Dugopolje vs Karlovac 1919 Result & Analysis

Dugopolje are tipped to win, the model favouring a home victory with a 58% probability, while the draw sits at 24% and Karlovac 1919 at 17%. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% probability, and that is the only scoreline to be named. Dugopolje, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, have averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Karlovac 1919, on the road, have managed only 0.8 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%), Home +2 handicap (93.8%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.5%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.

The match ended in a 2-2 draw, an upset that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, on the wrong side of the result. The model had given the home side a 58% chance of victory, but the outcome was a draw. The suggested picks were all settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.0%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.7%, Home +2 handicap hit at 93.8%, and Under 5.5 hit at 93.3%. Both teams came into the game on a draw, with Dugopolje’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw” and Karlovac 1919’s also “coming off a draw.” The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely score of 1-1 in the model’s distribution, but the predicted 2-0 did not materialise.