PythiaFootballBETA
This match between Estoril and Famalicao in the Portugal: Primeira Liga is finely balanced, with Estoril struggling to find form at home, having drawn their last two matches against Famalicao. The away team, Famalicao, has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, with a strong recent form note.
Famalicao is the model's selection for a win, with a 39% chance, while Estoril has a 33% chance of a home win and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 26%.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Estoril has averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded at home, while Famalicao has averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded away against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls at 92.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 76% with a 4% edge, Under 3.5 goals at 71.9%, and Over 3.5 cards at 71.6%. Estoril has a 33% chance of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 39% chance of an away win.
Estoril's unbeaten run at home came to an end as they drew 1-1 with Famalicao, the latter's win extending their run of unbeaten away games. The actual result was a draw, defying the model's call of an away win, which had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model pick was incorrect, as the favourite, Estoril, failed to come through. The model's selection, an away win, ultimately did not materialize. The model's suggested picks included over 21.5 fouls, which hit with a probability of 92.4%, over 1.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 76%, under 3.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 71.9%, and over 3.5 cards, which missed with a probability of 71.6%.
Estoril| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.00 | 1.89 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.90 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
Famalicao| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.03 | 1.77 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 1.24 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.00 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.71 | 0.57 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Famalicao goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 14% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
EstorilFamalicaoEstoril| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 27.1 | 26.3 | 27.9 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 26.1 | 26.0 | 26.2 |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 27.2 | 25.7 | 28.5 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | - |
| % over line | 38% | 42% | 33% | 74% | 68% | 80% | 85% | 83% | 88% |
| % under line | 62% | 58% | 67% | 26% | 32% | 20% | 15% | 17% | 12% |
Famalicao| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 32.4 | 32.2 | 32.6 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 31.2 | 34.0 | 29.1 |
| vs Similar (24) | 10.2 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 33.0 | 32.2 | 33.8 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 32.4 | 30.9 | 34.0 |
| % over line | 56% | 57% | 56% | 70% | 78% | 63% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| % under line | 44% | 43% | 44% | 30% | 22% | 37% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Estoril| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.07 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.33 | 1.56 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Famalicao| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 1.12 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Estoril| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Famalicao| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.57 | 1.15 | 0.23 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | +4.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.9% | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | -0.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/12/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 01/12/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/04/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/12/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/01/23 | A | 1-0 |
Estoril| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
Famalicao| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Porto | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 11.0 | 75% | 1.7 | 33% | 22.5 | 75% | 467 | 214 | 105 | 148 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.2 | 0% | 4.2 | 50% | 24.0 | 50% | 414 | 146 | 91 | 176 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 3 |  Arouca | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8.5 | 25% | 4.8 | 50% | 19.0 | 25% | 28 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.5 | 100% | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 48% |
| 5 |  Benfica | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.3 | 100% | 357 | 172 | 77 | 108 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 7.7 | 0% | 4.3 | 67% | 24.7 | 100% | 29 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 7 |  Maritimo | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 7.0 | 0% | 4.5 | 50% | 26.2 | 75% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 |  Estrela | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.7 | 67% | 23.3 | 67% | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 32.0 | 100% | 165 | 41 | 56 | 68 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 63% |
| 10 |  Nacional | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 8.2 | 25% | 4.2 | 50% | 25.5 | 75% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 6.3 | 0% | 5.3 | 100% | 28.3 | 67% | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 12 |  Guimaraes | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 6.0 | 0% | 6.0 | 75% | 26.0 | 75% | 46 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 13 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 8.2 | 25% | 3.0 | 33% | 19.8 | 50% | 37 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 14 | Famalicao | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 28.2 | 100% | 57 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 15 |  Academico Viseu | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 7.2 | 25% | 4.5 | 75% | 28.8 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 |  Alverca | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 20.8 | 75% | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.2 | 25% | 25.5 | 100% | 42 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 53% |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 2.8 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 75% | 27.0 | 100% | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 41% |