Middlesbrough is expected to come out on top in this match, with a predicted score of 1-1 being the most likely, occurring at a 13% probability. The average number of goals expected is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. Blackburn's home form against stronger opponents has seen them score an average of 0.5 goals and concede 1.0, while Middlesbrough's away form against weaker opponents has seen them score 1.5 goals and concede 1.0.
The probabilities for the match result are: Blackburn to win 30%, draw 27%, and Middlesbrough to win 43%. The model's selection is an away win. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, occurring at 77.9% probability, and Draw or Away, occurring at 76.7% probability. Home or Away is also suggested, occurring at 71.3% probability.
Results analysis
The surprise came early as Blackburn, riding a win that extended their recent run, overturned the pre-match favourite, Middlesbrough, to claim a 2-1 victory. The model had tipped an away win with a 46 % probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result of a home win. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6 %; Under 6.5 hit at 98.7 %; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7 %; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3 %; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.5 %; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3 %; Under 5.5 hit at 96.1 %; and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.3 %. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, except for the favourite pick.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Blackburn win✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Betfair
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.40
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.56
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Middlesbrough win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied 45.6% · @ 2.06
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.12
Dafabet
2.11
888Sport
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Blackburn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.17
0.77
0.85
1.00
1.41
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.00
1.17
0.90
0.80
1.07
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.97
1.31
0.56
1.64
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.17
1.64
0.64
1.58
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.29
0.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
@ 1.29+4.7%
Under 1.5
22.8%
@ 3.40-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.62
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.93+2.7%
Under 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.86-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.6%
@ 3.28+1.2%
Under 3.5
70.4%
@ 1.31-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
888Sport
3.50
Pinnacle
3.42
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.9%
@ 1.73+2.3%
No
44.1%
@ 2.01-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.80
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.20+5.8%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.02+3.7%
0-1
8.9%@ 7.19+2.7%
0-2
8.0%@ 9.53+3.3%
0-0
7.6%@ 9.43+2.8%
2-1 ✓
6.9%@ 11.05+2.9%
1-0
6.3%@ 9.67+1.7%
2-2
5.5%@ 12.99+2.0%
Blackburn goals ↓
Middlesbrough goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
8.9%
8.0%
4.2%
1.6%
1
6.3%
13%
9.3%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.4%
6.9%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
3
1.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Blackburn goals (down), columns = Middlesbrough goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wolves
2.02
West Ham
1.99
Burnley
1.87
Millwall
1.75
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Cardiff
1.35
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.04
Lincoln
0.95
Blackburn is 0.54 points worse than Middlesbrough in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wolves
1.92
West Ham
1.89
Burnley
1.78
Southampton
1.73
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Cardiff
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Bolton
0.99
Charlton
0.96
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.90
Blackburn is 0.58 goals worse than Middlesbrough in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wolves
0.87
West Ham
0.89
Burnley
0.94
Middlesbrough
1.00
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Cardiff
1.31
Preston
1.35
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.70
Lincoln
1.87
Blackburn is 0.22 goals worse than Middlesbrough in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Blackburn is 11.5 percentage points worse than Middlesbrough in terms of average possession (48% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Blackburn
For 5.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 9.3 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Middlesbrough
For 6.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Blackburn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.3
3.9
3.8
3.9
21.2
20.2
22.1
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.9
4.2
3.5
20.1
20.2
20.0
vs Similar (41)
10.3
10.8
9.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
21.3
20.2
22.3
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
-
15.0
3.0
-
3.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
60%
67%
54%
56%
54%
58%
48%
42%
54%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
44%
46%
42%
52%
58%
46%
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
12.0
9.6
3.6
3.0
4.1
21.4
21.4
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.7
12.3
9.2
3.7
3.1
4.3
21.7
21.1
22.4
vs Weaker (11)
11.2
11.3
11.0
3.0
2.8
3.2
20.4
22.3
18.0
% over line
58%
76%
40%
52%
44%
60%
46%
40%
52%
% under line
42%
24%
60%
48%
56%
40%
54%
60%
48%
This opponent (Blackburn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
@ 1.62+1.7%
Under 9.5
41.1%
@ 2.17-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.3%
@ 1.84+4.1%
Under 3.5
45.7%
@ 1.86-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
43.9%
Under 21.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Blackburn or Draw✓ Hit
52.0%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.73
Edge
-2.0%
27%
27%
46%
covers Blackburn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Blackburn or Middlesbrough✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.8%
27%
27%
46%
covers Blackburn + Middlesbrough
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Middlesbrough✗ Miss
76.7%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
+3.8%
27%
27%
46%
covers Draw + Middlesbrough
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Blackburn over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.9%
@ 1.40-4.6%
Under
38.1%
@ 2.77+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Blackburn over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.1%
@ 2.98-6.2%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.35+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.17
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Blackburn over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 7.41-5.2%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.06+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Blackburn over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 20.94-2.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.3%
@ 1.21+0.5%
Under
22.7%
@ 4.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.38
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.6%
@ 2.05-1.8%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.71+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Pinnacle
2.11
Unibet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Betfair
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.7%
@ 4.40-2.5%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.18+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Pinnacle
4.53
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Middlesbrough over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 9.97-3.0%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Blackburn, so a minus line means Blackburn give that many goals of a start and Middlesbrough receive them. At -1, Blackburn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Blackburn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Blackburn)Actual: Middlesbrough
Blackburn -2
2.3%
@ 18.00-2.7%
Draw -2
6.3%
@ 9.56-3.2%
Middlesbrough +2
91.4%
@ 1.07+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Unibet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.80
10Bet
8.00
Away
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Blackburn)Actual: Draw
Blackburn -1
8.6%
@ 7.52-3.3%
Draw -1
14.7%
@ 5.00-3.3%
Middlesbrough +1
76.7%
@ 1.28+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Handicap +1 (Blackburn)Actual: Blackburn
Blackburn +1
52.0%
@ 1.73+0.2%
Draw +1
23.2%
@ 3.69-1.0%
Middlesbrough -1
24.7%
@ 3.75+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Unibet
1.70
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Handicap +2 (Blackburn)Actual: Blackburn
Blackburn +2
75.3%
@ 1.22+1.7%
Draw +2
14.9%
@ 5.83-0.4%
Middlesbrough -2
9.8%
@ 8.13-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Draw
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
Away
10Bet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Blackburn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.46
0.54
0.59
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.46
0.60
0.50
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.56
0.19
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.43
0.73
0.18
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.14
0.20
0.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.6%
@ 1.38+1.2%
Under 0.5
31.4%
@ 2.86-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.4%
@ 2.78-0.1%
Under 1.5
66.6%
@ 1.40+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.92
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 6.91-2.4%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.07+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Blackburn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.7%
@ 2.37+0.4%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.53-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Blackburn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 7.92-2.7%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Blackburn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 30.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.9%
@ 1.89-1.3%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.83+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 5.39-4.8%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.12+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 14.12-4.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Blackburn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.31
0.31
0.41
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.71
0.30
0.30
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Middlesbrough
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.75
0.38
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.74
0.91
0.45
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.14
0.40
0.20
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.6%
Under 0.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.9%
Under 1.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
Under 2.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Blackburn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackburn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackburn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Unibet
1.01
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.4%
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.2%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.7%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
76.7%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
74.9%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.3%
1.28
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
1.35
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.4%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-1.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Blackburn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andri Guðjohnsen75%
Oladapo Afolayan20%
Todd Cantwell20%
Sean McLoughlin20%
Ryoya Morishita20%
Jayden Fevrier20%
Harry Pickering0%
Adam Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Jake Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
Tom Atcheson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Todd Cantwell60%
Sam Morsy50%
Sean McLoughlin40%
Harry Pickering25%
Adam Forshaw25%
Andri Guðjohnsen25%
Oladapo Afolayan20%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Ryoya Morishita0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Jake Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
Jayden Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryoya Morishita40%
Harry Pickering25%
Andri Guðjohnsen25%
Ryan Alebiosu25%
Oladapo Afolayan20%
Todd Cantwell20%
Adam Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Sean McLoughlin0%
Jake Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
Jayden Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oladapo Afolayan40%
Todd Cantwell40%
Harry Pickering0%
Adam Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Sean McLoughlin0%
Ryoya Morishita0%
Andri Guðjohnsen0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Jake Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
Jayden Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Middlesbrough
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Will Lankshear80%
Jeremy Sarmiento40%
Alfie Jones33%
Kyle Joseph20%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Aidan Morris0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Lankshear40%
Myles Peart-Harris25%
Neto Borges20%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Riley McGree33%
Luke Ayling20%
Morgan Whittaker20%
Sebastian Berhalter20%
Jeremy Sarmiento20%
Neto Borges0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Will Lankshear0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Morgan Whittaker40%
Will Lankshear40%
Leo Castledine25%
Sebastian Berhalter20%
Kyle Joseph20%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Luke Ayling0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Radek Vitek0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Blackburn's squad is €106m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€36m vs €142m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Blackburn's attack is €59m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€15m vs €74m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Blackburn's midfield is €20m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€7m vs €27m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Blackburn's defence is €28m less valuable than Middlesbrough's (€14m vs €41m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Charlton
Wolves
Swansea
QPR
Southampton
Millwall
West Brom
Watford
Birmingham
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