The match between Crawley Town and Bristol Rovers is a tight affair, with the model favouring a Crawley victory as the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals sits at 2.5, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Crawley’s home form shows they score 0.79 goals and concede 1.21 against teams of similar strength, while Bristol Rovers on the road average 1.23 scored and 1.15 conceded to comparable opposition. The probabilities for the match result are 37% for a home win, 30% for a draw and 33% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7% with a 6% edge) and Under 5.5 (96.0% with a 4% edge). Both sides have recently come off wins, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to an evenly matched contest.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as Crawley Town failed to convert their recent win streak into a victory, losing 0-2 to Bristol Rovers. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was predicted with a 37% chance, but the model was wrong. The final result was an Away win. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.7%, and Under 5.5 hit at 96.0%. The match saw Bristol Rovers extend their two-game winning run while Crawley’s recent form dipped after a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crawley Town win✗ Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.18
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.42
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.57
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Bristol Rvs win✓ Hit
33.2%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.13
Edge
-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.19
Dafabet
2.18
BetVictor
2.15
Betfair
2.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Crawley Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.20
0.79
1.21
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
1.26
0.79
1.21
0.62
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.23
1.88
1.19
1.29
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.59
1.17
1.88
1.19
1.23
1.15
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.23-4.1%
Under 1.5
28.1%
@ 3.87+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.07
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.84
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.78-7.9%
Under 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.99+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.96
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Betfair
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
@ 2.85-9.0%
Under 3.5
76.5%
@ 1.38+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Pinnacle
2.96
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Under
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
@ 1.62-5.5%
No
48.5%
@ 2.16+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.62
No
1xBet
2.21
BetVictor
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.34+7.1%
0-0
9.8%@ 10.78+5.6%
1-0
9.5%@ 10.07+5.1%
0-1
8.8%@ 7.97+3.2%
2-1
8.2%@ 10.38+3.9%
1-2
7.7%@ 8.17+2.2%
2-0
6.9%@ 16.03+4.1%
0-2 ✓
6.1%@ 10.22+1.7%
Crawley Town goals ↓
Bristol Rvs goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.8%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.5%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.9%
8.2%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Crawley Town goals (down), columns = Bristol Rvs goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Crawley Town is 0.48 points worse than Bristol Rvs in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Crawley Town is 0.26 goals worse than Bristol Rvs in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Crawley Town is 0.07 goals worse than Bristol Rvs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Crawley Town
For 3.1 · Against 7.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol Rvs
For 4.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crawley Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.1
12.3
11.9
4.4
4.2
4.5
25.3
25.4
25.1
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
-
14.0
3.5
-
3.5
21.0
-
21.0
vs Similar (46)
12.1
12.3
12.0
4.3
4.2
4.3
25.6
25.4
25.7
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
-
8.5
7.5
-
7.5
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
78%
78%
77%
62%
61%
63%
73%
83%
65%
% under line
22%
22%
23%
38%
39%
37%
27%
17%
35%
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.5
9.3
4.4
4.5
4.3
23.9
23.2
24.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
9.3
9.5
9.2
4.4
4.5
4.4
24.0
23.2
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
19.0
-
19.0
% over line
42%
48%
35%
68%
72%
64%
69%
64%
74%
% under line
58%
52%
65%
32%
28%
36%
31%
36%
26%
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.2%
@ 1.70+4.8%
Under 9.5
40.8%
@ 2.03-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Under
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Crawley Town or Draw✗ Miss
66.8%
Avg Implied 55.9% · @ 1.66
Edge
+10.9%
37%
30%
33%
covers Crawley Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.70
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Crawley Town or Bristol Rvs✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.9%
37%
30%
33%
covers Crawley Town + Bristol Rvs
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Bristol Rvs✓ Hit
63.0%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.31
Edge
-8.0%
37%
30%
33%
covers Draw + Bristol Rvs
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.0%
@ 1.33+2.1%
Under
28.0%
@ 3.08-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.35
Superbet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Crawley Town over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.61+0.7%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.45-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Crawley Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 6.47-0.7%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Crawley Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 15.50-2.1%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.7%
@ 1.20-8.1%
Under
30.3%
@ 4.19+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.23
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.5%
@ 2.00-13.2%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.75+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 4.17-10.3%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.19+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.38
BetVictor
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bristol Rvs over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 9.70-6.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.04+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Crawley Town, so a minus line means Crawley Town give that many goals of a start and Bristol Rvs receive them. At -1, Crawley Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Crawley Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Crawley Town)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Crawley Town -2
5.8%
@ 16.00+0.1%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 9.57+1.5%
Bristol Rvs +2
83.1%
@ 1.08-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.20
Away
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Crawley Town)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Crawley Town -1
16.9%
@ 6.92+3.9%
Draw -1
20.1%
@ 4.97+2.0%
Bristol Rvs +1
63.0%
@ 1.31-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.65
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Handicap +1 (Crawley Town)Actual: Bristol Rvs
Crawley Town +1
66.8%
@ 1.68+13.2%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 3.87-4.4%
Bristol Rvs -1
14.5%
@ 3.85-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.72
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.70
Away
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Handicap +2 (Crawley Town)Actual: Draw
Crawley Town +2
85.5%
@ 1.21+11.2%
Draw +2
9.8%
@ 5.97-5.3%
Bristol Rvs -2
4.7%
@ 8.43-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Draw
Marathonbet
6.55
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Away
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Crawley Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.43
0.21
0.43
0.25
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.19
0.48
0.21
0.43
0.15
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.81
0.56
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.62
0.81
0.56
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.8%
@ 1.34-2.5%
Under 0.5
33.2%
@ 3.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.24
William Hil
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
29.6%
@ 2.58-6.3%
Under 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.45+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.55
Under
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betfair
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 6.43-4.2%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.08+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.5%
@ 2.19-1.0%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.61+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.17
1xBet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 7.32-1.8%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 20.50-3.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 1.85-6.0%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.86+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.1%
@ 5.38-4.2%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.12+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 14.75-4.8%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Crawley Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.57
0.79
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.78
0.57
0.79
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol Rvs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.06
0.62
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.55
1.06
0.62
0.92
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.2%
@ 1.20-1.4%
Under 0.5
23.8%
@ 4.14+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.4%
@ 1.96-8.1%
Under 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.77+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 4.04-6.8%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.21+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.1%
@ 1.84+0.7%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.87-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.80
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 5.22-3.5%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.12+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 15.17-3.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.3%
@ 1.60-5.7%
Under
47.7%
@ 2.20+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 3.83-8.0%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.22+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 9.50-6.6%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.6%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.5%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+11.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.08
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.5%
1.38
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.16
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.32
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.23
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
1.47
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.45
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betfair
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
-2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Crawley Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Orsi25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
Gianmarco Di Biase25%
L. Watson20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jude Arthurs60%
L. Watson40%
Klaudio Krasniqi40%
Charlie Barker40%
J. Russell40%
Priestley Farquharson25%
Pemi Aderoju25%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Osman Kamara0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
L. Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Watson20%
Jude Arthurs20%
Priestley Farquharson0%
D. Orsi0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
J. Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Bristol Rvs
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom James67%
Bobby Kamwa50%
Ellis Harrison33%
B. Purrington25%
F. Cavegn25%
R. Smallwood0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Tommy Leigh0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom James67%
Tommy Leigh50%
R. Smallwood25%
Kofi Balmer25%
C. Mola25%
Bobby Kamwa25%
Riley Harbottle25%
Shaqai Forde25%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Brad Young0%
F. Cavegn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom James33%
Kofi Balmer25%
Brad Young25%
Tommy Leigh25%
R. Smallwood0%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
C. Mola0%
Bobby Kamwa0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
F. Cavegn0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bobby Kamwa50%
Tommy Leigh50%
F. Cavegn50%
Ellis Harrison33%
Shaqai Forde25%
Tom James0%
R. Smallwood0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Crawley Town's squad is €2m less valuable than Bristol Rvs's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Crawley Town and Bristol Rvs have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Crawley Town and Bristol Rvs have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Crawley Town's defence is €2m less valuable than Bristol Rvs's (€1m vs €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale