This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.38
1.06
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.88
0.75
2.75
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.53
0.65
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.25+6.6%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.64-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.6%
0-0 ✓
8.4%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.0%
Boavista goals ↓
Arouca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.6%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10.0%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.3%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.4%
4.8%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boavista goals (down), columns = Arouca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
SC Braga
2.29
Sporting CP
2.18
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.56
Estrela
1.50
Chaves
1.35
Boavista
1.29
Famalicao
1.29
Casa Pia
1.21
Vizela
1.18
Rio Ave
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.09
Estoril
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Maritimo
0.81
Pacos Ferreira
0.68
Santa Clara
0.65
Boavista is 0.29 points worse than Arouca in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.41
SC Braga
2.21
FC Porto
2.15
Sporting CP
2.09
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.26
Famalicao
1.15
Rio Ave
1.06
Arouca
1.06
Chaves
1.03
Vizela
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Maritimo
0.97
Estoril
0.97
GIL Vicente
0.94
Casa Pia
0.91
Pacos Ferreira
0.76
Santa Clara
0.76
Portimonense
0.74
Boavista is 0.21 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benfica
0.59
FC Porto
0.65
SC Braga
0.88
Sporting CP
0.94
Arouca
1.09
Vizela
1.12
Guimaraes
1.15
Chaves
1.18
Casa Pia
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Famalicao
1.38
Portimonense
1.41
Estoril
1.44
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.59
Santa Clara
1.71
Pacos Ferreira
1.82
Maritimo
1.83
Boavista is 0.50 goals worse than Arouca in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Boavista
For 2.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.2 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
For 4.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.2 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.7
8.2
4.1
4.0
4.1
29.3
29.1
29.5
vs Stronger (34)
9.2
9.7
8.7
3.7
3.9
3.6
27.3
26.6
28.0
vs Similar (16)
8.4
9.8
7.4
4.8
4.2
5.6
33.6
35.2
32.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
50%
36%
54%
56%
52%
89%
93%
86%
% under line
57%
50%
64%
46%
44%
48%
11%
7%
14%
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
3.8
3.7
3.9
31.2
31.0
31.4
vs Stronger (14)
7.4
5.2
10.3
2.9
3.2
2.3
30.7
33.5
27.0
vs Similar (27)
10.6
11.4
9.9
3.6
3.5
3.7
30.7
29.7
31.5
vs Weaker (9)
9.0
10.0
8.0
5.7
5.0
6.2
33.2
30.7
35.7
% over line
50%
57%
43%
50%
46%
54%
96%
100%
93%
% under line
50%
43%
57%
50%
54%
46%
4%
0%
7%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
12.0
Vizela
11.3
Chaves
11.1
Benfica
10.8
Pacos Ferreira
10.2
Portimonense
10.1
Guimaraes
10.1
Rio Ave
10.1
GIL Vicente
10.1
Estoril
10.0
Boavista
9.9
Santa Clara
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
FC Porto
9.6
Arouca
9.4
SC Braga
9.3
Maritimo
9.2
Sporting CP
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Estrela
7.1
Arouca
6.6
Boavista
6.4
Famalicao
6.4
Maritimo
6.4
Sporting CP
6.4
FC Porto
6.3
Vizela
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Guimaraes
5.7
Santa Clara
5.7
Estoril
5.6
Portimonense
5.6
SC Braga
5.4
Benfica
5.2
Chaves
5.0
Rio Ave
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
34.1
Santa Clara
31.7
Chaves
31.6
Pacos Ferreira
31.2
Arouca
31.0
Famalicao
30.9
Rio Ave
30.8
Estrela
30.7
Guimaraes
30.4
Boavista
30.0
Estoril
29.9
Portimonense
29.3
Sporting CP
28.5
FC Porto
28.4
Vizela
27.9
GIL Vicente
27.0
SC Braga
26.8
Benfica
26.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.0%
Under 9.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.3%
Under 3.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
94.0%
Under 21.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (21)
0.48
0.48
0.30
0.60
0.64
0.36
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.44
0.44
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.50
0.25
1.25
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.50
0.10
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.73
0.80
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (21)
0.48
1.19
0.50
0.80
0.45
1.55
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.89
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.94
0.62
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.38
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.29
1.30
0.30
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusupha Njie44%
Ricardo Mangas15%
Róbert Boženík13%
Vincent Sasso12%
Sebastián Pérez10%
Bruno Lourenço10%
Salvador Agra10%
Martim Tavares9%
Masaki Watai7%
Gaius Makouta6%
Bruno Onyemaechi3%
Kenji Gorré3%
César Dutra0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Rafael Bracali0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Reggie Cannon0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Luís Santos0%
Robson0%
Pedro Malheiro0%
Julio Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Ferreira43%
Sebastián Pérez34%
Miguel Reisinho33%
Bruno Lourenço31%
Reggie Cannon30%
Gaius Makouta28%
Rodrigo Abascal26%
Vincent Sasso25%
Yusupha Njie22%
Bruno Onyemaechi21%
Salvador Agra20%
Pedro Malheiro19%
Róbert Boženík17%
Ibrahima Camará17%
Ricardo Mangas15%
Joel Silva14%
Masaki Watai13%
Kenji Gorré13%
Luís Santos11%
Ilija Vukotić8%
Rafael Bracali7%
Martim Tavares5%
César Dutra0%
Robson0%
Julio Dabo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kenji Gorré20%
Gaius Makouta19%
Pedro Malheiro19%
Filipe Ferreira14%
Salvador Agra10%
Ibrahima Camará8%
Yusupha Njie7%
Rodrigo Abascal7%
Masaki Watai7%
Róbert Boženík4%
Ricardo Mangas4%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Bruno Onyemaechi3%
César Dutra0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Rafael Bracali0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Reggie Cannon0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Luís Santos0%
Robson0%
Martim Tavares0%
Julio Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yusupha Njie52%
Róbert Boženík17%
Bruno Lourenço14%
Kenji Gorré10%
Ricardo Mangas7%
Gaius Makouta6%
Ibrahima Camará4%
César Dutra0%
Masaki Watai0%
Salvador Agra0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Rafael Bracali0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Reggie Cannon0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Robson0%
Pedro Malheiro0%
Martim Tavares0%
Julio Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Arouca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oday Dabbagh36%
Rafa Mújica26%
Antony Alves18%
André Bukia14%
Morlaye Sylla12%
Alan Ruiz10%
João Basso9%
Benji Michel8%
Bruno Marques6%
Mateus Quaresma3%
Oriol Busquets0%
David Simão0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Nino Galović0%
Arsénio Nunes0%
Yaw Moses0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Emilijus Zubas0%
Ismaila Soro0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Weverson0%
Vitinho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tiago Esgaio35%
Emilijus Zubas33%
Alan Ruiz32%
Ismaila Soro27%
Bogdan Milovanov27%
Jerome Opoku25%
Weverson25%
David Simão23%
Pedro Moreira17%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena17%
Nino Galović16%
Mateus Quaresma16%
André Bukia14%
João Basso12%
Vitinho11%
Arsénio Nunes10%
Antony Alves9%
Morlaye Sylla9%
Bruno Marques6%
Oriol Busquets4%
Rafa Mújica4%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Yaw Moses0%
Benji Michel0%
Oday Dabbagh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitinho22%
Morlaye Sylla12%
David Simão10%
Benji Michel8%
Tiago Esgaio8%
Alan Ruiz6%
Arsénio Nunes6%
Nino Galović5%
Jerome Opoku4%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena3%
João Basso3%
Mateus Quaresma3%
Antony Alves3%
Oriol Busquets0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Yaw Moses0%
André Bukia0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Oday Dabbagh0%
Emilijus Zubas0%
Ismaila Soro0%
Rafa Mújica0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Weverson0%
Bruno Marques0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Mújica33%
Alan Ruiz26%
Oday Dabbagh21%
André Bukia14%
Antony Alves9%
Morlaye Sylla3%
Oriol Busquets0%
David Simão0%
Yusuf Lawal0%
Nino Galović0%
Arsénio Nunes0%
João Basso0%
Yaw Moses0%
Pedro Moreira0%
Benji Michel0%
Ignacio de Arruabarrena0%
Emilijus Zubas0%
Ismaila Soro0%
Tiago Esgaio0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Mateus Quaresma0%
Bogdan Milovanov0%
Weverson0%
Bruno Marques0%
Vitinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
Chaves
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Vizela
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Portimonense
Maritimo
Pacos Ferreira
Santa Clara
Estrela