Inter’s strong away form and Cagliari’s struggles at home make the Inter win the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 62 % probability to that outcome. The expected total goals hover at 3.0, but the most likely total is 2, a 24 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 10.7 % probability. Cagliari average 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Inter averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded on the road against weaker teams. The home win probability is 16 %, the draw 23 %, and the away win 62 %. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4 %, Under 7.5 at 99.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 % with a 4 % edge, Under 6.5 at 97.2 % with a 1 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.3 % with a 5 % edge, Away +2 handicap at 95.0 % with a 1 % edge, and Home under 2.5 goals at 94.0 % with a 1 % edge.
Results analysis
The latest Serie A clash saw Inter’s 2-game winning run continue as they edged Cagliari 0-1, a result that matched the model’s prediction of an away win. The favoured outcome, given a 63% probability, proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit, Under 7.5 hit, Home under 3.5 goals hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit, Under 6.5 hit, Away +2 handicap hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit, and Home under 2.5 goals hit. Each hit was recorded once, with probabilities expressed as percentages: 99.3%, 99.0%, 98.8%, 98.1%, 97.1%, 95.4%, 94.8%, and 94.3%. The match reinforced the model’s accuracy across both result and market selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cagliari win✗ Miss
15.3%
Avg Implied 12.4% · @ 7.70
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Dafabet
8.00
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.63
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.82
Pinnacle
4.76
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Inter win✓ Hit
62.6%
Avg Implied 67.1% · @ 1.42
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cagliari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
1.29
1.14
0.88
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.39
1.62
1.50
1.00
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.07
2.33
1.20
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.83
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
2.43
0.95
2.56
0.78
2.33
1.08
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.4%
@ 1.24+5.0%
Under 1.5
18.6%
@ 4.00-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.2%
@ 1.77+4.4%
Under 2.5
41.8%
@ 2.07-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
SBO
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
Under
1xBet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.8%
@ 2.87+3.0%
Under 3.5
64.2%
@ 1.40-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.95
Superbet
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.97+6.9%
No
45.6%
@ 1.78-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
No
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.5%@ 6.27+3.2%
1-1
10.5%@ 8.17+4.9%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.79+4.1%
0-1 ✓
9.1%@ 6.33+1.9%
0-3
7.3%@ 9.06+2.2%
1-3
6.9%@ 11.08+2.8%
0-0
5.8%@ 11.28+1.8%
2-2
4.7%@ 18.15+2.2%
Cagliari goals ↓
Inter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
9.1%
11%
7.3%
3.8%
1
3.6%
11%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.2%
4.5%
4.7%
3.3%
1.7%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cagliari goals (down), columns = Inter goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Cagliari is 1.16 points worse than Inter in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Cagliari is 1.29 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 2.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Cagliari is 0.47 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Cagliari is 14.2 percentage points worse than Inter in terms of average possession (46% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cagliari
For 4.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter
For 4.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cagliari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.4
8.3
3.7
3.5
3.9
27.2
28.3
26.2
vs Stronger (17)
10.5
10.4
10.5
3.1
2.9
3.2
25.2
25.9
24.8
vs Similar (33)
8.0
8.9
6.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
28.2
29.4
27.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
38%
38%
54%
54%
54%
82%
79%
85%
% under line
62%
62%
62%
46%
46%
46%
18%
21%
15%
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.2
8.3
3.3
3.1
3.5
24.1
23.4
24.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.5
7.6
9.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
24.1
22.4
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
9.7
11.5
7.7
3.2
2.9
3.5
24.0
23.8
24.3
% over line
52%
68%
36%
36%
40%
32%
56%
56%
56%
% under line
48%
32%
64%
64%
60%
68%
44%
44%
44%
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Monza
27.0
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.5
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.0%
@ 2.07-9.0%
Under 9.5
64.0%
@ 1.69+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.7%
@ 2.22+5.6%
Under 3.5
52.3%
@ 1.62-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Unibet
2.28
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.56
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
76.5%
@ 1.33+8.3%
Under 21.5
23.5%
@ 2.85-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cagliari or Draw✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.86
Edge
+3.1%
15%
22%
63%
covers Cagliari + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.92
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Cagliari or Inter✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.18
Edge
-2.1%
15%
22%
63%
covers Cagliari + Inter
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Draw or Inter✓ Hit
86.1%
Avg Implied 87.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
-1.0%
15%
22%
63%
covers Draw + Inter
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cagliari over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
57.7%
@ 1.78+5.3%
Under
42.3%
@ 1.96-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Cagliari over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
@ 4.97+2.5%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.15-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Unibet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Cagliari over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 14.80-0.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
1xBet
14.50
Marathonbet
14.50
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Cagliari over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 40.33-1.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Bet365
51.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Inter over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.0%
@ 1.08+1.2%
Under
13.0%
@ 6.56-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Inter over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
60.6%
@ 1.52-1.0%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.43+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Inter over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
33.5%
@ 2.64-1.8%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.44+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
1xBet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Inter over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 5.21-2.8%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.13+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cagliari, so a minus line means Cagliari give that many goals of a start and Inter receive them. At -1, Cagliari must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cagliari win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cagliari)Actual: Inter
Cagliari -2
1.1%
@ 72.67-0.2%
Draw -2
3.5%
@ 24.67-0.4%
Inter +2
95.4%
@ 1.01+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
91.00
Bet365
67.00
Superbet
60.00
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Away
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Handicap -1 (Cagliari)Actual: Inter
Cagliari -1
4.6%
@ 17.44-0.6%
Draw -1
9.3%
@ 8.15-1.7%
Inter +1
86.1%
@ 1.08+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Handicap +1 (Cagliari)Actual: Draw
Cagliari +1
36.1%
@ 2.89+4.9%
Draw +1
23.4%
@ 3.46-2.7%
Inter -1
40.4%
@ 2.12-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.88
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Away
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.07
Handicap +2 (Cagliari)Actual: Cagliari
Cagliari +2
59.6%
@ 1.66+4.9%
Draw +2
19.8%
@ 4.13-2.1%
Inter -2
20.6%
@ 3.87-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cagliari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.57
0.57
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.56
0.75
0.62
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.83
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.38
0.78
0.33
1.25
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.6%
@ 1.34+3.5%
Under 0.5
26.4%
@ 3.14-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Under
Superbet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.12
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.56+2.7%
Under 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.48-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 6.17-0.8%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.10+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.05
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.7%
@ 3.20+4.5%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.32-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Cagliari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 12.00-0.8%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Cagliari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 65.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
61.5%
@ 1.55+1.5%
Under
38.5%
@ 2.33-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.56
Unibet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.29
Betano
2.27
Inter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.0%
@ 3.65-2.3%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.24+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Betano
3.65
10Bet
3.60
Under
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Inter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 9.03-5.1%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
8.60
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cagliari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.71
0.57
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.17
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
0.88
0.88
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.47
0.67
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.57
1.78
0.44
1.08
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
81.3%
@ 1.20+3.5%
Under 0.5
18.7%
@ 4.21-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Betano
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.5%
@ 1.98+2.0%
Under 1.5
50.5%
@ 1.79-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.1%
@ 4.05-1.9%
Under 2.5
78.9%
@ 1.21+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.2%
@ 2.60+3.5%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.45-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Cagliari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 9.17+0.1%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
Superbet
9.80
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Cagliari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 29.50-1.5%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Inter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
70.8%
@ 1.36+2.6%
Under
29.2%
@ 2.92-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Superbet
2.87
Inter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.5%
@ 2.70-4.9%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.41+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Inter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.30-3.4%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.50
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
87.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
86.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
86.1%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
84.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.10
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.0%
1.23
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.4%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
78.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
75.2%
1.40
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.34
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Unibet
1.35
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.26
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
70.8%
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
-
-
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.5%
1.41
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
+4.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cagliari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alessandro Deiola25%
P. Mendy25%
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
J. Fazzini0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zé Pedro33%
Michel Adopo25%
Alessandro Deiola25%
D. Maldini25%
J. Fazzini25%
H. Winks0%
Elia Caprile0%
A. Obert0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
P. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
J. Fazzini0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
P. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Fazzini25%
Juan Rodríguez25%
H. Winks0%
Michel Adopo0%
Alessandro Deiola0%
Elia Caprile0%
Zé Pedro0%
D. Maldini0%
A. Obert0%
R. Kofler0%
A. Romano0%
P. Mendy0%
Inter · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lautaro Martínez48%
Marcus Thuram30%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu30%
Francesco Pio Esposito21%
Federico Dimarco17%
Ange-Yoan Bonny15%
Piotr Zieliński15%
Denzel Dumfries14%
Andy Diouf14%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Yann Bisseck9%
Petar Sučić8%
Nicolò Barella7%
Alessandro Bastoni5%
Manuel Akanji4%
Carlos Augusto4%
Luís Henrique2%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Yann Sommer0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Josep Martínez0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hakan Çalhanoğlu23%
Alessandro Bastoni23%
Nicolò Barella20%
Francesco Acerbi19%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan18%
Lautaro Martínez15%
Carlos Augusto13%
Stefan de Vrij12%
Petar Sučić12%
Yann Bisseck11%
Manuel Akanji11%
Federico Dimarco11%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Marcus Thuram7%
Piotr Zieliński6%
Francesco Pio Esposito6%
Andy Diouf4%
Luís Henrique2%
Ange-Yoan Bonny2%
Matteo Darmian0%
Yann Sommer0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Josep Martínez0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Federico Dimarco26%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu20%
Nicolò Barella18%
Marcus Thuram16%
Lautaro Martínez15%
Alessandro Bastoni13%
Ange-Yoan Bonny11%
Francesco Pio Esposito10%
Piotr Zieliński8%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Petar Sučić6%
Yann Bisseck6%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Luís Henrique5%
Francesco Acerbi4%
Davide Frattesi3%
Carlos Augusto2%
Manuel Akanji0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Yann Sommer0%
Josep Martínez0%
Andy Diouf0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lautaro Martínez42%
Marcus Thuram35%
Federico Dimarco20%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu17%
Francesco Pio Esposito17%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Carlos Augusto7%
Davide Frattesi6%
Andy Diouf4%
Piotr Zieliński2%
Petar Sučić2%
Manuel Akanji0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Yann Sommer0%
Luís Henrique0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Nicolò Barella0%
Alessandro Bastoni0%
Josep Martínez0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Cagliari's squad is €560m less valuable than Inter's (€134m vs €694m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Cagliari's attack is €168m less valuable than Inter's (€51m vs €220m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Cagliari's midfield is €201m less valuable than Inter's (€31m vs €232m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Cagliari's defence is €190m less valuable than Inter's (€52m vs €242m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina