Barcelona’s recent 5-0 triumph over Elche and a winning streak in the last five matches set a clear tone for the model’s favourite - a home win. The model rates Barcelona at 77 % to lift the trophy, 16 % for a draw and 7 % for an Athletic Club victory, making a Barcelona win the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline 2-0, carrying a 12.2 % chance. Barcelona’s home form is dominant, averaging 3.45 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded against weaker opponents, while Athletic Club, playing away against stronger opposition, averages 2.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 99.2 %, Home +2 handicap at 98.2 %, Under 7.5 at 96.8 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.1 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.4 % and Home over 0.5 goals at 94.4 %. Each selection carries its own probability and edge where noted.
Results analysis
Barcelona’s 2-0 victory over Athletic Club confirmed the model’s prediction of a home win, a call that was correct. The win extends Barcelona’s two-game winning run, while Athletic Club’s form has slipped after three straight defeats. The model had given Barcelona a 78% probability of triumph, and the final score matched the most likely 2-0 outcome, which had a 11.9% chance. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 99.2%, Home +2 handicap at 97.9%, Under 7.5 at 97.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.7%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.4%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 94.1%. All were settled as hits.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barcelona win✓ Hit
77.9%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Dafabet
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied 14.5% · @ 6.57
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Dafabet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Athletic Club win✗ Miss
7.1%
Avg Implied 8.8% · @ 10.82
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
12.00
1xBet
11.60
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
BetVictor
11.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.00
3.07
0.71
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.33
1.67
0.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.62
0.92
3.45
0.73
1.92
1.08
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.73
1.23
1.46
1.35
1.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.75
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.50
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.56
1.20
1.40
0.88
1.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
1.62
2.00
1.00
1.71
1.71
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
@ 1.09+0.1%
Under 1.5
14.0%
@ 6.64-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.1%
@ 1.36-3.0%
Under 2.5
33.9%
@ 3.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.12
Superbet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.3%
@ 1.95-4.7%
Under 3.5
55.7%
@ 1.87+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.01
SBO
2.01
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.8%
@ 1.75-4.5%
No
51.2%
@ 2.00+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Bet365
1.75
888Sport
1.75
No
William Hil
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Superbet
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.9%@ 7.49+5.8%
3-0
10.6%@ 8.01+4.9%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.66+3.4%
1-0
8.2%@ 9.86+3.6%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.52+2.9%
1-1
7.1%@ 11.83+3.3%
4-0
7.1%@ 11.17+3.0%
4-1
5.2%@ 13.09+1.7%
Barcelona goals ↓
Athletic Club goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.2%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
2
12%
8.7%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
11%
7.7%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
7.1%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barcelona goals (down), columns = Athletic Club goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Barcelona is 1.29 points better than Athletic Club in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Barcelona is 1.37 goals better than Athletic Club in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Barcelona is 0.58 goals better than Athletic Club in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Barcelona is 20.2 percentage points better than Athletic Club in terms of average possession (69% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barcelona
For 4.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
For 7.2 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 9.5 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.1
10.4
4.2
3.8
4.7
21.8
21.3
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
10.6
11.4
9.8
6.1
4.8
7.4
23.8
22.6
25.0
vs Weaker (40)
10.8
11.0
10.6
3.8
3.5
4.0
21.2
21.0
21.5
% over line
62%
58%
65%
52%
46%
58%
54%
50%
58%
% under line
38%
42%
35%
48%
54%
42%
46%
50%
42%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.4
4.8
4.1
25.5
24.9
26.0
vs Stronger (10)
8.2
9.3
6.5
3.5
4.5
2.0
24.1
24.7
23.2
vs Similar (27)
10.4
10.8
10.0
4.1
4.5
3.8
25.1
23.4
26.5
vs Weaker (13)
9.4
8.6
9.9
5.8
6.0
5.8
27.2
28.6
26.2
% over line
50%
52%
48%
64%
74%
56%
72%
65%
78%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
36%
26%
44%
28%
35%
22%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.7
Racing Santander
10.6
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Valencia
9.8
Espanyol
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
8.9
Getafe
8.9
Elche
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.4
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.4
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.3
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Alaves
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Athletic Club
4.7
Elche
4.7
Real Betis
4.7
Levante
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.2
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.3
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.5
Osasuna
25.1
Celta Vigo
24.9
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.6
Villarreal
24.6
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.5
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.9%
@ 1.60-4.0%
Under 9.5
46.1%
@ 2.21+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Under
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.30
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.7%
@ 1.92+15.0%
Under 3.5
36.3%
@ 1.82-15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.93
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.9%
@ 1.76+17.5%
Under 21.5
29.1%
@ 2.02-17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.43
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barcelona or Draw✓ Hit
93.0%
Avg Implied 90.7% · @ 1.05
Edge
+2.3%
78%
15%
7%
covers Barcelona + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Barcelona or Athletic Club✓ Hit
85.6%
Avg Implied 85.7% · @ 1.11
Edge
-0.0%
78%
15%
7%
covers Barcelona + Athletic Club
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Draw or Athletic Club✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 4.04
Edge
-2.2%
78%
15%
7%
covers Draw + Athletic Club
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Unibet
4.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barcelona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Under
6.1%
@ 11.29-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Under
888Sport
13.00
1xBet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Barcelona over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.7%
@ 1.23+1.2%
Under
23.3%
@ 3.81-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
888Sport
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Barcelona over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
52.8%
@ 1.78+0.2%
Under
47.2%
@ 1.97-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
1xBet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Superbet
1.97
Barcelona over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
30.6%
@ 2.97-0.9%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.36+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.20
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Athletic Club over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
53.7%
@ 1.66-2.5%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Under
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
BetVictor
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Athletic Club over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 4.31-3.6%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.19+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Athletic Club over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 12.89-3.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
14.75
1xBet
14.70
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Athletic Club over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 31.67-2.3%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
40.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barcelona, so a minus line means Barcelona give that many goals of a start and Athletic Club receive them. At -1, Barcelona must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barcelona win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barcelona)Actual: Draw
Barcelona -2
37.6%
@ 2.46+0.9%
Draw -2
21.5%
@ 4.08-0.7%
Athletic Club +2
40.9%
@ 2.20-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
Unibet
2.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Superbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Handicap -1 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona -1
59.1%
@ 1.63+3.1%
Draw -1
19.5%
@ 4.24-2.0%
Athletic Club +1
21.4%
@ 4.05-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
Away
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Handicap +1 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +1
93.0%
@ 1.06+7.1%
Draw +1
4.9%
@ 10.03-4.1%
Athletic Club -1
2.1%
@ 18.22-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +2
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Draw +2
1.6%
@ 23.00-2.5%
Athletic Club -2
0.4%
@ 56.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
Away
Betfair
71.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.43
0.36
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.00
0.38
1.45
0.36
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.62
0.54
0.53
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.61
0.60
0.60
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
1.12
0.00
0.00
0.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.8%
@ 1.19+2.1%
Under 0.5
19.2%
@ 4.38-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Superbet
4.65
BetVictor
4.60
1xBet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.2%
@ 1.97+0.5%
Under 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.80-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.01
Under
Superbet
1.87
SBO
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 4.06-0.7%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.21+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
75.2%
@ 1.34+5.6%
Under
24.8%
@ 3.06-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 2.58+4.9%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.46-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.66
Marathonbet
2.65
Unibet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.87-4.2%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.20
Betano
6.00
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.6%
@ 2.97-1.7%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.35+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.18
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Under
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 10.62-4.3%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 32.50-2.5%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.47
1.64
0.36
1.12
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.62
0.54
2.00
0.36
1.31
0.69
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.62
0.92
0.82
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.94
0.60
0.80
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
87.0%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Under 0.5
13.0%
@ 5.94-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.6%
@ 1.59+3.6%
Under 1.5
37.4%
@ 2.29-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.2%
@ 2.82-0.1%
Under 2.5
66.8%
@ 1.41+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
78.7%
@ 1.20+1.6%
Under
21.3%
@ 4.05-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Under
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Superbet
3.90
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.8%
@ 1.98+1.9%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.75-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.9%
@ 4.01-3.2%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.20+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
32.9%
@ 2.40-5.8%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.51+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.44
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.37
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 8.47-5.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 22.50-3.5%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
93.0%
1.05
BetVictor
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
93.0%
1.06
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.6%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
81.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.35
-
+15.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.8%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.20
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home win
77.9%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Dafabet
1.25
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.7%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
76.7%
1.23
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
1.22
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
71.4%
1.36
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.9%
1.76
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.46
-
-
+17.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.35
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Raphinha100%
Fermín López67%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Lamine Yamal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavi Espart33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Raphinha0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Marc Bernal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Gordon67%
Xavi Espart67%
Raphinha33%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Pedri33%
Marc Bernal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Raphinha67%
Lamine Yamal67%
Anthony Gordon33%
Fermín López33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
Athletic Club
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Barcelona's squad is €1041m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€1282m vs €241m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Barcelona's attack is €484m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€590m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Barcelona's midfield is €266m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€324m vs €57m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Barcelona's defence is €291m more valuable than Athletic Club's (€368m vs €77m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga