This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.73
3.20
0.73
1.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.89
1.40
1.20
2.25
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
2.81
0.67
4.10
0.50
1.64
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.4%
Under 1.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.1%
@ 1.85-22.2%
Under 2.5
70.9%
@ 1.95+22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.2%
Under 3.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.2%
No
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
16.6%
1-1
14.7%
0-1
14.4%
1-0
11.6%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
5.5%
Casa Pia goals ↓
FC Porto goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
14%
8.2%
2.8%
0.7%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
5.5%
5.6%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
3
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Casa Pia goals (down), columns = FC Porto goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
SC Braga
2.29
Sporting CP
2.18
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.56
Estrela
1.50
Chaves
1.35
Boavista
1.29
Famalicao
1.29
Casa Pia
1.21
Vizela
1.18
Rio Ave
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.09
Estoril
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Maritimo
0.81
Pacos Ferreira
0.68
Santa Clara
0.65
Casa Pia is 1.29 points worse than FC Porto in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.41
SC Braga
2.21
FC Porto
2.15
Sporting CP
2.09
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.26
Famalicao
1.15
Rio Ave
1.06
Arouca
1.06
Chaves
1.03
Vizela
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Maritimo
0.97
Estoril
0.97
GIL Vicente
0.94
Casa Pia
0.91
Pacos Ferreira
0.76
Santa Clara
0.76
Portimonense
0.74
Casa Pia is 1.24 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 2.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benfica
0.59
FC Porto
0.65
SC Braga
0.88
Sporting CP
0.94
Arouca
1.09
Vizela
1.12
Guimaraes
1.15
Chaves
1.18
Casa Pia
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Famalicao
1.38
Portimonense
1.41
Estoril
1.44
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.59
Santa Clara
1.71
Pacos Ferreira
1.82
Maritimo
1.83
Casa Pia is 0.53 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Casa Pia
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Porto
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Casa Pia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.3
4.9
4.5
5.3
27.1
25.1
29.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.2
9.4
9.0
7.5
6.3
9.2
27.7
24.6
30.8
vs Weaker (38)
9.8
10.3
9.4
4.1
3.8
4.3
26.9
25.2
28.6
% over line
47%
61%
33%
60%
56%
64%
81%
72%
89%
% under line
53%
39%
67%
40%
44%
36%
19%
28%
11%
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
13.8
Vizela
11.3
Chaves
11.1
Benfica
10.8
Pacos Ferreira
10.2
Portimonense
10.1
Guimaraes
10.1
Rio Ave
10.1
GIL Vicente
10.1
Estoril
10.0
Boavista
9.9
FC Porto
9.7
Santa Clara
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
Arouca
9.4
SC Braga
9.4
Maritimo
9.2
Sporting CP
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
6.6
Boavista
6.4
Famalicao
6.4
Maritimo
6.4
FC Porto
6.4
Sporting CP
6.3
Estrela
6.2
Vizela
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Guimaraes
5.7
Santa Clara
5.7
Estoril
5.6
Portimonense
5.6
SC Braga
5.4
Benfica
5.2
Chaves
5.0
Rio Ave
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
34.1
Santa Clara
31.7
Chaves
31.6
Pacos Ferreira
31.2
Arouca
31.0
Famalicao
30.9
Rio Ave
30.8
Estrela
30.5
Guimaraes
30.4
Boavista
30.0
Estoril
29.9
Portimonense
29.3
Sporting CP
28.8
FC Porto
28.6
Vizela
27.9
SC Braga
27.0
GIL Vicente
27.0
Benfica
26.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.8%
Under 3.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
95.1%
Under 21.5
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Casa Pia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.21
0.14
0.00
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.38
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
79% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.23
1.60
0.13
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.11
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.43
0.29
2.10
0.10
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
83% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Casa Pia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.75
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.50
1.60
0.60
1.07
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.78
0.80
1.00
1.75
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.38
2.00
0.40
0.82
0.36
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Casa Pia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felippe Cardoso27%
Rafael Martins23%
Carnejy Antoine17%
Clayton14%
Saviour Godwin13%
Yuki Soma11%
Léo Bolgado9%
Neto7%
Takahiro Kunimoto4%
João Nunes4%
Fernando Varela4%
Lucas Soares4%
Leonardo Lelo4%
Nermin Zolotić0%
Léo Natel0%
Duplexe Tchamba0%
Vitó0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Romário Baró0%
Derick Poloni0%
Cuca0%
Ricardo Batista0%
Yan Eteki0%
Eduardo Fereira0%
Afonso Taira0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Beni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neto30%
Afonso Taira28%
Felippe Cardoso27%
Léo Bolgado27%
Saviour Godwin27%
Vitó25%
Yan Eteki24%
Yuki Soma22%
Beni21%
Takahiro Kunimoto21%
Clayton21%
Cuca20%
Rafael Martins19%
Lucas Soares19%
Vasco Fernandes17%
Romário Baró17%
Ricardo Batista16%
Nermin Zolotić14%
Fernando Varela11%
Leonardo Lelo11%
João Nunes8%
Diogo Pinto6%
Léo Natel0%
Duplexe Tchamba0%
Derick Poloni0%
Eduardo Fereira0%
Carnejy Antoine0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Leonardo Lelo22%
Diogo Pinto12%
Takahiro Kunimoto8%
Neto7%
Lucas Soares7%
Beni7%
Yuki Soma6%
Romário Baró6%
Rafael Martins4%
Saviour Godwin3%
Afonso Taira3%
Fernando Varela0%
Nermin Zolotić0%
Felippe Cardoso0%
Léo Natel0%
Duplexe Tchamba0%
João Nunes0%
Vitó0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Derick Poloni0%
Cuca0%
Ricardo Batista0%
Yan Eteki0%
Eduardo Fereira0%
Carnejy Antoine0%
Clayton0%
Léo Bolgado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Saviour Godwin27%
Felippe Cardoso18%
Yuki Soma17%
Takahiro Kunimoto8%
Rafael Martins8%
Clayton7%
Leonardo Lelo4%
Fernando Varela0%
Nermin Zolotić0%
Léo Natel0%
Duplexe Tchamba0%
João Nunes0%
Neto0%
Vitó0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Romário Baró0%
Derick Poloni0%
Cuca0%
Ricardo Batista0%
Yan Eteki0%
Eduardo Fereira0%
Afonso Taira0%
Lucas Soares0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Carnejy Antoine0%
Beni0%
Léo Bolgado0%
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mehdi Taremi48%
Evanilson23%
Wenderson Galeno21%
Otávio15%
Iván Marcano14%
Mateus Uribe13%
Toni Martínez13%
Danny Namaso12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Pepê10%
Fábio Cardoso10%
João Mário4%
Zaidu Sanusi4%
Marko Grujić4%
Wendell3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Gabriel Veron0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iván Marcano32%
David Carmo29%
Otávio26%
Mateus Uribe26%
João Mário26%
Fábio Cardoso24%
Marko Grujić21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Pepe14%
Wilson Manafá14%
Bernardo Folha14%
Wendell12%
Pepê12%
Zaidu Sanusi12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Danny Namaso8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Evanilson3%
Diogo Costa2%
Bruno Costa0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Toni Martínez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Otávio21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Evanilson19%
Pepê14%
João Mário13%
Bruno Costa11%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
Toni Martínez11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Gabriel Veron10%
Danny Namaso8%
Wendell6%
Diogo Costa2%
Pepe0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Mateus Uribe0%
Marko Grujić0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Taremi45%
Wenderson Galeno18%
Evanilson16%
Toni Martínez13%
Stephen Eustáquio8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Pepê5%
Danny Namaso4%
Marko Grujić4%
Otávio3%
Mateus Uribe3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Wendell0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
João Mário0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
EST (22)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Casa Pia's squad is €440m less valuable than FC Porto's (€27m vs €467m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Casa Pia's attack is €205m less valuable than FC Porto's (€9m vs €214m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Casa Pia's midfield is €99m less valuable than FC Porto's (€6m vs €105m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Casa Pia's defence is €135m less valuable than FC Porto's (€12m vs €148m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Benfica
SC Braga
Sporting CP
Arouca
Guimaraes
Chaves
Famalicao
Boavista
Vizela
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Portimonense
Maritimo
Pacos Ferreira
Santa Clara
Estrela