Estoril is expected to win this match, with a predicted scoreline of 1-1 being the most likely outcome, though not the most probable scoreline, with a 13.6% chance. The expected total number of goals is 2.6. Estoril's home form is strong, with an average of 2 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against similar opponents. Rio Ave's away form is weaker, with 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a 43% probability of Estoril winning, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 29% probability of Rio Ave winning. The model suggests the following selections: Over 21.5 fouls (82.4%), Over 1.5 (74.7%), Under 3.5 (73.4%), Home or Draw (73%), and Home or Away (72.8%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise as Rio Ave secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had given the home side a 42 % chance of triumph, but the outcome proved otherwise. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals hit, with a 99.2 % probability, and the other high-confidence picks - Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.1 %), and Under 5.5 (93.8 %) - all proved correct. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and mentioned once. The match ended 0-2, confirming the away win and the accuracy of all the model’s selections except the predicted home victory.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Estoril win✗ Miss
42.0%
Avg Implied 46.9% · @ 2.00
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.07
SBO
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.47
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.64
Pinnacle
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Rio Ave win✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.61
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.85
Betano
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.73
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Estoril
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.67
1.80
1.67
1.40
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.75
2.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.57
1.82
1.55
1.70
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
0.93
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.67
0.33
2.67
0.00
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.42
1.08
1.42
1.25
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
@ 1.25-0.6%
Under 1.5
25.9%
@ 3.70+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.97
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.84-3.8%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.95+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Under
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
@ 3.03-4.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
@ 1.35+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.2%
@ 1.68-2.0%
No
46.8%
@ 2.07+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.71
888Sport
1.70
Bet365
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Unibet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.27+6.6%
1-0
9.6%@ 7.37+3.5%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.86+3.2%
0-0
8.8%@ 10.76+4.7%
2-0
7.7%@ 9.39+2.9%
0-1
7.5%@ 10.66+3.3%
1-2
7.2%@ 11.16+3.2%
2-2
5.1%@ 12.25+1.5%
Estoril goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.5%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.9%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estoril goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Estoril is 0.09 points better than Rio Ave in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Estoril is 0.56 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Estoril and Rio Ave are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Estoril is 5.7 percentage points better than Rio Ave in terms of average possession (53% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Estoril
For 4.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
For 4.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estoril
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.3
8.8
4.4
4.0
4.8
26.8
25.8
27.8
vs Stronger (14)
8.5
8.5
8.5
4.6
4.8
4.5
26.1
26.0
26.2
vs Similar (35)
9.2
9.7
8.8
4.4
3.6
5.2
27.1
25.7
28.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
46%
33%
74%
68%
80%
85%
83%
88%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
26%
32%
20%
15%
17%
12%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
10.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
27.0
26.0
28.2
vs Stronger (13)
10.9
10.6
11.4
4.1
4.5
3.4
23.4
22.8
24.4
vs Similar (36)
10.2
11.0
9.6
5.2
5.1
5.3
28.4
27.5
29.2
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
11.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
63%
72%
54%
62%
64%
60%
80%
72%
88%
% under line
37%
28%
46%
38%
36%
40%
20%
28%
12%
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.1
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Alverca
9.0
Estrela
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Santa Clara
8.9
Guimaraes
8.7
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.5
FC Porto
5.4
Guimaraes
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Sporting CP
5.3
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.1
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Nacional
27.2
Estoril
27.0
Rio Ave
27.0
Sporting CP
26.7
Arouca
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
24.8
SC Braga
24.3
Alverca
23.6
Maritimo
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.0%
@ 1.71-3.0%
Under 9.5
49.0%
@ 2.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.5%
@ 1.33+2.1%
Under 3.5
30.5%
@ 2.75-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Under
Superbet
2.75
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.0%
Under 21.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Estoril or Draw✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.9%
42%
29%
29%
covers Estoril + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Estoril or Rio Ave✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.7%
42%
29%
29%
covers Estoril + Rio Ave
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Rio Ave✓ Hit
54.2%
Avg Implied 52.7% · @ 1.78
Edge
+1.5%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Rio Ave
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Estoril over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.6%
@ 1.19+0.8%
Under
20.4%
@ 4.40-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Under
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.49
1xBet
4.45
