This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.83
2.07
0.93
2.19
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (24)
2.33
0.67
2.17
0.92
2.50
0.42
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.3%
Barcelona goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.2%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.4%
11%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.8%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.3%
3.8%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.6%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barcelona goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Sociedad
2.57
Celta Vigo
2.50
Valencia
2.40
Osasuna
2.40
Barcelona
2.33
Atletico Madrid
2.29
Pontevedra
2.25
Elche
2.25
Rayo Vallecano
2.25
Ourense CF
2.25
Almeria
2.25
Real Betis
2.25
Zamora
2.00
Barbastro
2.00
Huesca
2.00
Eldense
2.00
Castellón
2.00
Las Palmas
2.00
FC Cartagena
2.00
Alaves
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Getafe
2.00
Sevilla
2.00
Zaragoza
2.00
Marbella
2.00
Girona
2.00
Leganes
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Real Madrid
1.83
Sant Andreu
1.50
Manises
1.50
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.50
Barakaldo
1.50
Villamuriel
1.50
Conquense
1.50
Espanyol
1.50
Gimnastic
1.50
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Yeclano
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Astur
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
FC Andorra
1.50
Vic
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Ejea
1.50
Salamanca UDS
1.50
Parla Escuela
1.50
Villarreal
1.50
Burgos
1.50
UD San Pedro
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
Chiclana
1.50
Granada CF
1.33
Deportiva Minera
1.33
Valladolid
1.33
Tenerife
1.33
Malaga
1.00
Escobedo
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Oviedo
1.00
Orihuela
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Estepona
1.00
Eibar
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
UD Logroñés
1.00
Ponferradina
0.67
San Tirso
0.50
Olot
0.50
Cacereño
0.50
Ontiñena
0.50
Gévora
0.50
Athletic Club
0.50
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.00
Bergantiños
0.00
Tudelano
0.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
0.00
Promesas EDF
0.00
Lanzarote
0.00
Sonseca
0.00
Alcorcon
0.00
Sporting Mahón
0.00
Ibiza
0.00
Atlético Paso
0.00
Jove Español
0.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.00
Llanera
0.00
Melilla CD
0.00
Amorebieta
0.00
Albacete
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Móstoles
0.00
Don Benito
0.00
Cuarte
0.00
Mirandes
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Alfaro
0.00
Compostela
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Laredo
0.00
Xerez
0.00
Badalona
0.00
Beasain
0.00
Cortes
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Dolorense
0.00
Las Rozas
0.00
Poblense
0.00
SS Reyes
0.00
Guijuelo
0.00
Juventud Torremolinos
0.00
L'Hospitalet
0.00
Ciudad de Lucena
0.00
Águilas
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Lleida Esportiu
0.00
Hércules
0.00
Numancia
0.00
Levante
0.00
CD Coria
0.00
Barcelona is 0.05 points better than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celta Vigo
4.25
Zaragoza
3.50
Barcelona
3.50
Lanzarote
3.00
Unionistas de Salamanca
3.00
Las Palmas
3.00
Yeclano
3.00
Rayo Vallecano
3.00
Villarreal
3.00
Real Betis
2.75
Atletico Madrid
2.71
Valladolid
2.67
Real Madrid
2.67
Osasuna
2.60
Almeria
2.50
Burgos
2.50
UD San Pedro
2.50
Real Sociedad
2.43
Racing Santander
2.33
Sevilla
2.33
Leganes
2.20
Barbastro
2.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
2.00
Deportiva Minera
2.00
Barakaldo
2.00
Espanyol
2.00
Pontevedra
2.00
Elche
2.00
Móstoles
2.00
Vic
2.00
Girona
2.00
Chiclana
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Valencia
1.60
Sant Andreu
1.50
Manises
1.50
Estepona
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Astur
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Ourense CF
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
Granada CF
1.33
Zamora
1.00
Malaga
1.00
Bergantiños
1.00
Huesca
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Castellón
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.00
Albacete
1.00
FC Cartagena
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Don Benito
1.00
Cuarte
1.00
Mirandes
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Olot
1.00
Dolorense
1.00
Cacereño
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Poblense
1.00
SS Reyes
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Guijuelo
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
1.00
Ejea
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
L'Hospitalet
1.00
Marbella
1.00
Tenerife
1.00
Ciudad de Lucena
1.00
Lleida Esportiu
1.00
Gévora
1.00
Levante
1.00
Athletic Club
1.00
Eldense
0.67
Villamuriel
0.50
Conquense
0.50
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
San Tirso
0.50
Ontiñena
0.50
Salamanca UDS
0.50
Parla Escuela
0.50
Ponferradina
0.33
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.00
Escobedo
0.00
Tudelano
0.00
Promesas EDF
0.00
Sonseca
0.00
Alcorcon
0.00
Sporting Mahón
0.00
Ibiza
0.00
Atlético Paso
0.00
Jove Español
0.00
Llanera
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Melilla CD
0.00
Amorebieta
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Alfaro
0.00
Compostela
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Laredo
0.00
Eibar
0.00
Xerez
0.00
Badalona
0.00
Beasain
0.00
Cortes
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Las Rozas
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Águilas
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Hércules
0.00
Numancia
0.00
CD Coria
0.00
Barcelona is 0.79 goals better than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 2.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Escobedo
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Eibar
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Girona
0.00
Huesca
0.33
Zamora
0.50
Castellón
0.50
Conquense
0.50
Pontevedra
0.50
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
Yeclano
0.50
Cadiz
0.50
Alaves
0.50
Parla Escuela
0.50
Eldense
0.67
FC Cartagena
0.67
Marbella
0.67
Tenerife
0.67
Real Sociedad
0.71
Atletico Madrid
0.86
Malaga
1.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Sonseca
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Ponferradina
1.00
Alcorcon
1.00
Granada CF
1.00
Ibiza
1.00
Atlético Paso
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Espanyol
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna
1.00
Elche
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Compostela
1.00
Xerez
1.00
Beasain
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Vic
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Villarreal
1.00
Águilas
1.00
Hércules
1.00
Numancia
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.00
Barcelona
1.17
Valencia
1.20
Celta Vigo
1.25
Ourense CF
1.25
Barbastro
1.33
Osasuna
1.40
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.50
Barakaldo
1.50
Estepona
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Rayo Vallecano
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Ejea
1.50
Almeria
1.50
Zaragoza
1.50
Burgos
1.50
Athletic Club
1.50
Las Palmas
1.67
Sevilla
1.67
Real Madrid
1.67
Racing Ferrol
1.67
Real Betis
1.75
Leganes
1.80
Bergantiños
2.00
Promesas EDF
2.00
Sant Andreu
2.00
Manises
2.00
Deportiva Minera
2.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00
Valladolid
2.00
Llanera
2.00
Albacete
2.00
Don Benito
2.00
Mirandes
2.00
Alfaro
2.00
Badalona
2.00
Astur
2.00
Olot
2.00
Cortes
2.00
Cacereño
2.00
SS Reyes
2.00
Guijuelo
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Juventud Torremolinos
2.00
Ciudad de Lucena
2.00
Villamuriel
2.50
San Tirso
2.50
Chiclana
2.50
Cuarte
3.00
Mallorca
3.00
Dolorense
3.00
Las Rozas
3.00
Real Jaén
3.00
Lleida Esportiu
3.00
CD Coria
3.00
Salamanca UDS
3.50
UD San Pedro
3.50
Gévora
3.50
Ceuta 6 de Junio
4.00
Lanzarote
4.00
Sporting Mahón
4.00
Melilla CD
4.00
Amorebieta
4.00
Utebo
4.00
Extremadura 1924
4.00
Ontiñena
4.00
Levante
4.00
Tudelano
5.00
Jove Español
5.00
Móstoles
5.00
L'Hospitalet
5.00
Laredo
6.00
Poblense
6.00
Barcelona is 0.31 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
58%
Real Madrid
50%
Atletico Madrid
43%
Real Sociedad
42%
Barcelona is 15.0 percentage points better than Atletico Madrid in terms of average possession (58% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barcelona
For 7.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
For 4.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 14.3 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.4
10.1
4.3
3.8
4.7
22.0
21.5
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
11.1
12.0
10.6
5.5
5.0
5.8
22.6
20.7
23.8
vs Weaker (42)
10.1
10.2
10.0
4.1
3.6
4.5
21.8
21.6
22.1
% over line
66%
64%
68%
58%
43%
70%
47%
41%
52%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
42%
57%
30%
53%
59%
48%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.6
8.1
3.9
4.5
3.3
22.8
22.8
22.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
9.4
10.6
8.2
4.6
6.0
3.2
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Weaker (40)
8.7
9.3
8.1
3.7
4.1
3.3
23.3
23.1
23.5
% over line
47%
70%
23%
60%
71%
50%
53%
61%
45%
% under line
53%
30%
77%
40%
29%
50%
47%
39%
55%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Deportivo La Coruna
10.6
Real Madrid
10.3
Barcelona
10.3
Real Sociedad
9.8
Oviedo
9.8
Numancia
9.7
Ibiza
9.7
Huesca
9.7
Granada CF
9.7
Racing Santander
9.6
Levante
9.5
Eldense
9.5
Cordoba
9.5
Athletic Club
9.5
Las Palmas
9.5
Cultural Leonesa
9.5
Burgos
9.4
Villarreal
9.4
Alaves
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Real Betis
9.4
Almeria
9.3
Sevilla
9.3
Albacete
9.3
Osasuna
9.3
Ponferradina
9.3
Rayo Vallecano
9.3
Valladolid
9.2
Castellón
9.2
Espanyol
9.2
Zaragoza
9.2
Malaga
9.1
Tenerife
9.1
Sporting Gijon
9.1
Mirandes
9.1
Mallorca
9.1
Valencia
9.1
Gimnastic
9.0
Racing Ferrol
9.0
Alcorcon
9.0
Leganes
8.9
FC Cartagena
8.9
FC Andorra
8.8
Amorebieta
8.8
Cadiz
8.8
Girona
8.7
Atletico Madrid
8.7
Celta Vigo
8.5
Elche
8.5
Getafe
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.4
Racing Santander
6.2
Villarreal
6.1
Gimnastic
5.9
Zaragoza
5.9
Malaga
5.8
Cultural Leonesa
5.6
Cadiz
5.6
Numancia
5.6
Valladolid
5.5
Alaves
5.5
Elche
5.5
Las Palmas
5.4
Granada CF
5.4
Rayo Vallecano
5.3
Real Sociedad
5.3
Almeria
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Sevilla
5.2
Cordoba
5.2
Mirandes
5.2
Real Betis
5.1
Girona
5.1
Tenerife
5.0
Oviedo
5.0
Espanyol
4.9
Burgos
4.9
Alcorcon
4.9
Leganes
4.8
Eibar
4.8
Huesca
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
FC Andorra
4.8
Osasuna
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.8
Albacete
4.7
Barcelona
4.7
Athletic Club
4.6
Valencia
4.6
Eldense
4.6
Atletico Madrid
4.5
Racing Ferrol
4.5
Amorebieta
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Deportivo La Coruna
4.3
Levante
4.3
FC Cartagena
4.3
Ibiza
4.2
Castellón
4.1
Real Madrid
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Numancia
30.6
Gimnastic
30.1
Getafe
30.0
Cultural Leonesa
29.8
Cadiz
29.4
Racing Santander
29.3
Cordoba
29.3
Malaga
28.9
Ibiza
28.1
Elche
28.0
Tenerife
27.6
Alaves
27.5
Espanyol
27.4
Granada CF
27.2
Zaragoza
27.1
Oviedo
27.0
Rayo Vallecano
26.7
Real Betis
26.5
Almeria
26.5
Leganes
26.3
Racing Ferrol
26.0
Castellón
25.8
Real Sociedad
25.7
Mirandes
25.7
Eldense
25.6
Valladolid
25.5
Levante
25.4
Villarreal
25.1
FC Andorra
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Alcorcon
24.6
Valencia
24.6
Mallorca
24.5
Athletic Club
24.5
Ponferradina
24.4
Deportivo La Coruna
24.4
Sporting Gijon
24.3
Amorebieta
24.3
Las Palmas
24.2
Osasuna
24.0
Girona
23.9
FC Cartagena
23.9
Albacete
23.7
Sevilla
23.4
Burgos
23.4
Huesca
23.4
Atletico Madrid
23.3
Eibar
23.1
Real Madrid
22.3
Barcelona
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.5%
Under 9.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.1%
Under 21.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barcelona or Draw✓ Hit
77.7%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Barcelona + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barcelona or Atletico Madrid✗ Miss
76.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Barcelona + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Atletico Madrid✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barcelona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.6%
Under
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barcelona, so a minus line means Barcelona give that many goals of a start and Atletico Madrid receive them. At -1, Barcelona must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barcelona win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barcelona)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Barcelona -2
15.2%
Draw -2
16.6%
Atletico Madrid +2
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Barcelona)Actual: Atletico Madrid
Barcelona -1
31.8%
Draw -1
21.8%
Atletico Madrid +1
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +1
77.7%
Draw +1
13.1%
Atletico Madrid -1
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +2
90.7%
Draw +2
6.4%
Atletico Madrid -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.43
1.64
0.14
1.19
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.42
0.35
1.58
0.08
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
0.64
0.43
1.00
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.29
0.75
0.42
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.67
1.14
0.71
2.06
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
4.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.54
0.65
1.25
0.67
1.79
0.64
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.47
1.43
0.50
1.19
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.50
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.38
0.38
1.42
0.50
1.33
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Lewandowski54%
Raphinha40%
Ferran Torres35%
Dani Olmo29%
Lamine Yamal28%
Pablo Torre21%
Fermín López16%
Eric García11%
Pedri11%
Ronald Araújo8%
Jules Koundé8%
Pau Víctor7%
Iñigo Martínez7%
Gavi5%
Frenkie de Jong4%
Marc Casadó3%
Gerard Martín2%
Pau Cubarsí2%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Ansu Fati0%
Alejandro Balde0%
Hector Fort0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Marc Bernal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marc Bernal67%
Andreas Christensen50%
Iñigo Martínez18%
Sergi Domínguez17%
Frenkie de Jong16%
Gavi15%
Fermín López13%
Ronald Araújo12%
Marc Casadó12%
Raphinha11%
Pau Víctor10%
Hector Fort10%
Jules Koundé10%
Gerard Martín10%
Pau Cubarsí9%
Eric García9%
Ansu Fati9%
Alejandro Balde9%
Lamine Yamal6%
Pedri5%
Ferran Torres5%
Iñaki Peña5%
Robert Lewandowski4%
Dani Olmo3%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Pablo Torre0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lamine Yamal36%
Raphinha29%
Alejandro Balde16%
Fermín López16%
Marc Casadó15%
Pablo Torre14%
Pedri14%
Gerard Martín12%
Ferran Torres12%
Iñigo Martínez11%
Dani Olmo11%
Jules Koundé10%
Ronald Araújo8%
Pau Cubarsí7%
Eric García7%
Frenkie de Jong4%
Robert Lewandowski4%
Pau Víctor3%
Gavi2%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Ansu Fati0%
Hector Fort0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Marc Bernal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lamine Yamal58%
Robert Lewandowski42%
Raphinha38%
Ferran Torres19%
Dani Olmo16%
Fermín López16%
Ansu Fati9%
Jules Koundé4%
Pedri2%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Frenkie de Jong0%
Eric García0%
Wojciech Szczęsny0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Iñigo Martínez0%
Ronald Araújo0%
Alejandro Balde0%
Gerard Martín0%
Pau Víctor0%
Pablo Torre0%
Gavi0%
Marc Casadó0%
Hector Fort0%
Pau Cubarsí0%
Sergi Domínguez0%
Marc Bernal0%
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julián Álvarez42%
Alexander Sørloth35%
Antoine Griezmann25%
Ángel Correa16%
Marcos Llorente11%
Samuel Lino9%
Clément Lenglet9%
Conor Gallagher9%
Giuliano Simeone9%
Rodrigo de Paul6%
César Azpilicueta5%
Rodrigo Riquelme4%
Robin Le Normand3%
José María Giménez3%
Pablo Barrios2%
Koke2%
Nahuel Molina2%
Axel Witsel0%
Jan Oblak0%
Thomas Lemar0%
Juan Musso0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Javi Galán0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Clément Lenglet32%
Javi Galán31%
Robin Le Normand30%
José María Giménez26%
Reinildo Mandava21%
César Azpilicueta20%
Rodrigo de Paul18%
Pablo Barrios15%
Giuliano Simeone13%
Koke12%
Ángel Correa11%
Julián Álvarez11%
Alexander Sørloth10%
Axel Witsel10%
Samuel Lino7%
Conor Gallagher7%
Nahuel Molina5%
Antoine Griezmann4%
Marcos Llorente2%
Jan Oblak0%
Thomas Lemar0%
Juan Musso0%
Rodrigo Riquelme0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Samuel Lino18%
Giuliano Simeone17%
Antoine Griezmann17%
Rodrigo de Paul16%
Marcos Llorente15%
Javi Galán14%
Julián Álvarez13%
Conor Gallagher13%
Pablo Barrios10%
Ángel Correa9%
Nahuel Molina7%
Clément Lenglet6%
Axel Witsel5%
Koke5%
Alexander Sørloth4%
Rodrigo Riquelme4%
José María Giménez3%
Jan Oblak0%
Thomas Lemar0%
César Azpilicueta0%
Juan Musso0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Robin Le Normand0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexander Sørloth27%
Julián Álvarez23%
Antoine Griezmann15%
Samuel Lino11%
Pablo Barrios7%
Ángel Correa7%
Conor Gallagher4%
Marcos Llorente2%
Rodrigo de Paul2%
Axel Witsel0%
Jan Oblak0%
José María Giménez0%
Thomas Lemar0%
Koke0%
Clément Lenglet0%
César Azpilicueta0%
Juan Musso0%
Nahuel Molina0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Robin Le Normand0%
Javi Galán0%
Rodrigo Riquelme0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
ZAR (20)
€9m
ELD (20)
€7m
MIR (21)
€6m
CL (20)
€6m
HUE (21)
€5m
Barcelona's squad is €629m more valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€1282m vs €653m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
ALM (11)
€38m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
COR (9)
€4m
ELD (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€3m
HUE (9)
€2m
MIR (6)
€2m
Barcelona's attack is €300m more valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€590m vs €290m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
HUE (4)
€1m
MIR (4)
€1m
CL (4)
€1m
Barcelona's midfield is €168m more valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€324m vs €155m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€2m
HUE (8)
€2m
Barcelona's defence is €160m more valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€368m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Valencia
Real Sociedad
Getafe
Alaves
Espanyol
Sevilla
Girona
Leganes
Las Palmas
Valladolid