This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.93
1.67
1.00
1.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.22
0.83
1.88
0.75
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
1.08
1.43
1.29
3.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.67-0.0%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 2.16+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.8%
0-1
10.2%
1-1
10.1%
1-2 ✓
9.8%
0-3
8.3%
1-3
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
0-4
4.4%
Chateauroux goals ↓
Estac Troyes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
10%
12%
8.3%
4.4%
1
3.4%
10%
9.8%
6.9%
3.6%
2
1.8%
3.8%
4.0%
2.8%
1.5%
3
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chateauroux goals (down), columns = Estac Troyes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Clermont Foot
1.89
Toulouse
1.84
Grenoble
1.71
Paris FC
1.68
Auxerre
1.63
Sochaux
1.34
Le Havre
1.24
Guingamp
1.24
Valenciennes
1.24
Nancy
1.24
Amiens
1.24
Ajaccio
1.21
PAU
1.16
Rodez
1.13
Niort
1.08
Caen
1.08
Dunkerque
1.08
Chambly
1.00
Chateauroux
0.61
Chateauroux is 1.42 points worse than Estac Troyes in terms of average points per game (0.61 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Toulouse
1.87
Auxerre
1.68
Clermont Foot
1.61
Estac Troyes
1.58
Nancy
1.39
Paris FC
1.39
Grenoble
1.34
Valenciennes
1.32
Sochaux
1.18
PAU
1.11
Chambly
1.08
Guingamp
1.08
Le Havre
1.00
Rodez
1.00
Niort
0.89
Caen
0.89
Amiens
0.89
Dunkerque
0.89
Ajaccio
0.89
Chateauroux
0.84
Chateauroux is 0.74 goals worse than Estac Troyes in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Clermont Foot
0.66
Grenoble
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.95
Paris FC
0.97
Sochaux
0.97
Amiens
1.05
Toulouse
1.11
Guingamp
1.13
Auxerre
1.13
Ajaccio
1.13
Rodez
1.16
Dunkerque
1.24
Le Havre
1.26
Caen
1.29
PAU
1.29
Nancy
1.39
Niort
1.53
Chateauroux
1.53
Valenciennes
1.55
Chambly
1.68
Chateauroux is 0.58 goals worse than Estac Troyes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chateauroux
For 5.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 18.6 · Total 35.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
For 5.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 14.7 · Total 31.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chateauroux
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
29.9
29.6
30.1
vs Stronger (30)
9.0
8.9
9.1
3.8
3.5
4.1
29.3
29.0
29.6
vs Similar (20)
9.8
10.7
9.0
4.2
4.8
3.5
30.8
30.6
30.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
56%
44%
60%
60%
60%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
40%
40%
40%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.8
9.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
29.3
29.1
29.6
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
-
9.0
6.0
-
6.0
34.0
-
34.0
vs Similar (30)
9.4
8.8
10.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
28.8
28.7
28.8
vs Weaker (19)
8.6
8.7
8.4
4.2
4.5
3.8
30.0
29.6
30.4
% over line
46%
44%
48%
70%
76%
64%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
30%
24%
36%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Auxerre
10.1
PAU
9.8
Guingamp
9.8
Toulouse
9.6
Chateauroux
9.4
Clermont Foot
9.1
Estac Troyes
9.1
Niort
8.9
Ajaccio
8.9
Caen
8.8
Valenciennes
8.6
Nancy
8.6
Grenoble
8.6
Sochaux
8.5
Amiens
8.3
Paris FC
8.2
Rodez
8.1
Le Havre
8.0
Dunkerque
7.5
Chambly
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Valenciennes
4.7
Estac Troyes
4.6
Paris FC
4.6
Caen
4.6
Chambly
4.5
Rodez
4.5
Amiens
4.4
PAU
4.4
Sochaux
4.2
Dunkerque
4.2
Nancy
4.1
Toulouse
4.1
Grenoble
4.1
Niort
4.0
Chateauroux
4.0
Guingamp
3.9
Le Havre
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.8
Ajaccio
3.7
Auxerre
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valenciennes
31.8
Amiens
31.7
Chambly
31.5
Dunkerque
31.3
Nancy
31.1
Niort
30.4
Toulouse
30.3
Paris FC
30.0
Chateauroux
29.9
Rodez
29.9
Caen
29.7
Estac Troyes
29.3
Sochaux
29.3
PAU
29.0
Grenoble
28.3
Guingamp
28.3
Ajaccio
28.0
Le Havre
27.7
Clermont Foot
25.9
Auxerre
25.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.3%
Under 9.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.9%
Under 3.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.6%
Under 21.5
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chateauroux
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.87
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.75
0.22
0.89
0.27
0.64
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.33
1.12
0.25
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.57
0.57
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chateauroux
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.87
0.93
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.27
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.90
1.67
0.83
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.50
0.86
0.71
1.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estac Troyes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawfik Bentayeb48%
Martin Adeline32%
Renaud Ripart29%
Kandet Diawara23%
Jaures Assoumou21%
Mounaim El Idrissy14%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Antoine Mille9%
Mathys Detourbet9%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Ismaël Boura4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Lucas Maronnier0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Diakité33%
Nicolas Lemaitre30%
Adrien Monfray26%
Hugo Gambor26%
Lucas Maronnier22%
Mounaim El Idrissy21%
Paolo Gozzi20%
Xavier Chavalerin20%
Antoine Mille18%
Jaures Assoumou16%
Martin Adeline15%
Ismaël Boura14%
Sankhoun Diawara13%
Anis Ouzenadji13%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Mathys Detourbet11%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Hillel Konaté8%
Kandet Diawara8%
Alexandre Phliponeau7%
Yvann Titi5%
Merwan Ifnaoui3%
Roman Murcy0%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede0%
Noah Donkor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Adeline29%
Noah Donkor20%
Yvann Titi18%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Antoine Mille12%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Mouhamed Diop9%
Kandet Diawara8%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Mounaim El Idrissy7%
Ismaël Boura7%
Sankhoun Diawara7%
Hugo Gambor5%
Jaures Assoumou5%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Renaud Ripart0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Roman Murcy0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawfik Bentayeb42%
Jaures Assoumou32%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Kandet Diawara15%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Merwan Ifnaoui7%
Martin Adeline6%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Mounaim El Idrissy4%
Antoine Mille3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Anis Ouzenadji0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (37)
€176m
TOU (24)
€115m
AUX (29)
€84m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
SOC (20)
€7m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
VAL (21)
€4m
CHA (5)
€1m
Chateauroux's squad is €35m less valuable than Estac Troyes's (€1m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (13)
€59m
TOU (7)
€30m
AUX (11)
€23m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
CF (5)
€2m
CAE (8)
€2m
VAL (8)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
CHA (1)
€0m
Chateauroux's attack is €7m less valuable than Estac Troyes's (€0m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (7)
€54m
TOU (7)
€39m
AUX (5)
€28m
LH (5)
€23m
ET (6)
€11m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
VAL (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
CHA (2)
€0m
Chateauroux's midfield is €11m less valuable than Estac Troyes's (€0m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (17)
€62m
TOU (10)
€46m
AUX (13)
€33m
LH (10)
€23m
ET (10)
€17m
CF (12)
€10m
ROD (10)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
GRE (10)
€4m
AMI (8)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
VAL (10)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
CHA (2)
€0m
Chateauroux's defence is €17m less valuable than Estac Troyes's (€0m vs €17m).
France: Ligue 2 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Clermont Foot
Toulouse
Grenoble
Paris FC
Auxerre
Sochaux
Nancy
Guingamp
Amiens
Valenciennes
Le Havre
Ajaccio
PAU
Rodez
Dunkerque
Caen
Niort