This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.20
1.69
0.85
1.24
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.33
0.75
1.75
1.50
3.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.54
0.92
2.11
0.44
1.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.75-1.3%
Under 2.5
47.3%
@ 2.05+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.6%
0-1
12.1%
1-1
9.8%
0-3
9.6%
1-2 ✓
9.3%
0-0
7.1%
1-3
6.5%
0-4
5.0%
Boavista goals ↓
FC Porto goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
12%
14%
9.6%
5.0%
1
3.3%
9.8%
9.3%
6.5%
3.4%
2
1.4%
3.0%
3.2%
2.2%
1.2%
3
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boavista goals (down), columns = FC Porto goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.09
SC Braga
1.94
Santa Clara
1.68
Guimaraes
1.59
Famalicao
1.38
Estoril
1.35
Casa Pia
1.32
Moreirense
1.18
Rio Ave
1.12
Arouca
1.12
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
1.00
AVS
0.86
Estrela
0.85
Farense
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Vizela
0.50
Boavista is 1.38 points worse than FC Porto in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.59
Benfica
2.47
FC Porto
1.91
SC Braga
1.62
Estoril
1.41
Guimaraes
1.38
Famalicao
1.29
Moreirense
1.24
Casa Pia
1.15
Rio Ave
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Arouca
1.03
Vizela
1.00
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
0.94
AVS
0.83
Farense
0.74
Estrela
0.71
Boavista
0.71
Boavista is 1.21 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.79
Benfica
0.82
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
0.88
Santa Clara
0.94
Guimaraes
1.09
Famalicao
1.15
Casa Pia
1.29
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.44
Moreirense
1.47
Estrela
1.47
Nacional
1.47
Estoril
1.56
Rio Ave
1.62
AVS
1.72
Boavista
1.74
Vizela
2.50
Boavista is 0.85 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
71%
FC Porto
62%
Sporting CP
60%
Benfica
58%
SC Braga
57%
Guimaraes
57%
Arouca
53%
GIL Vicente
51%
Famalicao
50%
Estoril
49%
Rio Ave
48%
Moreirense
47%
Nacional
47%
Casa Pia
47%
Estrela
45%
Santa Clara
44%
AVS
43%
Farense
41%
Boavista
40%
Boavista is 22.2 percentage points worse than FC Porto in terms of average possession (40% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Boavista
For 4.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
For 5.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 13.7 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.7
5.7
5.6
5.7
27.5
27.8
27.3
vs Stronger (40)
9.1
8.3
9.7
5.9
6.1
5.7
27.2
27.8
26.8
vs Similar (10)
10.3
10.8
9.5
4.9
4.2
6.0
28.6
27.7
30.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
38%
44%
80%
79%
81%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
59%
62%
56%
20%
21%
19%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.3
8.9
5.7
5.7
5.7
26.4
27.0
25.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
7.8
9.0
5.3
6.6
6.3
7.0
24.2
23.8
25.0
vs Weaker (41)
10.0
10.7
9.4
5.5
5.4
5.5
26.9
28.0
26.0
% over line
54%
58%
50%
82%
83%
81%
85%
88%
83%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
18%
17%
19%
15%
12%
17%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
10.9
Nacional
10.6
Estrela
10.3
SC Braga
10.3
Guimaraes
10.2
Famalicao
10.1
Vizela
10.0
Rio Ave
10.0
Benfica
9.8
Arouca
9.8
FC Porto
9.6
Casa Pia
9.5
Boavista
9.4
Sporting CP
9.3
AVS
9.1
Estoril
9.0
GIL Vicente
8.7
Moreirense
8.3
Santa Clara
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Porto
6.2
Santa Clara
6.1
Famalicao
5.8
Boavista
5.8
Guimaraes
5.7
Arouca
5.3
AVS
5.3
SC Braga
5.2
Rio Ave
5.2
Casa Pia
5.0
Sporting CP
5.0
Farense
5.0
Estrela
4.9
Vizela
4.8
Nacional
4.8
Moreirense
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.7
Estoril
4.6
Benfica
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
30.2
Estrela
29.4
Santa Clara
29.2
Moreirense
28.7
Rio Ave
28.5
Farense
28.1
Estoril
28.1
Nacional
27.9
Guimaraes
27.9
AVS
27.7
Boavista
27.4
Arouca
27.3
GIL Vicente
26.9
FC Porto
26.7
Casa Pia
26.1
SC Braga
25.8
Sporting CP
25.5
Benfica
22.8
Vizela
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.0%
Under 9.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.6%
Under 3.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.1%
Under 21.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.73
0.13
0.80
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (24)
0.17
0.79
0.17
0.83
0.17
0.75
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.46
0.46
0.47
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.17
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.40
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.07
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
1.17
0.42
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.23
0.38
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.17
0.75
0.75
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.04
0.42
1.44
0.22
0.80
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Onyemaechi17%
Róbert Boženík15%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Vitaliy Lystsov12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Joel Silva7%
Sebastián Pérez3%
Salvador Agra3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Manuel Namora0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Layvin Kurzawa50%
Miguel Reisinho38%
Pedro Gomes33%
Salvador Agra28%
Bruno Onyemaechi28%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Vitaliy Lystsov25%
Sebastián Pérez24%
Ibrahima Camará23%
Sidoine Fogning23%
Osman Kakay22%
Róbert Boženík21%
Marco van Ginkel18%
Joel Silva13%
Steven Vitória12%
Manuel Namora12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Filipe Ferreira11%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Tomáš Vaclík8%
João Barros8%
César Dutra6%
Gonçalo Miguel5%
Moussa Koné0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
Tomás Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Augusto Dabo8%
Salvador Agra6%
Bruno Onyemaechi6%
Joel Silva3%
Róbert Boženík3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík30%
Moussa Koné14%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Salvador Agra6%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu Omorodion48%
Rodrigo Mora31%
Wenderson Galeno30%
Nico González24%
Iván Jaime15%
Fábio Vieira14%
Francisco Moura11%
Danny Namaso11%
Pepê10%
Deniz Gül10%
Iván Marcano9%
Otávio8%
Tiago Djaló7%
Gonçalo Borges6%
André Franco5%
Nehuén Pérez3%
Stephen Eustaquio3%
Diogo Costa0%
Fran Navarro0%
Marko Grujić0%
Cláudio Ramos0%
João Mário0%
Zé Pedro0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Alan Varela0%
Vasco Sousa0%
Martim Fernandes0%
Tomás Pérez0%
William Gomes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nehuén Pérez40%
Nico González40%
Cláudio Ramos33%
Otávio31%
Tomás Pérez29%
Alan Varela25%
Fábio Vieira22%
Gonçalo Borges21%
Stephen Eustaquio21%
Tiago Djaló20%
André Franco20%
João Mário17%
Martim Fernandes16%
Samu Omorodion15%
Wenderson Galeno15%
Danny Namaso14%
Zé Pedro12%
Pepê12%
Francisco Moura11%
William Gomes11%
Rodrigo Mora10%
Iván Jaime8%
Vasco Sousa7%
Deniz Gül5%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Marko Grujić0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Francisco Moura25%
Nico González20%
Fábio Vieira14%
João Mário14%
Rodrigo Mora14%
Martim Fernandes13%
Pepê10%
Gonçalo Borges9%
Iván Jaime8%
Samu Omorodion8%
Nehuén Pérez6%
Alan Varela5%
Wenderson Galeno4%
Danny Namaso3%
Stephen Eustaquio3%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Tiago Djaló0%
Marko Grujić0%
Cláudio Ramos0%
Zé Pedro0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Otávio0%
Vasco Sousa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Tomás Pérez0%
William Gomes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samu Omorodion35%
Wenderson Galeno26%
Iván Jaime15%
Fábio Vieira14%
Nico González12%
Danny Namaso8%
Vasco Sousa7%
Rodrigo Mora7%
Gonçalo Borges6%
Pepê5%
João Mário3%
Francisco Moura3%
Alan Varela2%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Tiago Djaló0%
Marko Grujić0%
Stephen Eustaquio0%
Cláudio Ramos0%
Zé Pedro0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Otávio0%
Martim Fernandes0%
Deniz Gül0%
Tomás Pérez0%
William Gomes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Arouca
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Farense
Vizela