Charlton and Preston face off in a tightly contested Championship match where neither side holds a clear edge. The model favours a home win, giving Charlton a 39 % chance, a 30 % chance of a draw, and a 31 % chance for Preston. The average number of goals expected is 2.4, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4 % probability.
Charlton, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Preston, on the road, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.9 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4 % with a 3 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.6 % with a 3 % edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5 % with a 6 % edge).
Results analysis
Charlton’s win extends a strong run, with a 1-0 victory over Preston confirming the model’s home win pick and the 1-0 final score. The prediction model had chosen a home win with a 38% probability, and it proved correct. The most likely total was two goals, a 28% chance, and the match delivered exactly that. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%) and Under 5.5 (96.6%). The home side’s recent form, noted as coming off a win, and the away side’s recent slump after four defeats, framed a match that matched the model’s expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charlton win✓ Hit
37.8%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.10
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.15
Dafabet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.26
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.43
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
Preston win✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.57
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.83
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Charlton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
0.93
1.40
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.78
0.75
2.25
1.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.40
1.00
1.09
0.89
1.78
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Preston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.70
0.94
1.75
1.00
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
1.58
1.00
1.60
1.09
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.36+0.7%
Under 1.5
30.1%
@ 3.05-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.21
Superbet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.3%
@ 2.12-2.2%
Under 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.70+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Unibet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Under
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
@ 3.81-3.0%
Under 3.5
78.4%
@ 1.24+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
Unibet
3.95
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.85-0.8%
No
50.6%
@ 1.86+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
No
William Hil
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.89+6.8%
0-0
10.6%@ 8.27+5.2%
1-0 ✓
10.3%@ 6.44+3.4%
0-1
9.2%@ 8.84+4.1%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.25+2.7%
1-2
7.4%@ 11.43+3.4%
2-0
7.3%@ 9.07+2.3%
0-2
5.9%@ 16.95+3.3%
Charlton goals ↓
Preston goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.3%
8.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.0%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charlton goals (down), columns = Preston goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Charlton is 0.15 points worse than Preston in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Charlton is 0.24 goals worse than Preston in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Charlton is 0.09 goals better than Preston in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Charlton is 3.3 percentage points worse than Preston in terms of average possession (42% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Charlton
For 4.0 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Preston
For 4.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charlton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.1
3.6
3.8
3.5
21.5
20.8
22.0
vs Stronger (15)
10.9
9.4
12.2
3.4
3.7
3.1
19.9
21.4
18.6
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.5
9.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
22.2
20.6
23.9
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
-
6.0
3.5
-
3.5
20.5
-
20.5
% over line
46%
50%
42%
48%
50%
46%
46%
46%
46%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
52%
50%
54%
54%
54%
54%
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Preston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.1
10.0
3.4
3.7
3.2
20.0
19.2
20.9
vs Stronger (8)
10.6
11.6
9.0
2.1
2.8
1.0
17.1
15.4
20.0
vs Similar (42)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.7
3.9
3.5
20.5
20.0
21.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
63%
48%
50%
56%
43%
30%
26%
35%
% under line
44%
37%
52%
50%
44%
57%
70%
74%
65%
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.1%
@ 1.74-1.1%
Under 9.5
47.9%
@ 1.97+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.74
Under
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.6%
@ 1.80-2.6%
Under 3.5
51.4%
@ 1.90+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.77
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
44.3%
Under 21.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Charlton or Draw✓ Hit
68.2%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
-5.1%
38%
30%
32%
covers Charlton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Charlton or Preston✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-2.0%
38%
30%
32%
covers Charlton + Preston
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Draw or Preston✗ Miss
62.2%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.70
Edge
+7.2%
38%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Preston
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Bet365
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Charlton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.3%
@ 1.24-3.6%
Under
28.7%
@ 3.71+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.03
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.70
Charlton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.5%
@ 2.21-6.7%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.61+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Charlton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.94-5.7%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.14+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Charlton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 11.92-4.2%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.04+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Preston over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.5%
@ 1.46+3.8%
Under
32.5%
@ 2.56-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.55
Preston over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.0%
@ 3.27+2.5%
Under
69.0%
@ 1.30-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
Marathonbet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Preston over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 8.76-0.2%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.04+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Preston over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 21.50-1.7%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Charlton, so a minus line means Charlton give that many goals of a start and Preston receive them. At -1, Charlton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Charlton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Charlton)Actual: Preston
Charlton -2
5.9%
@ 9.22-3.9%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 5.91-3.9%
Preston +2
82.8%
@ 1.20+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Draw
Marathonbet
6.20
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Charlton)Actual: Draw
Charlton -1
17.2%
@ 3.95-5.5%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 3.64-4.0%
Preston +1
62.2%
@ 1.70+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Superbet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Charlton)Actual: Charlton
Charlton +1
68.2%
@ 1.27-3.0%
Draw +1
18.5%
@ 5.03+0.5%
Preston -1
13.3%
@ 8.38+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Charlton)Actual: Charlton
Charlton +2
86.7%
@ 1.05-0.2%
Draw +2
9.2%
@ 10.38+0.4%
Preston -2
4.1%
@ 21.25-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Charlton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.27
0.80
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.55
0.27
0.73
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Preston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.31
0.62
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.77
0.33
0.60
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.44+2.5%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 2.65-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.79
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Superbet
2.72
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 3.08-0.1%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.34+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.9%
@ 8.06-1.6%
Under 2.5
90.1%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.20
William Hil
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Charlton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.98-1.5%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.76+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Charlton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 5.99-4.5%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.09+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.65
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
Charlton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 15.25-4.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Preston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.3%
@ 2.53+3.5%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.47-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.51
10Bet
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Preston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 9.33-0.5%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.04+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.50
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.40
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Preston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 34.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Charlton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.67
0.60
0.67
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.50
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.73
0.36
0.67
1.44
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Preston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.62
1.12
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.81
0.67
1.00
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.27+3.3%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 3.48-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Under
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.28-1.1%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.58+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 5.09-3.3%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.14+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Charlton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.2%
@ 1.68-3.1%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Charlton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 4.34-5.1%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.18+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Charlton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 11.12-5.1%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Preston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.5%
@ 2.08+1.9%
Under
53.5%
@ 1.68-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Preston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 6.65+0.6%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Preston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 17.00-3.3%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.8%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.03
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.4%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
1.36
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.5%
1.44
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.37
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Charlton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tyreece Campbell80%
Lloyd Jones50%
Karlan Grant20%
Sonny Carey20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Danny McNamara17%
Lloyd Jones17%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Sonny Carey0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sonny Carey40%
Nathaniel Chalobah25%
Conor Coventry20%
Karlan Grant20%
Joe Rankin-Costello20%
Millenic Alli20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sonny Carey20%
Tyreece Campbell20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Karlan Grant0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Arthur Okonkwo0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Preston
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jusef Erabi33%
J. Thompson17%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
L. Leroy0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
A. Vukčević0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ali McCann75%
L. Leroy40%
Andrew Hughes33%
J. Thompson33%
Pol Valentín33%
H. Clarke25%
L. Lindsay20%
A. Vukčević20%
Jusef Erabi17%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
Andrew Moran0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Delano Burgzorg33%
A. Vukčević20%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
J. Thompson0%
L. Leroy0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Jusef Erabi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Leroy20%
Jusef Erabi17%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
J. Thompson0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
A. Vukčević0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Charlton's squad is €11m less valuable than Preston's (€31m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Charlton and Preston have a similar attack value (both €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Charlton and Preston have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Charlton's defence is €12m less valuable than Preston's (€10m vs €22m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley