Bristol Rovers are the clear favourites to win this match, especially given their recent form, having come off a defeat after a decent run of results. However, Newport County's recent 3-game winning streak suggests they're a force to be reckoned with. The model predicts a home win with a 54% probability, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 20%.
The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1 with a 12% probability.
Bristol Rovers have a good home record, scoring 1.75 goals on average and conceding 0.75, while their opponents have a similar strength. Newport County, meanwhile, have struggled away, scoring 0.89 goals on average and conceding 2.
The model's selection is the home win, and they also suggest Over 1.5 goals with a high 78.5% probability.
Results analysis
The Bristol Rovers’ victory, 5-3, was a dramatic finish that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 2.8 goals. The win extends their recent run, coming off a win in their last match against Newport County. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win, with a 54% probability, and that call proved correct. The selection Under 7.5, with a 99.1% probability, missed, while Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6% hit. Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9% also hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6% hit. Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9% hit, whereas Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.5% missed. The other Under 6.5 and Under 5.5 picks, both high-probability, also missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bristol Rvs win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied 55.8% · @ 1.66
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.70
Dafabet
1.70
10Bet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.78
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.08
Marathonbet
3.95
1xBet
3.95
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Newport County win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.74
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bristol Rvs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.67
1.07
1.20
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.41
1.21
1.67
1.07
1.14
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.50
1.20
1.20
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.54
1.00
1.31
1.15
1.77
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
@ 1.25+3.9%
Under 1.5
21.5%
@ 3.67-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
@ 1.81+1.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
@ 1.95-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.5%
@ 3.01+0.6%
Under 3.5
68.5%
@ 1.35-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
@ 1.76+2.4%
No
45.2%
@ 1.94-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
No
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.96
888Sport
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.83+5.5%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.41+3.8%
2-0
9.6%@ 7.60+3.7%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.77+2.9%
0-0
7.0%@ 10.53+2.7%
3-1
5.9%@ 12.07+2.2%
3-0
5.7%@ 12.14+2.0%
1-2
5.6%@ 13.84+2.4%
Bristol Rvs goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
5.0%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.5%
12%
5.6%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.8%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.7%
5.9%
3.0%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bristol Rvs goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Bristol Rvs is 0.41 points better than Newport County in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Bristol Rvs is 0.17 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Bristol Rvs is 0.26 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bristol Rvs
For 3.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 6.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol Rvs
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.4
4.6
4.3
24.2
23.5
24.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
9.2
9.4
9.1
4.5
4.6
4.4
24.3
23.5
25.1
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
19.0
-
19.0
% over line
40%
46%
33%
70%
75%
65%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
30%
25%
35%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.5
3.9
4.1
3.6
23.3
22.8
23.8
vs Stronger (6)
9.3
9.7
9.0
3.5
2.7
4.3
22.3
20.0
24.7
vs Similar (43)
9.6
9.6
9.5
3.8
4.2
3.5
23.4
23.1
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
57%
58%
56%
52%
64%
40%
67%
62%
72%
% under line
43%
42%
44%
48%
36%
60%
33%
38%
28%
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.75-1.8%
Under 9.5
48.8%
@ 1.98+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.6%
Under 21.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bristol Rvs or Draw✓ Hit
79.6%
Avg Implied 80.2% · @ 1.16
Edge
-0.6%
54%
25%
20%
covers Bristol Rvs + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Bristol Rvs or Newport County✓ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.1%
54%
25%
20%
covers Bristol Rvs + Newport County
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Newport County✗ Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied 44.0% · @ 2.12
Edge
+1.7%
54%
25%
20%
covers Draw + Newport County
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.5%
@ 1.13+1.4%
Under
16.5%
@ 5.17-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
10Bet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.7%
@ 1.73-0.2%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.02+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.9%
@ 3.30-1.2%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.29+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.57
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bristol Rvs over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
10.9%
@ 7.03-2.4%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Newport County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.3%
@ 1.52+3.2%
Under
35.7%
@ 2.39-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Newport County over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.6%
@ 3.58+1.6%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.25-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Newport County over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.6%
@ 9.45-1.3%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Superbet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.20
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Newport County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 23.50-2.0%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bristol Rvs, so a minus line means Bristol Rvs give that many goals of a start and Newport County receive them. At -1, Bristol Rvs must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bristol Rvs win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Draw
Bristol Rvs -2
14.4%
@ 5.36-2.3%
Draw -2
17.0%
@ 4.63-2.2%
Newport County +2
68.6%
@ 1.39+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.30
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Handicap -1 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs -1
31.4%
@ 2.74-1.2%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.49-2.6%
Newport County +1
45.7%
@ 2.13+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.85
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Away
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Handicap +1 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs +1
79.6%
@ 1.16+3.1%
Draw +1
12.7%
@ 5.99-2.1%
Newport County -1
7.7%
@ 10.19-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
Marathonbet
6.15
Handicap +2 (Bristol Rvs)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs +2
92.3%
@ 1.03+1.4%
Draw +2
5.6%
@ 15.00-0.7%
Newport County -2
2.2%
@ 32.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.66
0.80
0.53
0.29
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.62
0.38
0.54
0.23
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.34+1.0%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 3.05-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.11
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.59-3.4%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.44+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 6.37-3.3%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Betano
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.2%
@ 1.67-3.2%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.08+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Under
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 4.33-5.5%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.18+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 10.67-5.7%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.3%
@ 2.62+1.9%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.44-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Betano
2.70
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 9.35-1.9%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.75
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 40.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.55
0.87
0.53
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.92
0.62
0.77
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.8%
Under 1.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.5%
Under 2.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.5%
Under
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
93.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
89.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
84.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
10Bet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.6%
1.16
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
72.4%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-1.6%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
1.36
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.34
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
+1.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bristol Rvs
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom James67%
Bobby Kamwa50%
Ellis Harrison33%
B. Purrington25%
F. Cavegn25%
R. Smallwood0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Tommy Leigh0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom James67%
Tommy Leigh50%
R. Smallwood25%
Kofi Balmer25%
C. Mola25%
Bobby Kamwa25%
Riley Harbottle25%
Shaqai Forde25%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Brad Young0%
F. Cavegn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom James33%
Kofi Balmer25%
Brad Young25%
Tommy Leigh25%
R. Smallwood0%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
C. Mola0%
Bobby Kamwa0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
F. Cavegn0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bobby Kamwa50%
Tommy Leigh50%
F. Cavegn50%
Ellis Harrison33%
Shaqai Forde25%
Tom James0%
R. Smallwood0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Newport County
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Bristol Rvs's squad is €3m more valuable than Newport County's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's attack is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Bristol Rvs and Newport County have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Bristol Rvs's defence is €1m more valuable than Newport County's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale