Saint Etienne are the clear favorites, with the model predicting an away win at 59 %. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for the visitors, carrying a 14.4 % chance. Dijon, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.4 goals scored and concedes 0.8, while Saint Etienne, on the road against a weaker opponent, scores 1.67 and concedes 0.83. The match is expected to be low-scoring, reflected in the high probabilities for the suggested picks: Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (98.9 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.9 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.6 % with a 4 % edge), and Home under 2.5 goals (96.5 % with a 7 % edge). The home win probability stands at 15 %, the draw at 26 %, and the away win at 59 %.
Results analysis
Saint Etienne’s four-game winning streak continued as the model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct with a 2-3 victory. The win extends their run, while Dijon came off a defeat. The model had given the away side a 61% chance, and the most likely total of two goals materialised, with the 0-1, 0-2 and 1-1 outcomes close behind. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (96.7%) and Under 5.5 (96.5%). The model’s selections delivered a flawless set of outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dijon win✗ Miss
13.7%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.84
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.10
Pinnacle
5.08
Dafabet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.70
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.86
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Saint Etienne win✓ Hit
60.6%
Avg Implied 55.5% · @ 1.68
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
10Bet
1.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dijon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.17
0.75
1.28
1.39
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.17
0.40
0.80
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (17)
1.59
1.06
1.71
0.71
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.87
2.41
0.65
1.15
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.13
1.38
0.88
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
2.67
0.60
3.33
0.44
1.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.28-3.5%
Under 1.5
30.1%
@ 3.51+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.70
Superbet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.89-7.3%
Under 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.89+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.8%
@ 3.23-7.2%
Under 3.5
78.2%
@ 1.32+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Pinnacle
3.29
BetVictor
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.6%
@ 1.82-9.1%
No
58.4%
@ 1.88+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
No
William Hil
1.95
BetVictor
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.6%@ 6.33+7.5%
0-2
13.3%@ 7.44+7.3%
1-1
11.8%@ 6.72+5.2%
0-0
10.3%@ 10.09+5.9%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.57+3.2%
0-3
7.5%@ 12.17+3.9%
1-0
5.3%@ 11.83+1.5%
1-3
5.2%@ 12.50+1.6%
Dijon goals ↓
Saint Etienne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
15%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1
5.3%
12%
9.1%
5.2%
2.2%
2
2.2%
3.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
3
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dijon goals (down), columns = Saint Etienne goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Dijon is 0.72 points worse than Saint Etienne in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Dijon is 0.75 goals worse than Saint Etienne in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Dijon is 0.47 goals worse than Saint Etienne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dijon
For 3.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 15.2 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Saint Etienne
For 5.7 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dijon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
11.5
7.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
23.4
21.8
24.8
vs Stronger (19)
8.5
10.5
6.5
0.6
0.4
0.8
28.0
24.0
32.0
vs Similar (30)
10.0
12.5
8.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
19.8
19.5
20.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
44%
75%
20%
4%
0%
7%
44%
25%
60%
% under line
56%
25%
80%
96%
100%
93%
56%
75%
40%
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.2
8.5
3.5
3.7
3.4
26.0
26.7
25.3
vs Stronger (3)
12.7
12.5
13.0
2.7
3.5
1.0
23.0
26.0
17.0
vs Similar (24)
9.2
10.2
8.2
3.8
3.7
3.8
26.3
26.8
25.8
vs Weaker (23)
9.1
9.7
8.4
3.4
3.7
3.1
26.1
26.7
25.4
% over line
40%
52%
26%
48%
58%
38%
83%
84%
83%
% under line
60%
48%
74%
52%
42%
62%
17%
16%
17%
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Saint Etienne
9.5
Metz
9.5
Grenoble
9.5
PAU
9.4
Montpellier
9.4
Nancy
9.4
Dijon
9.3
Clermont Foot
9.2
Nantes
9.2
Sochaux
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.6
Annecy
8.6
Boulogne
8.5
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.6
Nantes
4.4
Boulogne
4.4
PAU
4.4
Sochaux
4.2
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Reims
4.1
Rodez
4.1
Laval
4.0
Nancy
4.0
RED Star FC 93
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Metz
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Dijon
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Boulogne
28.3
Laval
28.3
Annecy
28.3
Guingamp
27.6
Dijon
27.6
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.4
Sochaux
26.1
Dunkerque
25.8
Grenoble
25.8
Rodez
25.7
PAU
25.6
Reims
24.6
Metz
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
37.4%
@ 2.35-1.8%
Under 9.5
62.6%
@ 1.51+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.6%
@ 1.63-7.3%
Under 3.5
51.4%
@ 2.07+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
Under
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dijon or Draw✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.12
Edge
-4.8%
14%
26%
61%
covers Dijon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.20
SBO
2.18
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Dijon or Saint Etienne✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
-1.2%
14%
26%
61%
covers Dijon + Saint Etienne
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.25
Draw or Saint Etienne✓ Hit
86.3%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.16
Edge
+6.0%
14%
26%
61%
covers Draw + Saint Etienne
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dijon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
49.7%
@ 1.56-10.0%
Under
50.3%
@ 2.30+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Dijon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
15.1%
@ 3.75-9.7%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.24+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.91
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Under
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Dijon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 10.20-5.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Dijon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 25.83-3.2%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
31.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.7%
@ 1.15+0.9%
Under
18.3%
@ 4.81-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.6%
@ 1.79-1.5%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.95+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.2%
@ 3.48-2.5%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.27+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.63
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Saint Etienne over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 7.40-3.3%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.06+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dijon, so a minus line means Dijon give that many goals of a start and Saint Etienne receive them. At -1, Dijon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dijon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dijon)Actual: Saint Etienne
Dijon -2
0.8%
@ 32.33-2.1%
Draw -2
3.2%
@ 14.33-3.4%
Saint Etienne +2
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Away
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Dijon)Actual: Saint Etienne
Dijon -1
3.9%
@ 9.93-5.0%
Draw -1
9.7%
@ 5.80-5.5%
Saint Etienne +1
86.3%
@ 1.17+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
10Bet
9.00
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Away
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Handicap +1 (Dijon)Actual: Draw
Dijon +1
39.4%
@ 2.10-3.2%
Draw +1
25.6%
@ 3.47-0.1%
Saint Etienne -1
35.0%
@ 2.83+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.13
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
10Bet
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Handicap +2 (Dijon)Actual: Dijon
Dijon +2
65.0%
@ 1.37-0.7%
Draw +2
19.2%
@ 4.83+0.6%
Saint Etienne -2
15.7%
@ 5.71+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.55
Unibet
5.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dijon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.58
0.25
0.22
0.61
vs Stronger (12)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.71
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.41
1.00
0.29
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.24
0.29
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.33
0.38
0.38
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.33
2.00
0.22
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.36-2.2%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.93+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.13
Superbet
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.71-2.5%
Under 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.42+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
Pinnacle
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 6.76-4.1%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.70
Marathonbet
6.65
Under
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dijon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.7%
@ 2.70-1.6%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.41+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Superbet
2.67
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Dijon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 10.10-0.6%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.03+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Marathonbet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Dijon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 45.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 1.72-9.8%
Under
55.8%
@ 2.02+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.58-6.8%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.16+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.67-4.9%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dijon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.58
0.50
1.06
0.78
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.65
0.71
0.43
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saint Etienne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.18
0.35
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.27
1.33
0.22
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.23+0.9%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 3.83-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.10-3.3%
Under 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.68+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 4.47-4.6%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.18+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dijon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.7%
@ 2.23+1.3%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.58-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Dijon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 7.50-2.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Dijon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 21.83-2.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.5%
@ 1.50-10.5%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.44+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.48
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.7%
@ 3.34-7.9%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.28+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 8.40-5.8%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.90
1xBet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.6%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
86.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
86.3%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
84.9%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
83.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+7.9%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.2%
1.32
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.23
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.8%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.3%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.25
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.0%
1.29
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.5%
1.51
Superbet
1.51
-
-
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dijon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jordan Marié25%
Adel Lembezat25%
Samy Chouchane25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Yanis Barka0%
Júlio Tavares0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Paul Bellon0%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Brandon Ndezi0%
Alexis Ntamack0%
Ylan Aka0%
Tyris Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lenny Lacroix50%
Adel Lembezat25%
Paul Bellon25%
Brandon Ndezi25%
Tyris Dong25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Yanis Barka0%
Jordan Marié0%
Júlio Tavares0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Samy Chouchane0%
Alexis Ntamack0%
Ylan Aka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Júlio Tavares25%
Paul Bellon25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Yanis Barka0%
Jordan Marié0%
Adel Lembezat0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Samy Chouchane0%
Brandon Ndezi0%
Alexis Ntamack0%
Ylan Aka0%
Tyris Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexis Ntamack50%
Yanis Barka25%
Adel Lembezat25%
Samy Chouchane25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Jordan Marié0%
Júlio Tavares0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Paul Bellon0%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Brandon Ndezi0%
Ylan Aka0%
Tyris Dong0%
Saint Etienne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Irvin Cardona75%
Thierno Ballo75%
Jakob Breum67%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Áron Csongvai25%
Augustine Boakye25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakob Breum67%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Maxime Bernauer25%
Irvin Cardona0%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Thierno Ballo0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Augustine Boakye0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jakob Breum67%
Irvin Cardona50%
Thierno Ballo50%
Augustine Boakye50%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Áron Csongvai25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Ballo50%
Jakob Breum33%
Irvin Cardona25%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Joshua Duffus25%
Kevin Pedro25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Augustine Boakye0%
Adam Baallal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Dijon's squad is €88m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€5m vs €93m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Dijon's attack is €53m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€1m vs €54m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Dijon's midfield is €9m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€2m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Dijon's defence is €26m less valuable than Saint Etienne's (€2m vs €28m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Nantes