This opponent (Toulouse) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.80
1.13
1.67
0.93
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.20
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.33
vs Similar (11)
0.73
2.18
0.71
1.71
0.75
3.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
1.36
1.83
1.50
1.38
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 2.17+13.2%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.67-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.1%
0-1
10.8%
0-3 ✓
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
1-1
9.2%
1-3
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
0-4
5.5%
Chateauroux goals ↓
Toulouse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
11%
13%
9.8%
5.5%
1
2.9%
9.2%
9.3%
7.0%
3.9%
2
1.3%
3.0%
3.3%
2.5%
1.4%
3
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chateauroux goals (down), columns = Toulouse goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Clermont Foot
1.89
Toulouse
1.84
Grenoble
1.71
Paris FC
1.68
Auxerre
1.63
Sochaux
1.34
Le Havre
1.24
Guingamp
1.24
Valenciennes
1.24
Nancy
1.24
Amiens
1.24
Ajaccio
1.21
PAU
1.16
Rodez
1.13
Niort
1.08
Caen
1.08
Dunkerque
1.08
Chambly
1.00
Chateauroux
0.61
Chateauroux is 1.24 points worse than Toulouse in terms of average points per game (0.61 vs 1.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Toulouse
1.87
Auxerre
1.68
Clermont Foot
1.61
Estac Troyes
1.58
Nancy
1.39
Paris FC
1.39
Grenoble
1.34
Valenciennes
1.32
Sochaux
1.18
PAU
1.11
Chambly
1.08
Guingamp
1.08
Le Havre
1.00
Rodez
1.00
Niort
0.89
Caen
0.89
Amiens
0.89
Dunkerque
0.89
Ajaccio
0.89
Chateauroux
0.84
Chateauroux is 1.03 goals worse than Toulouse in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Clermont Foot
0.66
Grenoble
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.95
Paris FC
0.97
Sochaux
0.97
Amiens
1.05
Toulouse
1.11
Guingamp
1.13
Auxerre
1.13
Ajaccio
1.13
Rodez
1.16
Dunkerque
1.24
Le Havre
1.26
Caen
1.29
PAU
1.29
Nancy
1.39
Niort
1.53
Chateauroux
1.53
Valenciennes
1.55
Chambly
1.68
Chateauroux is 0.42 goals worse than Toulouse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chateauroux
For 4.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 15.4 · Total 31.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
For 3.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 18.0 · Total 33.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chateauroux
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.4
8.4
3.9
4.1
3.8
27.0
26.5
27.5
vs Stronger (28)
9.4
9.8
8.9
4.4
4.2
4.6
26.2
27.1
25.0
vs Similar (22)
9.3
11.6
7.9
3.4
4.0
3.1
28.0
25.2
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
64%
32%
56%
60%
52%
86%
88%
84%
% under line
52%
36%
68%
44%
40%
48%
14%
12%
16%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.9
9.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
28.3
27.5
29.1
vs Stronger (10)
9.0
8.7
9.5
3.4
4.2
2.2
22.6
24.3
20.0
vs Similar (20)
11.0
11.2
10.8
3.2
3.6
2.9
28.9
28.9
28.8
vs Weaker (20)
9.2
9.2
9.1
4.8
4.1
5.4
30.6
28.0
32.7
% over line
56%
56%
56%
56%
52%
60%
82%
84%
80%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
44%
48%
40%
18%
16%
20%
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Guingamp
10.1
Auxerre
9.9
Toulouse
9.9
PAU
9.9
Estac Troyes
9.6
Le Havre
9.5
Valenciennes
9.4
Chateauroux
9.4
Clermont Foot
9.0
Grenoble
9.0
Niort
9.0
Rodez
9.0
Ajaccio
8.9
Caen
8.8
Sochaux
8.8
Nancy
8.8
Amiens
8.4
Paris FC
8.4
Chambly
7.5
Dunkerque
7.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PAU
5.4
Paris FC
4.9
Estac Troyes
4.7
Caen
4.6
Chambly
4.6
Le Havre
4.6
Rodez
4.5
Amiens
4.5
Valenciennes
4.5
Nancy
4.4
Dunkerque
4.3
Sochaux
4.3
Clermont Foot
4.2
Guingamp
4.1
Ajaccio
4.1
Niort
4.0
Chateauroux
3.9
Toulouse
3.9
Grenoble
3.8
Auxerre
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dunkerque
33.1
PAU
31.1
Chambly
30.5
Paris FC
30.4
Nancy
30.1
Caen
29.5
Valenciennes
29.4
Amiens
29.2
Niort
29.1
Sochaux
28.6
Ajaccio
28.4
Toulouse
28.3
Estac Troyes
28.2
Grenoble
28.0
Rodez
27.7
Chateauroux
27.0
Guingamp
26.8
Le Havre
26.6
Auxerre
26.2
Clermont Foot
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.5%
Under 9.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.8%
Under 3.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.2%
Under 21.5
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chateauroux
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.38
0.88
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.88
0.30
0.90
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.36
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.83
0.47
0.53
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.27
1.00
0.29
0.57
0.25
1.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.71
0.67
0.50
0.38
0.88
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chateauroux
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.88
0.50
1.20
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.71
0.83
0.33
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.67
1.13
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.18
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.64
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Chateauroux) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chateauroux over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chateauroux over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Toulouse · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Frank Magri24%
Yann Gboho23%
Emersonn23%
Aron Dønnum16%
Santiago Hidalgo16%
Julian Vignolo13%
Charlie Cresswell12%
Djibril Sidibé9%
Seny Koumbassa8%
Jacen Russell-Rowe7%
Dayann Methalie7%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.6%
Pape Diop5%
Alexis Vossah4%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Mario Sauer3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Kjetil Haug0%
Mark McKenzie0%
Abu Francis0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kjetil Haug33%
Dayann Methalie33%
Aron Dønnum28%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.26%
Abu Francis25%
Charlie Cresswell25%
Rafik Messali21%
Mark McKenzie21%
Pape Diop21%
Alexis Vossah20%
Emersonn19%
Frank Magri18%
Mario Sauer17%
Santiago Hidalgo16%
Rasmus Nicolaisen11%
Guillaume Restes9%
Seny Koumbassa8%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Djibril Sidibé3%
Yann Gboho3%
Jacen Russell-Rowe0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Santiago Hidalgo19%
Aron Dønnum16%
Pape Diop11%
Emersonn10%
Charlie Cresswell9%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.9%
Djibril Sidibé9%
Yann Gboho9%
Mark McKenzie6%
Frank Magri6%
Alexis Vossah4%
Warren Kamanzi4%
Dayann Methalie3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Kjetil Haug0%
Abu Francis0%
Jacen Russell-Rowe0%
Mario Sauer0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Seny Koumbassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emersonn26%
Frank Magri18%
Pape Diop16%
Santiago Hidalgo12%
Aron Dønnum9%
Charlie Cresswell9%
Yann Gboho9%
Noah Edjouma8%
Jacen Russell-Rowe7%
Dayann Methalie3%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.3%
Rasmus Nicolaisen3%
Djibril Sidibé0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Mark McKenzie0%
Abu Francis0%
Warren Kamanzi0%
Mario Sauer0%
Guillaume Restes0%
Rafik Messali0%
Julian Vignolo0%
Ilyas Azizi0%
Seny Koumbassa0%
Alexis Vossah0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (37)
€176m
TOU (24)
€115m
AUX (29)
€84m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
SOC (20)
€7m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
VAL (21)
€4m
CHA (5)
€1m
Chateauroux's squad is €114m less valuable than Toulouse's (€1m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (13)
€59m
TOU (7)
€30m
AUX (11)
€23m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
CF (5)
€2m
CAE (8)
€2m
VAL (8)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
CHA (1)
€0m
Chateauroux's attack is €30m less valuable than Toulouse's (€0m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (7)
€54m
TOU (7)
€39m
AUX (5)
€28m
LH (5)
€23m
ET (6)
€11m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
VAL (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
CHA (2)
€0m
Chateauroux's midfield is €39m less valuable than Toulouse's (€0m vs €39m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (17)
€62m
TOU (10)
€46m
AUX (13)
€33m
LH (10)
€23m
ET (10)
€17m
CF (12)
€10m
ROD (10)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
GRE (10)
€4m
AMI (8)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
VAL (10)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
CHA (2)
€0m
Chateauroux's defence is €46m less valuable than Toulouse's (€0m vs €46m).
France: Ligue 2 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Estac Troyes
Clermont Foot
Grenoble
Paris FC
Auxerre
Sochaux
Nancy
Guingamp
Amiens
Valenciennes
Le Havre
Ajaccio
PAU
Rodez
Dunkerque
Caen
Niort