Estoril over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 1.93-1.1%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.80+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Estoril over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 3.97-2.0%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.21+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.32
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Estoril over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 9.09-2.6%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Rio Ave over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.1%
@ 1.38+2.0%
Under
30.9%
@ 2.82-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
Rio Ave over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.8%
@ 2.89+0.6%
Under
67.2%
@ 1.38-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.91
10Bet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Rio Ave over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 7.31-1.3%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.07+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Rio Ave over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 19.06-1.9%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Estoril, so a minus line means Estoril give that many goals of a start and Rio Ave receive them. At -1, Estoril must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Estoril win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Estoril)Actual: Rio Ave
Estoril -2
10.0%
@ 7.42-2.1%
Draw -2
14.2%
@ 5.54-2.0%
Rio Ave +2
75.8%
@ 1.25+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Estoril)Actual: Rio Ave
Estoril -1
24.2%
@ 3.51-1.5%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.71-2.7%
Rio Ave +1
54.2%
@ 1.81+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.55
Away
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Handicap +1 (Estoril)Actual: Rio Ave
Estoril +1
73.0%
@ 1.25+1.2%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 5.31-1.3%
Rio Ave -1
11.3%
@ 7.97+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Unibet
5.10
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Estoril)Actual: Draw
Estoril +2
88.7%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Draw +2
7.8%
@ 11.00-0.6%
Rio Ave -2
3.6%
@ 20.33-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estoril
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.50
1.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.71
0.82
0.82
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.47
0.93
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.7%
@ 1.35+0.4%
Under 0.5
30.3%
@ 3.05-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Superbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.9%
@ 2.63-2.5%
Under 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.44+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 6.42-3.6%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.09+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Superbet
6.40
Under
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estoril over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.0%
@ 1.80+4.4%
Under
44.0%
@ 1.92-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Estoril over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.11-4.1%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.13+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.00
Betano
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Estoril over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 13.00-3.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.6%
@ 2.32-3.5%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.55+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 7.88-4.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 29.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estoril
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.07
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.86
1.00
0.73
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.47
0.73
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.79
0.58
0.67
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
Under 0.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.2%
Under 1.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.8%
Under 2.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estoril over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.13
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.3%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
888Sport
1.13
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.21
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.1%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.0%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.23
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.8%
1.27
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
1.38
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+6.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Estoril
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yanis Begraoui50%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Fernando Medrano0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
André Lacximicant0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ismael Sierra Arnal50%
Xeka33%
Ferro25%
Fernando Medrano25%
Ricard Sánchez25%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Yanis Begraoui0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
André Lacximicant0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fernando Medrano25%
Pedro Carvalho25%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
João Carvalho0%
Yanis Begraoui0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
André Lacximicant0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Carvalho25%
Yanis Begraoui25%
André Lacximicant25%
Ferro0%
Joel Robles0%
Rafik Guitane0%
Xeka0%
Antef Tsoungui0%
Fernando Medrano0%
Ricard Sánchez0%
Ismael Sierra Arnal0%
Pedro Carvalho0%
Fabrício Garcia0%
Tiago Brito0%
Rio Ave
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andreas Ndoj33%
Nelson Abbey33%
Georgios Liavas25%
Tamás Nikitscher25%
Dario Špikić0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Bezerra25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Estoril's squad is €5m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€42m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Estoril's attack is €16m more valuable than Rio Ave's (€24m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Estoril and Rio Ave have a similar midfield value (both €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Estoril's defence is €11m less valuable than Rio Ave's (€10m vs €21m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Casa Pia