This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
1.33
1.07
0.60
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.09
1.23
1.55
0.91
0.64
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.54+3.0%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.50-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
12.4%
0-0 ✓
11.3%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.7%
Estac Troyes goals ↓
Ajaccio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.0%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
12%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.0%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
6.8%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.7%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estac Troyes goals (down), columns = Ajaccio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lorient
2.14
Paris FC
2.08
Metz
1.86
Dunkerque
1.66
Annecy
1.58
Boulogne
1.50
Laval
1.50
Guingamp
1.49
Bastia
1.44
Estac Troyes
1.33
PAU
1.33
Grenoble
1.31
Amiens
1.28
Ajaccio
1.25
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Martigues
0.89
Caen
0.67
Estac Troyes is 0.08 points better than Ajaccio in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lorient
2.00
Metz
1.81
Paris FC
1.72
Guingamp
1.65
Rodez
1.58
Boulogne
1.50
Dunkerque
1.34
Laval
1.33
PAU
1.28
Grenoble
1.22
Bastia
1.22
Annecy
1.22
Amiens
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.14
Red Star
1.09
RED Star FC 93
1.09
Clermont Foot
0.95
Caen
0.94
Ajaccio
0.89
Martigues
0.81
Estac Troyes is 0.25 goals better than Ajaccio in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lorient
0.92
Paris FC
0.97
Estac Troyes
1.00
Metz
1.00
Bastia
1.03
Laval
1.08
Dunkerque
1.11
Annecy
1.19
Ajaccio
1.22
Grenoble
1.31
Clermont Foot
1.34
Guingamp
1.43
Amiens
1.44
Red Star
1.50
RED Star FC 93
1.50
PAU
1.53
Rodez
1.58
Martigues
1.61
Caen
1.69
Boulogne
2.00
Estac Troyes is 0.22 goals better than Ajaccio in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris FC
61%
Metz
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Lorient
56%
Guingamp
55%
Caen
54%
RED Star FC 93
52%
Bastia
52%
Clermont Foot
51%
Boulogne
50%
PAU
49%
Ajaccio
46%
Grenoble
45%
Estac Troyes
45%
Amiens
44%
Martigues
44%
Laval
44%
Annecy
43%
Rodez
43%
Estac Troyes is 1.3 percentage points worse than Ajaccio in terms of average possession (45% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estac Troyes
For 4.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajaccio
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 14.5 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.1
8.5
3.6
2.9
4.3
26.1
25.1
27.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.0
9.2
8.8
3.6
3.0
4.3
25.0
24.4
25.8
vs Weaker (13)
8.3
9.0
7.9
3.9
3.0
4.3
29.5
28.5
30.0
% over line
36%
36%
35%
56%
44%
68%
80%
73%
87%
% under line
64%
64%
65%
44%
56%
32%
20%
27%
13%
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.4
8.7
3.9
3.8
4.0
27.3
25.7
29.2
vs Stronger (12)
8.8
9.5
8.0
3.9
4.2
3.7
28.9
29.5
28.2
vs Similar (38)
8.5
8.1
8.9
3.9
3.6
4.2
26.8
24.5
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
32%
39%
56%
54%
58%
84%
81%
87%
% under line
65%
68%
61%
44%
46%
42%
16%
19%
13%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RED Star FC 93
10.5
Rodez
10.4
Red Star
10.3
Clermont Foot
10.1
Grenoble
10.0
Martigues
9.7
Laval
9.7
Caen
9.6
PAU
9.6
Amiens
9.5
Metz
9.4
Lorient
9.4
Guingamp
9.2
Paris FC
9.2
Annecy
9.2
Bastia
9.0
Estac Troyes
8.8
Dunkerque
8.7
Ajaccio
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.5
PAU
4.3
Laval
4.1
Dunkerque
4.1
Amiens
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.1
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
4.0
Martigues
4.0
Caen
4.0
Annecy
4.0
Ajaccio
4.0
Paris FC
3.8
Metz
3.8
Guingamp
3.7
Rodez
3.6
Red Star
3.4
Grenoble
3.4
RED Star FC 93
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Caen
28.3
Bastia
28.0
Ajaccio
27.3
Amiens
27.3
Annecy
27.2
Laval
27.1
Guingamp
26.8
Estac Troyes
26.6
Red Star
25.9
Dunkerque
25.7
Martigues
25.5
PAU
25.5
Metz
25.3
Paris FC
24.8
Lorient
24.7
Grenoble
24.4
Clermont Foot
24.2
RED Star FC 93
24.2
Rodez
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.7%
Under 9.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.1%
Under 3.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.6%
Under 21.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.33
0.50
0.44
0.71
0.21
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.38
0.42
0.42
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.45
0.64
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.94
0.38
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.57
0.92
0.50
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.41
1.09
0.27
0.18
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estac Troyes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nicolas de Préville33%
Renaud Ripart29%
Rafiki Saïd25%
Cyriaque Irié17%
Mouhamed Diop10%
Pape Ibnou Ba10%
Youssouf M'Changama8%
Kyliane Dong6%
Martin Adeline4%
Jaures Assoumou4%
Houboulang Mendes3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Philiponeau0%
Mehdi Tahrat0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Mounaim El Idrissy0%
Zacharie Boucher0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Ryan Fage0%
Joseph Nonge0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Michel Diaz0%
Abdoulaye Kanté0%
Ibrahim Traore0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Nonge50%
Ismaël Boura22%
Houboulang Mendes19%
Abdoulaye Kanté19%
Michel Diaz16%
Adrien Monfray14%
Cyriaque Irié11%
Paolo Gozzi11%
Alexandre Philiponeau10%
Mouhamed Diop10%
Pape Ibnou Ba10%
Mounaim El Idrissy9%
Rafiki Saïd8%
Renaud Ripart6%
Nicolas de Préville6%
Martin Adeline4%
Jaures Assoumou4%
Youssouf M'Changama3%
Mehdi Tahrat0%
Zacharie Boucher0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Ryan Fage0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Ibrahim Traore0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mathis Hamdi25%
Youssouf M'Changama14%
Ismaël Boura12%
Rafiki Saïd11%
Paolo Gozzi11%
Cyriaque Irié8%
Martin Adeline8%
Renaud Ripart6%
Nicolas de Préville6%
Mouhamed Diop3%
Abdoulaye Kanté3%
Michel Diaz3%
Alexandre Philiponeau0%
Houboulang Mendes0%
Mehdi Tahrat0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Mounaim El Idrissy0%
Zacharie Boucher0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Pape Ibnou Ba0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Ryan Fage0%
Joseph Nonge0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Jaures Assoumou0%
Ibrahim Traore0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafiki Saïd19%
Renaud Ripart18%
Mouhamed Diop13%
Nicolas de Préville11%
Youssouf M'Changama11%
Cyriaque Irié11%
Pape Ibnou Ba5%
Abdoulaye Kanté3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Philiponeau0%
Houboulang Mendes0%
Mehdi Tahrat0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Mounaim El Idrissy0%
Zacharie Boucher0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Ryan Fage0%
Martin Adeline0%
Joseph Nonge0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Jaures Assoumou0%
Michel Diaz0%
Ibrahim Traore0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Ajaccio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aboubakary Kanté25%
Ben Touré15%
Moussa Soumano15%
Yoann Touzghar11%
Christopher Ibayi11%
Axel Bamba10%
Everson Junior10%
Julien Anziani9%
Mickaël Barreto8%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli7%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Tony Strata4%
Valentin Jacob0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Clement Vidal0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stephen Quemper40%
Everson Junior29%
Thomas Mangani26%
Mickaël Barreto25%
Clement Vidal22%
Benjamin Santelli22%
Christopher Ibayi21%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli20%
Jesah Ayessa20%
Matthieu Huard18%
Ivane Chegra16%
Mohamed Youssouf15%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro14%
Axel Bamba13%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi13%
Julien Anziani12%
Ben Touré10%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Aboubakary Kanté0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mickaël Barreto17%
Valentin Jacob14%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Thomas Mangani5%
Christopher Ibayi5%
Matthieu Huard5%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Aboubakary Kanté4%
Julien Anziani3%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julien Anziani26%
Christopher Ibayi16%
Moussa Soumano11%
Aboubakary Kanté8%
Ben Touré5%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Benjamin Santelli0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 2 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Lorient
Paris FC
Metz
Dunkerque
Annecy
Guingamp
Laval
Bastia
PAU
Grenoble
Amiens
Rodez
RED Star FC 93
Clermont Foot
Martigues
Caen
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