PythiaFootballBETA
Cagliari is expected to emerge victorious in this Serie A encounter against Torino, with a home win probability of 45%. The match is likely to be a closely contested, low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.4 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 14% probability.
Cagliari's recent form has seen them on a 2-game winning run, with a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.38 goals and conceding 1.62. In contrast, Torino's away form has been less impressive, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 0.88 against similar opponents.
The model's selection for this match is the home win. The model also suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, with a 78% chance of success, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 70% chance of hitting. Additionally, there's a strong likelihood of Over 21.5 fouls, occurring with an 83% probability.
The probabilities for the three possible outcomes are: Cagliari win (45%), draw (30%), and Torino win (26%). The model's suggested picks and their probabilities are: Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%), and Over 21.5 fouls (83%).
Cagliari's 2-1 victory extends their 2-game winning run, with their most recent win coming against AC Milan. The model correctly predicted a home win, which was the pre-match favourite with a 45% probability. The model's selection was correct, as the actual result was a home win. The suggested picks had mixed results, with 'Under 3.5' goals hitting with a probability of 77.9%, while 'Over 1.5' goals also hit, but at a lower probability of 70.4%. Conversely, 'Over 21.5 fouls' was missed, with an 82.7% probability assigned to it.
Cagliari| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.13 | 1.27 | 0.87 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.64 | 1.36 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.21 | 1.58 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Torino| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.50 | 0.79 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.00 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.67 | 1.42 | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Torino goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
CagliariTorinoCagliari| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 27.7 | 28.5 | 27.1 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 25.2 | 25.6 | 24.9 |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.1 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 29.2 | 29.9 | 28.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 38% | 38% | 38% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 86% | 83% | 88% |
| % under line | 62% | 62% | 62% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 14% | 17% | 12% |
Torino| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 24.6 | 23.7 | 25.6 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 8.9 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 21.1 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
| vs Similar (35) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 26.2 | 25.1 | 27.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 48% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 52% | 70% | 68% | 72% |
| % under line | 56% | 52% | 60% | 54% | 60% | 48% | 30% | 32% | 28% |
Cagliari| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.27 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Torino| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.21 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Cagliari| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Torino| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 90.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 77.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 24/01/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/10/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 26/01/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/08/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 27/02/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/12/21 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/02/21 | H | 0-1 |
Cagliari| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 1-1 |
Torino| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Inter | 38 | 87 | 71% | 2.3 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 3.3 | 84% | 55% | 37% | 9.2 | 55% | 3.5 | 38% | 24.2 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 2 |  Napoli | 38 | 76 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 8.2 | 26% | 3.5 | 42% | 23.4 | 61% | 459 | 206 | 101 | 152 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 61% | 1.9 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 2.4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 8.6 | 34% | 4.1 | 66% | 27.8 | 89% | 471 | 138 | 118 | 215 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 4 |  Como | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 24% | 7.7 | 24% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.9 | 79% | 488 | 261 | 83 | 144 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 2.3 | 66% | 45% | 18% | 8.6 | 42% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 58% | 1279 | 442 | 385 | 452 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 6 |  Juventus | 38 | 69 | 50% | 1.8 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 2.5 | 74% | 39% | 24% | 9.2 | 37% | 3.7 | 59% | 22.3 | 61% | 569 | 240 | 140 | 189 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 58% |
| 7 |  Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.4 | 47% | 22.1 | 53% | 438 | 158 | 128 | 153 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bologna | 38 | 56 | 42% | 1.5 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 26% | 8.7 | 34% | 4.1 | 51% | 27.8 | 89% | 218 | 104 | 34 | 79 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 9 |  Lazio | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 2.1 | 66% | 32% | 16% | 7.9 | 29% | 4.9 | 76% | 25.1 | 68% | 240 | 60 | 86 | 93 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 10 |  Udinese | 38 | 50 | 37% | 1.3 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 2.4 | 68% | 45% | 21% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.7 | 53% | 25.1 | 79% | 157 | 46 | 39 | 72 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 2.5 | 74% | 55% | 21% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 24.9 | 68% | 194 | 90 | 53 | 52 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Parma | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 1.9 | 58% | 29% | 16% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.9 | 61% | 24.3 | 79% | 142 | 35 | 60 | 46 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 | Torino | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 2.8 | 74% | 63% | 29% | 8.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 44% | 24.5 | 68% | 144 | 43 | 46 | 54 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 2.4 | 76% | 50% | 18% | 8.9 | 37% | 4.1 | 58% | 28.6 | 89% | 134 | 51 | 31 | 52 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 24% | 1.1 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 2.4 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.8 | 78% | 28.1 | 92% | 330 | 125 | 107 | 98 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 16 |  Genoa | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 76% | 53% | 16% | 8.6 | 37% | 4.5 | 76% | 27.4 | 87% | 182 | 54 | 44 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 |  Lecce | 38 | 38 | 26% | 1.0 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 9.6 | 58% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.7 | 74% | 72 | 20 | 16 | 37 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 46% | 26.4 | 84% | 49 | 12 | 15 | 22 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 38 | 21 | 8% | 0.6 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 2.3 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.0 | 42% | 4.1 | 54% | 25.3 | 74% | 57 | 13 | 14 | 30 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 20 |  Pisa | 38 | 18 | 5% | 0.5 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 2.6 | 66% | 53% | 32% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.8 | 53% | 24.7 | 79% | 71 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 40% |