker cross-league than Manchester United(76 vs 89 · ranks #19 vs #4 of 67).
Atletico Madrid 1.82 (Spain: La Liga) · Manchester United 1.87 (England: Premier League). Domestic-league average points per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Atletico Madrid 1.63 (Spain: La Liga) · Manchester United 1.82 (England: Premier League). Domestic-league goals scored per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Atletico Madrid 1.16 (Spain: La Liga) · Manchester United 1.32 (England: Premier League). Domestic-league goals conceded per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
⏱️ Possession
Not compared for European ties.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atletico Madrid
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester United
For 6.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.9
10.6
3.3
3.1
3.5
21.2
20.9
21.4
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
7.0
7.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
20.5
18.0
23.0
vs Similar (11)
9.6
8.8
10.5
4.5
4.3
4.6
22.6
25.2
20.0
vs Weaker (37)
10.7
10.5
10.9
3.0
2.8
3.2
20.9
19.9
21.7
% over line
60%
53%
67%
44%
38%
50%
52%
47%
57%
% under line
40%
47%
33%
56%
62%
50%
48%
53%
43%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.5
3.5
3.8
3.1
21.3
21.0
21.6
vs Stronger (3)
6.5
7.0
6.0
1.7
2.5
0.0
18.5
21.0
16.0
vs Similar (32)
9.5
9.5
9.6
4.0
4.3
3.6
22.2
21.6
23.0
vs Weaker (15)
10.1
10.4
9.9
2.7
3.0
2.6
19.6
19.4
19.7
% over line
50%
50%
50%
54%
65%
42%
45%
45%
45%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
46%
35%
58%
55%
55%
55%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sabah FA
12.0
Viking
12.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11.5
Larne
11.4
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Slavia Praha
11.0
Bodo/Glimt
10.9
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Kairat Almaty
10.4
Club Brugge KV
10.4
RB Leipzig
10.4
Lask Linz
10.3
Lens
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
KI Klaksvik
10.2
FC Thun
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Feyenoord
10.1
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Sturm Graz
10.0
Slovan Bratislava
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Sparta Praha
9.9
Lyon
9.9
Mjallby AIF
9.8
Sporting CP
9.8
KuPS
9.8
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Ararat-Armenia
9.6
Aarhus
9.6
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Lille
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
Celje
9.4
Inter
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Villarreal
9.2
Kauno Žalgiris
9.1
Real Betis
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Saburtalo
9.0
Union St. Gilloise
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
8.7
AEK Athens FC
8.7
Universitatea Craiova
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Vikingur Reykjavik
8.6
Napoli
8.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ararat-Armenia
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Sabah FA
5.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
AEK Athens FC
5.4
FC Porto
5.2
Larne
5.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
5.1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Universitatea Craiova
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
FC Thun
4.9
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
Saburtalo
4.9
Celje
4.9
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.8
Sparta Praha
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Levski Sofia
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Galatasaray
4.5
Como
4.5
Lens
4.5
KI Klaksvik
4.4
Villarreal
4.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
Kairat Almaty
4.4
Lille
4.4
Slavia Praha
4.3
Barcelona
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Viking
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
Celtic
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Lask Linz
3.7
Feyenoord
3.7
Mjallby AIF
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Kauno Žalgiris
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
RB Leipzig
3.4
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.3
KuPS
3.2
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
30.0
Sabah FA
29.4
AEK Athens FC
29.3
AS Roma
28.0
FC Thun
28.0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Slavia Praha
26.9
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Como
26.1
Kairat Almaty
26.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
25.7
Slovan Bratislava
25.5
Larne
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.3
Mjallby AIF
25.1
Lyon
25.1
Celje
25.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
24.9
Lens
24.8
Villarreal
24.8
Sparta Praha
24.7
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Viking
24.5
Levski Sofia
24.5
Aarhus
24.3
Lech Poznan
24.1
Lille
24.0
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Inter
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.8
Universitatea Craiova
23.8
Real Madrid
23.6
Aston Villa
23.6
Galatasaray
23.5
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Napoli
23.3
Shamrock Rovers
22.9
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Feyenoord
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Ararat-Armenia
22.3
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
Arsenal
22.1
KuPS
22.0
Kauno Žalgiris
22.0
Barcelona
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.8
Manchester United
21.5
Celtic
21.4
Liverpool
21.4
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Lask Linz
21.0
Club Brugge KV
20.3
RB Leipzig
19.9
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
19.7
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Bayern München
18.6
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
KI Klaksvik
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.2%
Under 3.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
48.2%
Under 21.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atletico Madrid or Draw
60.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers Atletico Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid or Manchester United
72.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers Atletico Madrid + Manchester United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Manchester United
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers Draw + Manchester United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atletico Madrid, so a minus line means Atletico Madrid give that many goals of a start and Manchester United receive them. At -1, Atletico Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atletico Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atletico Madrid)
Atletico Madrid -2
5.4%
Draw -2
9.9%
Manchester United +2
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Atletico Madrid)
Atletico Madrid -1
15.2%
Draw -1
17.8%
Manchester United +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Atletico Madrid)
Atletico Madrid +1
60.5%
Draw +1
19.8%
Manchester United -1
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Atletico Madrid)
Atletico Madrid +2
80.3%
Draw +2
12.1%
Manchester United -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.88
2.50
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.85
0.55
0.64
1.11
1.11
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.50
0.91
0.55
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.12
0.50
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.00
0.25
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.70
1.45
0.55
0.56
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.73
1.38
0.88
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.85
1.55
1.00
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.56
0.75
0.75
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Manchester United · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Šeško34%
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha29%
Casemiro26%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Mason Mount12%
Harry Maguire8%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Matthijs de Ligt7%
Amad Diallo6%
Kobbie Mainoo3%
Diogo Dalot3%
Luke Shaw3%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casemiro29%
Shea Lacey25%
Luke Shaw24%
Patrick Dorgu18%
Harry Maguire16%
Joshua Zirkzee15%
Noussair Mazraoui15%
Diogo Dalot14%
Bruno Fernandes14%
Bryan Mbeumo12%
Matheus Cunha11%
Ayden Heaven11%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Mason Mount8%
Benjamin Šeško6%
Amad Diallo6%
Manuel Ugarte4%
Leny Yoro3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Senne Lammens0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Fernandes51%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Amad Diallo9%
Bryan Mbeumo9%
Diogo Dalot8%
Harry Maguire8%
Casemiro6%
Matheus Cunha6%
Ayden Heaven6%
Mason Mount4%
Joshua Zirkzee4%
Benjamin Šeško3%
Luke Shaw3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Shea Lacey0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha31%
Benjamin Šeško25%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Amad Diallo15%
Casemiro14%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Patrick Dorgu7%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Diogo Dalot0%
Luke Shaw0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Harry Maguire0%
Mason Mount0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
RM (27)
€1456m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
BAR (30)
€1282m
BM (29)
€1076m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
INT (25)
€694m
AM (25)
€653m
AVL (27)
€536m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
FP (30)
€467m
NAP (33)
€459m
VS (54)
€430m
SC (31)
€414m
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
VIL (24)
€325m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
PE (29)
€280m
RB (25)
€235m
FEY (30)
€229m
CBK (27)
€196m
LEN (27)
€187m
SD (33)
€186m
OP (29)
€175m
SP (38)
€123m
CEL (27)
€116m
FCZ (32)
€115m
USG (26)
€98m
SP (35)
€92m
AAF (26)
€85m
BOD (24)
€75m
DZ (34)
€66m
LP (25)
€58m
NN (29)
€54m
SG (26)
€52m
VIK (27)
€47m
LL (22)
€44m
LS (27)
€38m
UC (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SB (28)
€35m
GZ (27)
€29m
MA (24)
€26m
HOM (30)
€22m
HBS (26)
€20m
SF (24)
€17m
FT (25)
€17m
ON (23)
€15m
CEL (31)
€14m
KŽ (27)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
ARA (26)
€8m
KUP (30)
€7m
SR (31)
€7m
ER (24)
€7m
SAB (22)
€6m
VR (26)
€5m
LAR (23)
€4m
KK (28)
€3m
LRI (25)
€2m
Atletico Madrid's squad is €276m less valuable than Manchester United's (€653m vs €929m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
PSG (10)
€638m
MC (9)
€635m
ARS (13)
€608m
BAR (10)
€590m
BM (10)
€554m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
AM (9)
€290m
COM (13)
€261m
AVL (10)
€220m
INT (5)
€220m
FP (11)
€214m
RL (12)
€212m
NAP (12)
€206m
VS (19)
€193m
GAL (9)
€173m
BD (8)
€170m
FEN (14)
€162m
SC (9)
€146m
AR (6)
€138m
LIL (13)
€133m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
LYO (9)
€122m
SD (16)
€115m
PE (11)
€106m
FEY (11)
€93m
CBK (10)
€92m
OP (12)
€84m
FCZ (13)
€62m
CEL (11)
€56m
LEN (8)
€52m
AAF (11)
€44m
SP (14)
€43m
DZ (15)
€33m
USG (10)
€32m
SP (10)
€27m
SG (11)
€26m
NN (11)
€22m
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
SB (12)
€15m
UC (10)
€14m
AAR (10)
€14m
LL (5)
€13m
HOM (12)
€12m
LS (10)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
ON (9)
€7m
CEL (12)
€7m
MA (9)
€7m
SF (7)
€5m
FT (7)
€4m
KŽ (11)
€4m
KA (9)
€4m
SR (14)
€3m
ARA (9)
€3m
VR (12)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
KUP (9)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAR (6)
€1m
KK (9)
€1m
LRI (11)
€1m
Atletico Madrid's attack is €141m less valuable than Manchester United's (€290m vs €432m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
BAR (8)
€324m
ARS (4)
€290m
RM (5)
€238m
MU (7)
€236m
INT (10)
€232m
LIV (6)
€201m
BM (6)
€187m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
AM (6)
€155m
BD (7)
€146m
AR (5)
€118m
RL (6)
€109m
FP (6)
€105m
LIL (4)
€102m
NAP (7)
€101m
VS (10)
€92m
SC (9)
€91m
COM (7)
€83m
LYO (8)
€82m
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
PE (5)
€60m
VIL (4)
€52m
OP (6)
€47m
FEY (4)
€43m
USG (7)
€38m
SP (8)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
SP (10)
€27m
BOD (7)
€27m
LEN (5)
€24m
CBK (5)
€23m
FCZ (6)
€21m
CEL (5)
€20m
SD (4)
€19m
AAF (5)
€16m
AAR (10)
€14m
SG (4)
€14m
VIK (5)
€12m
LL (6)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
UC (6)
€10m
LP (3)
€9m
LS (5)
€8m
SB (6)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NN (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
HBS (3)
€5m
HOM (6)
€4m
ON (4)
€3m
KUP (9)
€3m
KA (5)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
SR (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
CEL (4)
€1m
KK (8)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LAR (7)
€1m
LRI (4)
€0m
Atletico Madrid's midfield is €82m less valuable than Manchester United's (€155m vs €236m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
ARS (12)
€508m
PSG (11)
€409m
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
BM (13)
€336m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
BD (14)
€214m
AM (10)
€208m
RL (13)
€185m
SC (13)
€176m
AVL (11)
€156m
NAP (14)
€152m
VIL (12)
€148m
FP (13)
€148m
VS (25)
€145m
COM (14)
€144m
PE (13)
€115m
LEN (14)
€112m
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
FEY (15)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
CBK (12)
€81m
LIL (10)
€76m
RB (10)
€70m
SP (20)
€61m
SD (13)
€52m
OP (11)
€44m
CEL (11)
€41m
FCZ (13)
€33m
DZ (17)
€30m
LP (12)
€28m
USG (9)
€28m
BOD (10)
€26m
NN (13)
€26m
AAF (10)
€26m
SP (11)
€22m
LL (11)
€20m
LS (12)
€19m
VIK (12)
€15m
UC (9)
€13m
SB (10)
€13m
SG (11)
€13m
MA (9)
€8m
AAR (8)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
SF (10)
€7m
GZ (10)
€6m
CEL (15)
€6m
HOM (12)
€6m
HBS (10)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
KŽ (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
ER (13)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
SR (10)
€2m
VR (10)
€2m
LAR (10)
€2m
KK (11)
€1m
LRI (10)
€1m
Atletico Madrid's defence is €54m less valuable than Manchester United's (€208m vs €261m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
AM wins
0
Draws
0
MU wins
Head-to-head
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United · H/A from AM
World: UEFA Champions League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full World: UEFA Champions League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Fenerbahçe
Levski Sofia
Sabah FA
Slovan Bratislava
Bodo/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb
Celje
FK Crvena Zvezda
Aarhus
AEK Athens FC
Viking
Lyon
Kauno Žalgiris
Shamrock Rovers
Lask Linz
Celtic
Omonia Nicosia
Sturm Graz
Vikingur Reykjavik
Ararat-Armenia
Sparta Praha
Kairat Almaty
Union St. Gilloise
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
FC Thun
Gornik Zabrze
Saburtalo
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Universitatea Craiova
KI Klaksvik
Mjallby AIF
Inter
Club Brugge KV
Napoli
RB Leipzig
FC Porto
Lille
Shakhtar Donetsk
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Slavia Praha
Como
Real Betis
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern München
Liverpool
Galatasaray
Manchester City
Barcelona
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
Sporting CP
Feyenoord
Borussia Dortmund
AS Roma
Lens
Aston Villa
PSV Eindhoven
KuPS
Heart Of Midlothian
Lech Poznan
Larne