This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.17
1.81
1.12
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.19
1.50
1.14
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.7%
1-0
9.4%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.2%
FC Lugano goals ↓
FC Basel 1893 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
8.9%
6.2%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.4%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.8%
8.2%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.8%
3.4%
2.1%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Lugano goals (down), columns = FC Basel 1893 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.06
Servette FC
1.61
FC Lugano
1.58
FC Luzern
1.39
FC Basel 1893
1.31
FC ST. Gallen
1.25
Grasshoppers
1.22
FC Zurich
1.22
FC Winterthur
0.89
FC Sion
0.82
FC Lugano is 0.28 points better than FC Basel 1893 in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.28
FC ST. Gallen
1.83
FC Lugano
1.64
Grasshoppers
1.56
FC Luzern
1.50
Servette FC
1.47
FC Basel 1893
1.42
FC Zurich
1.14
FC Sion
1.13
FC Winterthur
0.89
FC Lugano is 0.22 goals better than FC Basel 1893 in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
BSC Young Boys
0.83
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.00
Servette FC
1.28
FC Lugano
1.31
FC Basel 1893
1.39
FC ST. Gallen
1.44
FC Luzern
1.44
FC Zurich
1.53
Grasshoppers
1.78
FC Winterthur
1.83
FC Sion
2.08
FC Lugano is 0.08 goals better than FC Basel 1893 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
BSC Young Boys
57%
FC Lugano
54%
FC Basel 1893
54%
FC ST. Gallen
53%
Servette FC
50%
FC Luzern
49%
FC Zurich
48%
FC Sion
48%
Grasshoppers
46%
FC Winterthur
41%
FC Lugano is 0.1 percentage points better than FC Basel 1893 in terms of average possession (54% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Lugano
For 5.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 15.4 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Basel 1893
For 7.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
9.6
9.8
9.3
5.4
5.5
5.3
25.4
25.5
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.8
10.2
9.4
5.7
5.8
5.7
26.2
26.2
26.2
vs Weaker (5)
8.6
8.0
9.0
4.4
4.5
4.3
22.6
22.5
22.7
% over line
43%
36%
50%
91%
91%
92%
83%
82%
83%
% under line
57%
64%
50%
9%
9%
8%
17%
18%
17%
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
10.9
10.3
11.6
5.7
6.3
5.0
22.7
22.2
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
10.6
10.5
10.6
5.8
6.3
5.2
22.1
21.5
22.8
vs Weaker (7)
12.5
9.0
16.0
5.3
6.3
4.5
25.5
25.7
25.3
% over line
65%
72%
56%
86%
89%
82%
62%
50%
75%
% under line
35%
28%
44%
14%
11%
18%
38%
50%
25%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Grasshoppers
12.0
FC Luzern
11.8
FC Basel 1893
10.9
FC Sion
10.7
FC ST. Gallen
10.4
Servette FC
10.0
BSC Young Boys
9.6
FC Lugano
9.6
FC Zurich
9.5
FC Winterthur
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Basel 1893
5.9
FC ST. Gallen
5.8
FC Sion
5.8
FC Zurich
5.7
FC Winterthur
5.5
FC Lugano
5.4
FC Luzern
5.3
Servette FC
5.1
Grasshoppers
5.1
BSC Young Boys
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Lugano
25.4
BSC Young Boys
24.8
Grasshoppers
24.8
FC Zurich
24.7
FC Sion
24.2
FC ST. Gallen
23.7
FC Luzern
23.6
FC Winterthur
23.1
FC Basel 1893
22.7
Servette FC
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
71.6%
Under 9.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.1%
Under 3.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.6%
Under 21.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.73
0.82
0.67
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.67
0.78
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.88
0.56
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.74
0.78
0.64
0.73
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.94
0.56
0.89
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
52% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Basel 1893) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Basel 1893
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.94
0.56
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.62
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Basel 1893 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žan Celar45%
Ignacio Aliseda30%
Renato Steffen25%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura22%
Reto Ziegler18%
Jonathan Sabbatini8%
Ousmane Doumbia8%
Boris Babić7%
Uran Bislimi7%
Milton Valenzuela6%
Maren Haile-Selassie6%
Kreshnik Hajrizi5%
Hicham Mahou5%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud5%
Mattia Bottani4%
Allan Arigoni4%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Jhon Espinoza0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Roman Macek0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Amir Saipi0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Allan Arigoni43%
Kreshnik Hajrizi42%
Albian Hajdari42%
Renato Steffen36%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud29%
Milton Valenzuela28%
Hicham Mahou20%
Fabio Daprelà19%
Amir Saipi13%
Jhon Espinoza12%
Mickaël Facchinetti11%
Jonathan Sabbatini11%
Ousmane Doumbia11%
Boris Babić11%
Roman Macek10%
Uran Bislimi10%
Žan Celar10%
Reto Ziegler9%
Mattia Bottani7%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura6%
Maren Haile-Selassie6%
Lars Lukas Mai5%
Ignacio Aliseda0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Renato Steffen21%
Roman Macek21%
Adrian Durrer20%
Maren Haile-Selassie18%
Jhon Espinoza12%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura12%
Allan Arigoni11%
Hicham Mahou10%
Milton Valenzuela9%
Reto Ziegler9%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Žan Celar6%
Jonathan Sabbatini5%
Ousmane Doumbia5%
Mattia Bottani4%
Boris Babić4%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud0%
Amir Saipi0%
Kreshnik Hajrizi0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Žan Celar35%
Renato Steffen14%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura12%
Maren Haile-Selassie12%
Mattia Bottani11%
Ignacio Aliseda9%
Jonathan Sabbatini8%
Ousmane Doumbia8%
Boris Babić4%
Milton Valenzuela3%
Lars Lukas Mai0%
Mickaël Facchinetti0%
Jhon Espinoza0%
Fabio Daprelà0%
Roman Macek0%
Allan Arigoni0%
Sebastian Osigwe0%
Reto Ziegler0%
Mohamed Haj Mahmoud0%
Amir Saipi0%
Hicham Mahou0%
Kreshnik Hajrizi0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Chinwendu Johan Nkama0%
Albian Hajdari0%
FC Basel 1893
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andi Zeqiri34%
Zeki Amdouni33%
Darian Males17%
Bradley Fink15%
Jean-Kévin Augustin11%
Ádám Szalai10%
Dan Ndoye10%
Wouter Burger9%
Fabian Frei8%
Hugo Novoa Ramos7%
Andy Diouf6%
Michael Lang5%
Kasim Adams5%
Anton Kade4%
Arnau Comas4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Sergio López3%
Liam Millar2%
Marwin Hitz0%
Noah Katterbach0%
Taulant Xhaka0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Mamadou Kaly Sene0%
Andy Pelmard0%
Sayfallah Ltaief0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Hugo Vogel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hugo Vogel33%
Taulant Xhaka32%
Wouter Burger32%
Arnau Comas28%
Riccardo Calafiori26%
Jean-Kévin Augustin22%
Sergio López22%
Darian Males21%
Kasim Adams21%
Dan Ndoye18%
Michael Lang15%
Fabian Frei14%
Andy Pelmard13%
Andi Zeqiri13%
Sayfallah Ltaief12%
Marwin Hitz12%
Bradley Fink12%
Andy Diouf12%
Ádám Szalai10%
Liam Millar7%
Zeki Amdouni6%
Noah Katterbach0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Mamadou Kaly Sene0%
Hugo Novoa Ramos0%
Anton Kade0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darian Males26%
Michael Lang17%
Anton Kade13%
Mamadou Kaly Sene12%
Fabian Frei11%
Taulant Xhaka9%
Andy Diouf8%
Hugo Novoa Ramos7%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Zeki Amdouni6%
Dan Ndoye6%
Liam Millar5%
Arnau Comas4%
Andy Pelmard4%
Jean-Kévin Augustin4%
Sergio López3%
Kasim Adams2%
Marwin Hitz0%
Ádám Szalai0%
Noah Katterbach0%
Wouter Burger0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Andi Zeqiri0%
Bradley Fink0%
Sayfallah Ltaief0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Hugo Vogel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zeki Amdouni29%
Andi Zeqiri23%
Ádám Szalai20%
Dan Ndoye14%
Sayfallah Ltaief12%
Wouter Burger11%
Liam Millar7%
Darian Males7%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Bradley Fink3%
Fabian Frei3%
Kasim Adams2%
Andy Diouf2%
Marwin Hitz0%
Jean-Kévin Augustin0%
Michael Lang0%
Noah Katterbach0%
Taulant Xhaka0%
Mirko Salvi0%
Mamadou Kaly Sene0%
Andy Pelmard0%
Hugo Novoa Ramos0%
Arnau Comas0%
Sergio López0%
Anton Kade0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Hugo Vogel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FC Lugano's squad is €10m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€39m vs €49m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's attack is €8m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€8m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FW (7)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
FC Lugano's midfield is €10m less valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€7m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
FC Lugano's defence is €8m more valuable than FC Basel 1893's (€24m vs €16m).
Switzerland: Super League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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BSC Young Boys
Servette FC
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
Grasshoppers
FC Zurich
FC Winterthur
FC Sion
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy