FC Porto is the clear favourite to win at home against Alverca, with a 65% chance of victory. The model rates them so highly due to their strong home form, where they average 2 goals scored and just 0.42 conceded against weaker opponents. Alverca, on the other hand, struggles when facing stronger teams, averaging just 0.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded away from home. The model predicts a home win, with a 2-0 scoreline being the most likely at 13.2%. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
FC Porto's home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 12%. The model's selection is the home win. The model also suggests over 21.5 fouls (82.4%), over 1.5 goals (75.3%), over 3.5 cards (75.0% with 13% edge), and under 3.5 (72.4% with 9% edge) as its selections.
Results analysis
FC Porto's win extends their 2-game winning run after defeating Alverca 2-0 at home. The model correctly predicted the home win, with a pre-match probability of 65%. The model's call was correct, as the actual result was indeed a home win.
The model's selection of over 21.5 fouls was correct, with a probability of 82.4%. The selection of under 3.5 goals also came in, with a pre-match probability of 77.3%. Over 3.5 cards was another correct selection, with a probability of 75%. Lastly, over 1.5 goals was also correct, with a pre-match probability of 70.8%.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
FC Porto winâ Hit
65.1%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.20
Edge
-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Dafabet
1.22
Drawâ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 14.6% · @ 6.46
Edge
+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.50
Pinnacle
6.94
Betano
6.70
Dafabet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.55
Alverca winâ Miss
11.1%
Avg Implied 7.0% · @ 13.43
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
16.00
1xBet
15.00
Betano
15.00
Dafabet
14.00
Unibet
14.00
✠2. Goal Analysis
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.70
1.88
0.44
1.43
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.84
0.68
2.15
0.46
1.50
0.92
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
1.14
1.29
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.83
0.50
3.50
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.32
1.40
1.10
1.22
1.56
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
@ 1.18-8.4%
Under 1.5
29.2%
@ 4.49+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.60
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.62-14.4%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 2.25+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
SBO
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Under
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.32
888Sport
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.26
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
@ 2.56-13.9%
Under 3.5
77.3%
@ 1.48+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.67
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.6%
@ 2.32-0.4%
No
60.4%
@ 1.55+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.45
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Unibet
2.33
BetVictor
2.30
No
1xBet
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%@ 6.42+8.0%
2-0 â
14.4%@ 5.35+6.1%
1-1
10.9%@ 11.23+6.9%
0-0
9.8%@ 14.29+6.7%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.87+3.9%
3-0
8.7%@ 6.37+1.7%
3-1
5.4%@ 10.80+1.3%
0-1
4.5%@ 24.59+2.7%
FC Porto goals ↓
Alverca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
4.5%
1.7%
0.3%
0.1%
1
15%
11%
3.1%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
8.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
8.7%
5.4%
1.7%
0.3%
0.1%
4
3.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Alverca goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
FC Porto is 1.44 points better than Alverca in terms of average points per game (2.59 vs 1.15).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
FC Porto is 0.91 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.03).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
FC Porto is 1.00 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.53 vs 1.53).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
FC Porto is 10.3 percentage points better than Alverca in terms of average possession (55% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
0.94
0.19
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.84
0.36
1.08
0.23
0.58
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.29
0.43
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.94
0.25
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.00
0.32
1.08
0.23
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.86
0.86
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.84
1.00
0.70
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alverca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
1.48
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
+13.9%
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.5%
1.47
Superbet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+15.0%
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.2%
1.33
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+4.4%
â Miss
Over 1.5
70.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
888Sport
1.18
-8.4%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
FC Porto's squad is €428m more valuable than Alverca's (€467m vs €39m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FC Porto's attack is €200m more valuable than Alverca's (€214m vs €15m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
FC Porto's midfield is €99m more valuable than Alverca's (€105m vs €6m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FC Porto's defence is €129m more valuable than Alverca's (€148m vs €18m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Estoril
Casa Pia