This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.4%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
FC Midtjylland goals ↓
Aarhus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
6.5%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.3%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.1%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.8%
4.7%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Midtjylland goals (down), columns = Aarhus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
1.84
FC Nordsjaelland
1.72
FC Midtjylland
1.64
Aarhus
1.59
Viborg
1.55
Odense
1.44
Brondby
1.38
Silkeborg
1.28
Randers FC
1.28
Lyngby
0.88
AC Horsens
0.88
Aalborg
0.84
FC Midtjylland is 0.04 points better than Aarhus in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
1.91
FC Midtjylland
1.70
FC Nordsjaelland
1.56
Brondby
1.50
Odense
1.47
Silkeborg
1.38
Viborg
1.33
Aarhus
1.31
Randers FC
1.25
Aalborg
1.06
AC Horsens
1.03
Lyngby
0.94
FC Midtjylland is 0.38 goals better than Aarhus in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus
0.97
Viborg
1.09
FC Nordsjaelland
1.09
FC Copenhagen
1.09
FC Midtjylland
1.18
Aalborg
1.41
Randers FC
1.47
Silkeborg
1.53
Lyngby
1.53
Brondby
1.62
Odense
1.66
AC Horsens
1.81
FC Midtjylland is 0.21 goals worse than Aarhus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Silkeborg
56%
FC Copenhagen
56%
FC Nordsjaelland
54%
Brondby
51%
Odense
50%
FC Midtjylland
50%
Randers FC
49%
Viborg
49%
Aalborg
49%
Aarhus
48%
Lyngby
45%
AC Horsens
42%
FC Midtjylland is 2.0 percentage points better than Aarhus in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Midtjylland
For 7.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aarhus
For 5.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Midtjylland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
11.4
14.0
9.4
3.7
4.2
3.2
21.0
18.0
23.4
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
16.0
12.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
19.0
15.0
23.0
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
10.7
13.3
8.8
4.0
4.7
3.5
21.6
19.0
23.5
% over line
78%
100%
60%
44%
50%
40%
33%
25%
40%
% under line
22%
0%
40%
56%
50%
60%
67%
75%
60%
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (5)
10.8
8.3
14.5
2.8
2.7
3.0
21.6
21.3
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
12.0
9.5
14.5
2.8
2.5
3.0
21.8
21.5
22.0
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
21.0
21.0
-
% over line
40%
33%
50%
40%
33%
50%
40%
33%
50%
% under line
60%
67%
50%
60%
67%
50%
60%
67%
50%
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brondby
12.9
Aalborg
12.8
Silkeborg
12.2
FC Midtjylland
11.4
FC Copenhagen
10.9
Aarhus
10.8
Randers FC
10.8
AC Horsens
10.6
Viborg
10.3
FC Nordsjaelland
8.8
Odense
8.0
Lyngby
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Nordsjaelland
5.0
Aalborg
5.0
Brondby
5.0
FC Copenhagen
4.9
AC Horsens
4.8
Lyngby
4.3
Randers FC
4.2
Odense
3.8
FC Midtjylland
3.7
Viborg
3.4
Aarhus
2.8
Silkeborg
2.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Nordsjaelland
24.0
Odense
22.8
Aarhus
21.6
FC Midtjylland
21.0
Aalborg
20.4
Lyngby
19.8
AC Horsens
19.6
FC Copenhagen
19.0
Brondby
18.9
Viborg
18.4
Randers FC
16.2
Silkeborg
12.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
80.7%
Under 9.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
25.0%
Under 21.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Midtjylland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.00
0.50
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
0.00
0.33
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Midtjylland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.29
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
22% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Midtjylland) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Midtjylland over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Midtjylland over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 10.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Midtjylland
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emam Ashour33%
Gustav Isaksen32%
Anders Dreyer31%
Evander28%
Pione Sisto25%
Aral Şimşir18%
Kristoffer Olsson16%
Erik Sviatchenko12%
Sory Kaba12%
Frederik Heiselberg9%
Stefan Gartenmann7%
Juninho6%
Henrik Dalsgaard6%
Nicolas Dyhr5%
Paulinho5%
Emiliano Martínez3%
Oliver Sørensen3%
Edward Chilufya3%
Jonas Lössl0%
Charles0%
Joel Andersson0%
Mads Thychosen0%
Júnior Brumado0%
Astrit Selmani0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Armin Gigović0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Victor Lind0%
Victor Bak Jensen0%
Raphael Onyedika0%
Valdemar Andreasen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Onyedika56%
Erik Sviatchenko36%
Evander33%
Astrit Selmani25%
Victor Lind25%
Kristoffer Olsson23%
Juninho21%
Frederik Heiselberg18%
Mads Thychosen17%
Paulinho17%
Emam Ashour17%
Armin Gigović17%
Emiliano Martínez16%
Júnior Brumado15%
Henrik Dalsgaard14%
Charles12%
Joel Andersson12%
Sory Kaba12%
Stefan Gartenmann10%
Jonas Lössl9%
Gustav Isaksen9%
Nicolas Dyhr5%
Anders Dreyer4%
Oliver Sørensen3%
Pione Sisto0%
Edward Chilufya0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Aral Şimşir0%
Victor Bak Jensen0%
Valdemar Andreasen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aral Şimşir24%
Kristoffer Olsson19%
Evander17%
Sory Kaba16%
Gustav Isaksen14%
Joel Andersson12%
Anders Dreyer12%
Charles8%
Erik Sviatchenko8%
Juninho6%
Pione Sisto5%
Nicolas Dyhr5%
Paulinho5%
Stefan Gartenmann3%
Henrik Dalsgaard3%
Oliver Sørensen3%
Jonas Lössl0%
Mads Thychosen0%
Júnior Brumado0%
Emam Ashour0%
Astrit Selmani0%
Edward Chilufya0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Armin Gigović0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Victor Lind0%
Victor Bak Jensen0%
Raphael Onyedika0%
Frederik Heiselberg0%
Valdemar Andreasen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustav Isaksen39%
Emam Ashour33%
Evander28%
Anders Dreyer27%
Pione Sisto25%
Sory Kaba20%
Frederik Heiselberg18%
Raphael Onyedika11%
Edward Chilufya8%
Júnior Brumado8%
Kristoffer Olsson6%
Armin Gigović6%
Erik Sviatchenko4%
Stefan Gartenmann3%
Juninho3%
Henrik Dalsgaard3%
Jonas Lössl0%
Charles0%
Paulinho0%
Joel Andersson0%
Mads Thychosen0%
Astrit Selmani0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Elías Ólafsson0%
Nicolas Dyhr0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Victor Lind0%
Oliver Sørensen0%
Aral Şimşir0%
Victor Bak Jensen0%
Valdemar Andreasen0%
Aarhus
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrick Mortensen44%
Mikael Anderson19%
Mikkel Duelund17%
Sebastian Grønning17%
Jelle Duin13%
Yann Bisseck12%
Kevin Yakob12%
Peter Bjur9%
Mads Emil Madsen7%
Sigurd Haugen6%
Thomas Kristensen5%
Frederik Tingager3%
Sebastian Hausner0%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Nicolai Poulsen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Felix Beijmo0%
Anthony D'Alberto0%
Gift Links0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Eric Kahl0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Adam Daghim0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolai Poulsen36%
Adam Daghim33%
Felix Beijmo29%
Mikkel Duelund25%
Albert Grønbæk25%
Sebastian Hausner20%
Sebastian Grønning17%
Kevin Yakob17%
Mikael Anderson15%
Thomas Kristensen15%
Mads Emil Madsen15%
Sigurd Haugen13%
Tobias Mølgaard12%
Eric Kahl10%
Yann Bisseck9%
Peter Bjur9%
Frederik Brandhof8%
Anthony D'Alberto8%
Gift Links7%
Frederik Tingager7%
Jelle Duin7%
Patrick Mortensen6%
Jesper Hansen3%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Duelund17%
Felix Beijmo14%
Nicolai Poulsen11%
Kevin Yakob8%
Mads Emil Madsen7%
Gift Links7%
Frederik Tingager7%
Tobias Mølgaard6%
Frederik Brandhof4%
Mikael Anderson4%
Sigurd Haugen3%
Patrick Mortensen3%
Yann Bisseck3%
Sebastian Hausner0%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Sebastian Grønning0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Jelle Duin0%
Anthony D'Alberto0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Peter Bjur0%
Eric Kahl0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Adam Daghim0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastian Grønning33%
Mikael Anderson31%
Patrick Mortensen22%
Mads Emil Madsen7%
Gift Links7%
Sigurd Haugen6%
Eric Kahl3%
Mikkel Duelund0%
Sebastian Hausner0%
Frederik Tingager0%
Benjamin Hvidt0%
Tobias Mølgaard0%
Nicolai Poulsen0%
Jesper Hansen0%
Frederik Brandhof0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Felix Beijmo0%
Jelle Duin0%
Anthony D'Alberto0%
Kevin Yakob0%
Dawid Kurminowski0%
Peter Bjur0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Thomas Kristensen0%
Adam Daghim0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
FC Midtjylland's squad is €72m more valuable than Aarhus's (€108m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
FC Midtjylland's attack is €33m more valuable than Aarhus's (€47m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
AH (6)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
FC Midtjylland's midfield is €10m more valuable than Aarhus's (€24m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
RF (10)
€6m
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
FC Midtjylland's defence is €29m more valuable than Aarhus's (€37m vs €8m).
Denmark: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →