This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.70
2.44
0.75
1.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.80
0.50
1.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.28
0.68
2.71
0.71
1.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.99+0.9%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.83-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1 ✓
10.1%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
5.0%
FC Porto goals ↓
Benfica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
10%
8.9%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.0%
6.4%
5.0%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Benfica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
SC Braga
2.29
Sporting CP
2.18
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.56
Estrela
1.50
Chaves
1.35
Boavista
1.29
Famalicao
1.29
Casa Pia
1.21
Vizela
1.18
Rio Ave
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.09
Estoril
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Maritimo
0.81
Pacos Ferreira
0.68
Santa Clara
0.65
FC Porto is 0.06 points worse than Benfica in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 2.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.41
SC Braga
2.21
FC Porto
2.15
Sporting CP
2.09
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.26
Famalicao
1.15
Rio Ave
1.06
Arouca
1.06
Chaves
1.03
Vizela
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Maritimo
0.97
Estoril
0.97
GIL Vicente
0.94
Casa Pia
0.91
Pacos Ferreira
0.76
Santa Clara
0.76
Portimonense
0.74
FC Porto is 0.26 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 2.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Benfica
0.59
FC Porto
0.65
SC Braga
0.88
Sporting CP
0.94
Arouca
1.09
Vizela
1.12
Guimaraes
1.15
Chaves
1.18
Casa Pia
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Famalicao
1.38
Portimonense
1.41
Estoril
1.44
Estrela
1.50
Boavista
1.59
Santa Clara
1.71
Pacos Ferreira
1.82
Maritimo
1.83
FC Porto is 0.06 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 0.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto
For 6.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
For 5.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 9.1 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.7
8.9
5.4
5.2
5.5
28.3
26.2
30.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.7
7.8
9.8
29.2
26.5
32.0
vs Weaker (41)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.7
4.6
4.7
28.0
26.1
30.1
% over line
44%
57%
30%
68%
64%
72%
85%
81%
90%
% under line
56%
43%
70%
32%
36%
28%
15%
19%
10%
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.7
11.1
4.3
4.6
4.0
26.3
27.3
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
10.3
8.3
11.8
8.0
9.3
7.0
26.3
31.7
22.2
vs Weaker (43)
11.0
11.1
10.9
3.7
4.0
3.4
26.4
26.6
26.1
% over line
66%
62%
70%
54%
54%
54%
78%
86%
70%
% under line
34%
38%
30%
46%
46%
46%
22%
14%
30%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
15.0
Vizela
11.3
Chaves
11.1
Benfica
10.8
Pacos Ferreira
10.2
Portimonense
10.1
Guimaraes
10.1
Rio Ave
10.1
GIL Vicente
10.1
Estoril
10.0
Boavista
9.9
Santa Clara
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
FC Porto
9.6
Arouca
9.4
Maritimo
9.2
SC Braga
9.2
Sporting CP
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
6.6
Boavista
6.4
Famalicao
6.4
Maritimo
6.4
FC Porto
6.3
Sporting CP
6.3
Vizela
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Guimaraes
5.7
Santa Clara
5.7
Estoril
5.6
Portimonense
5.6
SC Braga
5.5
Benfica
5.2
Chaves
5.0
Estrela
5.0
Rio Ave
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
34.1
Santa Clara
31.7
Chaves
31.6
Pacos Ferreira
31.2
Arouca
31.0
Famalicao
30.9
Rio Ave
30.8
Guimaraes
30.4
Boavista
30.0
Estoril
29.9
Portimonense
29.3
Sporting CP
28.9
FC Porto
28.7
Vizela
27.9
SC Braga
27.1
Estrela
27.0
GIL Vicente
27.0
Benfica
26.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
84.1%
Under 3.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.3%
Under 21.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.17
0.30
1.64
0.09
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.25
0.38
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.16
0.28
1.36
0.36
0.91
0.18
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.67
0.60
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.71
1.25
0.75
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.35
1.82
0.55
0.92
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.37
1.19
0.38
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.12
0.40
1.36
0.36
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mehdi Taremi48%
Evanilson23%
Wenderson Galeno21%
Otávio15%
Iván Marcano14%
Mateus Uribe13%
Toni Martínez13%
Danny Namaso12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Pepê10%
Fábio Cardoso10%
João Mário4%
Zaidu Sanusi4%
Marko Grujić4%
Wendell3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Gabriel Veron0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iván Marcano32%
David Carmo29%
Otávio26%
Mateus Uribe26%
João Mário26%
Fábio Cardoso24%
Marko Grujić21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Pepe14%
Wilson Manafá14%
Bernardo Folha14%
Wendell12%
Pepê12%
Zaidu Sanusi12%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
André Franco11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Danny Namaso8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Evanilson3%
Diogo Costa2%
Bruno Costa0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Toni Martínez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Otávio21%
Mehdi Taremi20%
Evanilson19%
Pepê14%
João Mário13%
Bruno Costa11%
Stephen Eustáquio11%
Toni Martínez11%
Wenderson Galeno10%
Gabriel Veron10%
Danny Namaso8%
Wendell6%
Diogo Costa2%
Pepe0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Mateus Uribe0%
Marko Grujić0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Gonçalo Borges0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Taremi45%
Wenderson Galeno18%
Evanilson16%
Toni Martínez13%
Stephen Eustáquio8%
Gonçalo Borges7%
Gabriel Veron5%
Pepê5%
Danny Namaso4%
Marko Grujić4%
Otávio3%
Mateus Uribe3%
Diogo Costa0%
Pepe0%
Bruno Costa0%
Wilson Manafá0%
Iván Marcano0%
Wendell0%
Fábio Cardoso0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
João Mário0%
David Carmo0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Bernardo Folha0%
Benfica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonçalo Ramos41%
João Mário38%
Rafa Silva29%
Petar Musa22%
David Neres21%
Henrique Araújo20%
Alejandro Grimaldo15%
Mihailo Ristić14%
Enzo Fernández12%
Gilberto10%
António Silva10%
Fredrik Aursnes8%
Julian Draxler8%
Gonçalo Guedes7%
Felipe Morato7%
Diogo Gonçalves6%
João Neves5%
Nicolás Otamendi5%
Chiquinho3%
Alexander Bah3%
Julian Weigl0%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Florentino Luís0%
Roman Yaremchuk0%
Lucas Veríssimo0%
Rodrigo Pinho0%
Casper Tengstedt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Weigl33%
Nicolás Otamendi32%
Enzo Fernández23%
Felipe Morato20%
Rafa Silva19%
António Silva15%
João Mário15%
Florentino Luís15%
Gonçalo Ramos14%
Fredrik Aursnes13%
Alejandro Grimaldo11%
Gilberto10%
David Neres9%
Petar Musa8%
Gonçalo Guedes7%
Chiquinho5%
Alexander Bah5%
João Neves5%
Odysseas Vlachodimos4%
Julian Draxler0%
Roman Yaremchuk0%
Lucas Veríssimo0%
Diogo Gonçalves0%
Mihailo Ristić0%
Rodrigo Pinho0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Casper Tengstedt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Neres28%
Alejandro Grimaldo28%
João Mário26%
Roman Yaremchuk20%
Enzo Fernández19%
Rafa Silva14%
Mihailo Ristić14%
Alexander Bah13%
Gonçalo Ramos11%
Fredrik Aursnes11%
Gonçalo Guedes7%
Petar Musa6%
João Neves5%
Florentino Luís4%
Gilberto3%
Chiquinho3%
Nicolás Otamendi2%
Julian Weigl0%
Julian Draxler0%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Lucas Veríssimo0%
Diogo Gonçalves0%
Rodrigo Pinho0%
Felipe Morato0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Casper Tengstedt0%
António Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Ramos45%
Rafa Silva29%
Enzo Fernández19%
João Mário19%
David Neres14%
Petar Musa11%
Alejandro Grimaldo11%
Diogo Gonçalves6%
João Neves5%
Fredrik Aursnes3%
Nicolás Otamendi2%
Florentino Luís2%
Julian Weigl0%
Julian Draxler0%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gonçalo Guedes0%
Roman Yaremchuk0%
Lucas Veríssimo0%
Gilberto0%
Alexander Bah0%
Mihailo Ristić0%
Chiquinho0%
Rodrigo Pinho0%
Felipe Morato0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Casper Tengstedt0%
António Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
EST (22)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
FC Porto's squad is €110m more valuable than Benfica's (€467m vs €357m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
FC Porto's attack is €42m more valuable than Benfica's (€214m vs €172m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
FC Porto's midfield is €28m more valuable than Benfica's (€105m vs €77m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
FC Porto's defence is €40m more valuable than Benfica's (€148m vs €108m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →