Derby's recent form has been a storyline, with the team experiencing two consecutive defeats after a win against Charlton. They now face Cardiff, who are coming off a 4-5 loss to Mansfield. Despite this, Derby is still favored to win at home, with a 46% chance of taking all three points.
The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 28% chance of a Cardiff victory and a 26% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability. Derby's home form against similar opponents has seen them score an average of 1.45 goals and concede 0.91. Cardiff, meanwhile, has scored an average of 2 goals and conceded 1.46 when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.3% probability. This selection holds a 9% edge, indicating a potential advantage. The home win probability stands at 46%, with a 26% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of an away win. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals (80.3%) and Home win (46%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Derby, failed to deliver as the match ended 2-2, a draw that keeps both sides level on form after recent draws. The model had picked a home win with a 45 % probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, confirming the upset. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98.9 %; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8 %; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9 %; Under 6.5 hit at 96.9 %; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.0 %; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.0 %; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.4 %; and Away under 1.5 HT goals missed at 92.5 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and no other teams or scores were mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Derby win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.98
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Dafabet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Draw✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.45
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.62
Dafabet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Cardiff win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.68
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.00
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.27
1.33
1.07
1.60
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
2.33
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
1.08
1.42
0.75
1.57
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.20
1.81
0.94
2.14
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.39
1.38
0.75
1.70
1.90
vs Weaker (10)
2.90
0.70
2.67
0.83
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
@ 1.29+6.2%
Under 1.5
21.3%
@ 3.41-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 1.94+5.1%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.85-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.99
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.7%
@ 3.28+3.1%
Under 3.5
68.3%
@ 1.31-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
@ 1.75+4.8%
No
42.2%
@ 1.98-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.83
888Sport
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
No
Betfair
2.15
BetVictor
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.15+5.5%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.06+3.7%
1-0
8.2%@ 6.85+1.7%
2-0
7.5%@ 9.01+2.6%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.63+3.3%
0-0
7.0%@ 9.43+2.3%
0-1
6.1%@ 10.16+1.6%
2-2 ✓
5.7%@ 13.07+2.3%
Derby goals ↓
Cardiff goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.1%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
1
8.2%
13%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.3%
5.7%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.0%
5.0%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derby goals (down), columns = Cardiff goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Derby is 0.20 points better than Cardiff in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Derby is 0.23 goals better than Cardiff in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Derby is 0.08 goals better than Cardiff in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Derby
For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cardiff
For 8.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 12.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.9
9.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
22.6
22.5
22.7
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
11.2
8.0
5.0
4.5
5.7
24.1
22.2
26.7
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.6
10.1
3.9
4.0
3.9
22.3
22.5
22.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
48%
44%
54%
56%
52%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
46%
44%
48%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.6
3.4
3.3
3.4
20.6
20.4
20.9
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
14.0
13.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.0
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (31)
11.3
11.6
11.0
3.5
3.4
3.5
20.5
19.8
21.1
vs Weaker (16)
9.2
9.0
9.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
21.1
21.8
20.3
% over line
65%
68%
62%
46%
48%
44%
33%
36%
29%
% under line
35%
32%
38%
54%
52%
56%
67%
64%
71%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
2.83
Superbet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.70
Under
Superbet
1.87
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Derby or Draw✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.25
Edge
-2.8%
45%
27%
28%
covers Derby + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
Derby or Cardiff✗ Miss
73.7%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.5%
45%
27%
28%
covers Derby + Cardiff
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Cardiff✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied 52.1% · @ 1.79
Edge
+2.3%
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Cardiff
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Derby over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.2%
@ 1.19+3.1%
Under
18.8%
@ 4.25-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.43
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Derby over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.7%
@ 2.00+3.0%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.75-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
888Sport
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Derby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 4.21+1.4%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.20-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.40
Pinnacle
4.36
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Derby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 9.35-1.1%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Cardiff over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.43+6.8%
Under
28.1%
@ 2.66-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.78
BetVictor
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Betano
2.65
Cardiff over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.2%
@ 3.12+6.4%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.33-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Cardiff over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 7.99+1.9%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.06-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Cardiff over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 22.00-0.4%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Derby, so a minus line means Derby give that many goals of a start and Cardiff receive them. At -1, Derby must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Derby win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Derby)Actual: Cardiff
Derby -2
10.5%
@ 7.55-1.4%
Draw -2
14.2%
@ 5.47-2.2%
Cardiff +2
75.4%
@ 1.25+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Unibet
5.30
Away
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Handicap -1 (Derby)Actual: Cardiff
Derby -1
24.6%
@ 3.53-0.7%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 3.59-3.9%
Cardiff +1
54.3%
@ 1.80+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.50
Away
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Handicap +1 (Derby)Actual: Derby
Derby +1
72.0%
@ 1.24+0.0%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 5.23-1.4%
Cardiff -1
12.3%
@ 8.17+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
Unibet
5.00
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (Derby)Actual: Derby
Derby +2
87.7%
@ 1.05+0.1%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 11.33+0.1%
Cardiff -2
4.1%
@ 21.67-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.50
0.67
0.42
0.93
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.81
0.31
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.72
0.88
0.25
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.30
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.0%
@ 1.38+1.4%
Under 0.5
31.0%
@ 2.88-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.80+2.2%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.39-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.92
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Under
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.1%
@ 7.00-1.2%
Under 2.5
87.9%
@ 1.07+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.1%
@ 1.86+2.1%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.86-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 5.33+1.0%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.12-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 13.50-3.0%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Cardiff over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.8%
@ 2.44-2.2%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.50+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Cardiff over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.5%
@ 8.40-3.6%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Cardiff over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 32.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.58
0.75
0.33
0.64
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.63
1.00
0.62
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
1.90
0.40
1.67
0.50
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.6%
Under 1.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.0%
Under 2.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
92.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.07
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
888Sport
1.10
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.2%
1.19
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.7%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.5%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.4%
1.25
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.7%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.43
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
+6.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Cardiff
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yousef Salech50%
Jack Moylan33%
Cian Ashford33%
Rubin Colwill20%
Perry Ng17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Perry Ng33%
Alex Robertson33%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Jack Moylan17%
Isaak Davies17%
Joel Colwill17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Joel Bagan0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Yousef Salech0%
Cian Ashford0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cian Ashford33%
Ronan Kpakio25%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Yousef Salech17%
Perry Ng0%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Jack Moylan0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yousef Salech67%
Jack Moylan33%
Perry Ng17%
Cian Ashford17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Rubin Colwill0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Derby's squad is €27m more valuable than Cardiff's (€57m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Derby's attack is €9m more valuable than Cardiff's (€25m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Derby's midfield is €10m more valuable than Cardiff's (€14m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Derby's defence is €8m more valuable than Cardiff's (€18m vs €10m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Lincoln
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston