This highly anticipated match between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC is finely balanced, with both teams having a realistic chance of winning. Austria Lustenau is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Grazer AK, while Wolfsberger AC is riding a four-game winning streak, with their last match ending in a 3-0 thrashing of Austria Vienna.
The probability of a home win for Austria Lustenau stands at 30%, while the away win for Wolfsberger AC is slightly higher at 40%, with a 31% chance of a draw. The model's selection is an away win. The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%. Austria Lustenau's home form is mediocre, scoring an average of 1 goal at home and conceding 0.75 goals, while Wolfsberger AC's away form is impressive, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 2 goals on average.
The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 79.3%. This selection suggests a relatively low-scoring match.
Results analysis
Austria Lustenau's home win extends their run of inconsistent form, with the win coming off a draw and a defeat in their last two matches. The actual result was a surprise, as Wolfsberger AC's 2-1 victory over Austria Lustenau went against the expectations of a low-scoring match. The pre-match favourite was actually Austria Lustenau, but the model's selection, an away win, was wrong. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was a home win. The model's selection of an away win was the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection of an away win was wrong. The model's suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Austria Lustenau winâś“ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.43
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
Drawâś— Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.35
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.44
Wolfsberger AC winâś— Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.07
Edge
-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.19
Dafabet
2.11
888Sport
2.10
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Austria Lustenau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.03
1.56
0.94
1.07
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.36
1.07
1.64
1.00
1.07
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.14
0.86
1.50
1.81
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.40
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.35
1.25
0.88
0.78
1.78
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.38
1.00
0.33
2.60
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.29-3.4%
Under 1.5
31.0%
@ 3.37+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.57
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.3%
@ 1.93-7.5%
Under 2.5
58.7%
@ 1.84+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
SBO
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
@ 3.30-7.5%
Under 3.5
79.2%
@ 1.30+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
888Sport
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.3%
@ 1.74-4.9%
No
51.7%
@ 1.98+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.75
No
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 6.15+7.1%
0-1
11.2%@ 6.84+4.7%
0-0
11.0%@ 9.52+6.3%
1-0
8.8%@ 9.66+4.2%
1-2
8.4%@ 8.01+2.9%
0-2
8.1%@ 9.16+3.2%
2-1 âś“
6.8%@ 11.16+2.8%
2-0
5.3%@ 17.16+2.7%
Austria Lustenau goals ↓
Wolfsberger AC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.1%
3.5%
1.1%
1
8.8%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.3%
6.8%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.8%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Austria Lustenau goals (down), columns = Wolfsberger AC goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Austria Lustenau is 0.20 goals worse than Wolfsberger AC in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Austria Lustenau is 0.60 goals worse than Wolfsberger AC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Austria Lustenau is 0.2 percentage points worse than Wolfsberger AC in terms of average possession (41% vs 42%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Austria Lustenau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.81
0.50
0.14
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.64
0.86
0.50
0.14
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
0.33
0.33
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Austria Lustenau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Austria Lustenau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
0.75
0.44
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.93
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolfsberger AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.57
0.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.94
0.62
0.62
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.75
0.33
0.00
1.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Lustenau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Austria Lustenau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Lustenau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
79.2%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+7.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
1.30
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+2.8%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Austria Lustenau
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominik Weixelbraun40%
Dion Kacuri20%
Antonio Verinac20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Danilo Soares0%
Fabian Gmeiner0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Lenn Jastremski0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Seydou Diarra0%
Lord Afrifa0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Chukwu Emmanuel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabian Gmeiner40%
Antonio Verinac40%
Danilo Soares20%
Lenn Jastremski20%
Seydou Diarra20%
Lord Afrifa20%
Chukwu Emmanuel20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Dominik Weixelbraun0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Danilo Soares40%
Dominik Weixelbraun20%
Antonio Verinac20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Fabian Gmeiner0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Lenn Jastremski0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Seydou Diarra0%
Lord Afrifa0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Chukwu Emmanuel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dominik Weixelbraun20%
Antonio Verinac20%
Pius Grabher0%
Domenik Schierl0%
Albin Gashi0%
Danilo Soares0%
Fabian Gmeiner0%
Sacha Delaye0%
Lenn Jastremski0%
Niklas Pertlwieser0%
Dion Kacuri0%
Seydou Diarra0%
Lord Afrifa0%
Precious Benjamin0%
Chukwu Emmanuel0%
Wolfsberger AC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
G. Vrioni60%
F. Wohlmuth20%
A. Schwarz20%
Lukas GĂĽtlbauer0%
T. Schriebl0%
R. Behounek0%
Nicolas Wimmer0%
M. Pink0%
R. Renner0%
Donis Avdijaj0%
Marco Sulzner0%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Sankara Karamoko0%
P. Verhounig0%
Marco Schabauer0%
Cheick Mamadou Diabate0%
Emmanuel Agyemang0%
Matteo Kitz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marco Sulzner40%
Otar Mamageishvili40%
T. Schriebl33%
Cheick Mamadou Diabate33%
Nicolas Wimmer25%
Marco Schabauer25%
R. Behounek20%
R. Renner20%
F. Wohlmuth20%
Lukas GĂĽtlbauer0%
M. Pink0%
G. Vrioni0%
Donis Avdijaj0%
Sankara Karamoko0%
A. Schwarz0%
P. Verhounig0%
Emmanuel Agyemang0%
Matteo Kitz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Donis Avdijaj60%
F. Wohlmuth20%
Lukas GĂĽtlbauer0%
T. Schriebl0%
R. Behounek0%
Nicolas Wimmer0%
M. Pink0%
R. Renner0%
G. Vrioni0%
Marco Sulzner0%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Sankara Karamoko0%
A. Schwarz0%
P. Verhounig0%
Marco Schabauer0%
Cheick Mamadou Diabate0%
Emmanuel Agyemang0%
Matteo Kitz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
G. Vrioni20%
Lukas GĂĽtlbauer0%
T. Schriebl0%
R. Behounek0%
Nicolas Wimmer0%
M. Pink0%
R. Renner0%
Donis Avdijaj0%
F. Wohlmuth0%
Marco Sulzner0%
Otar Mamageishvili0%
Sankara Karamoko0%
A. Schwarz0%
P. Verhounig0%
Marco Schabauer0%
Cheick Mamadou Diabate0%
Emmanuel Agyemang0%
Matteo Kitz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Austria Lustenau's squad is €7m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€5m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Austria Lustenau's attack is €1m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Austria Lustenau's midfield is €2m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Austria Lustenau's defence is €4m less valuable than Wolfsberger AC's (€2m vs €6m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna