The clash between FC Porto and Benfica is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 34%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 36%. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 27% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. FC Porto, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded per match. Benfica, on the road, averages 0.5 scored and 0.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (96.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (91.1%), and Under 4.5 (89.9%). The model’s selections reflect a high confidence in a low-scoring, tightly contested match.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FC Porto snatched a 1-0 win, extending their four-game winning streak at home. The pre-match favourite, Benfica, had been given a 36% chance of victory, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave Porto the actual result, contrary to the predicted away win. All of the model’s selections hit: Under 7.5 (99.6%) was correct, Under 6.5 (98.7%) matched, Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%) came through, Under 5.5 (96.2%) was right, Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%) succeeded, Over 19.5 fouls (96.1%) was correct, Over 21.5 fouls (91.1%) hit, and Under 4.5 (89.9%) also proved accurate. The match delivered a tighter contest than the model’s 2.4-goal expectation, with the most likely 2-goal outcome never materialising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Porto win✓ Hit
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Benfica win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.47
2.40
0.40
1.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.22
0.44
2.62
0.38
1.86
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.63
1.86
0.79
1.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (22)
2.14
0.73
2.20
0.90
2.08
0.58
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.6%
1-0 ✓
9.0%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.2%
FC Porto goals ↓
Benfica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
9.6%
6.8%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.0%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.2%
7.7%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.4%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Benfica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
3.00
Benfica
2.57
Rebordosa
2.40
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
Cinfães
2.25
Lusitânia
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Farense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Anadia
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
O Elvas
2.00
Santa Clara
2.00
Operário
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Brito
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Rio Ave
1.67
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Academica
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Alpendorada
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Estrela
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estoril
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Nacional
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
FC Porto is 1.07 points worse than Benfica in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Sporting CP
2.57
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Cinfães
2.50
Farense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
FC Porto
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Rio Ave
1.83
Lusitânia
1.75
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Estrela
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
O Elvas
1.40
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.29
Vila Meã
1.29
Portalegrense
1.29
Correlhã
1.29
Florgrade
1.29
Nazarenos
1.29
Vitória de Sernache
1.29
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.29
Valenciano
1.29
Castro Daire
1.29
Rebordelo
1.29
Espinho
1.29
Uniao Nogueirense
1.29
Naval 1893
1.29
Portimonense B
1.29
Ançã
1.29
Resende
1.29
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.29
Sourense
1.29
Silves
1.29
Vidago
1.29
Vila Caíz
1.29
Charneca Caparica
1.29
Oriental Lisboa
1.29
AD Fornos Algodres
1.29
Angrense
1.29
Celoricense
1.29
AD Portomosense
1.29
Alcochetense
1.29
Fayal
1.29
Gouveia
1.29
Samora Correir
1.29
Ribeira Brava
1.29
Aparecida GO
1.29
Mirandela
1.29
Estrela Calheta
1.29
SC Celoricense
1.29
Almodôvar
1.29
Mosteirense
1.29
Águias do Moradal
1.29
Urzelinense
1.29
Celeirós
1.29
Quarteirense
1.29
AR São Martinho
1.29
Carregal
1.29
Juventude Évora
1.29
Fazendense
1.29
Pontassolense
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Tirsense
1.14
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Tondela
1.00
Academica
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
FC Porto is 1.29 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 3.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Academica
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Brito
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Benfica
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
Santa Clara
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Academico Viseu
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Feirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Machico
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Alpendorada
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Arouca
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Anadia
1.67
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.82
Vila Meã
1.82
Portalegrense
1.82
Correlhã
1.82
Florgrade
1.82
Nazarenos
1.82
Vitória de Sernache
1.82
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.82
Valenciano
1.82
Castro Daire
1.82
Rebordelo
1.82
Espinho
1.82
Uniao Nogueirense
1.82
Naval 1893
1.82
Portimonense B
1.82
Ançã
1.82
Resende
1.82
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.82
Sourense
1.82
Silves
1.82
Vidago
1.82
Vila Caíz
1.82
Charneca Caparica
1.82
Oriental Lisboa
1.82
AD Fornos Algodres
1.82
Angrense
1.82
Celoricense
1.82
AD Portomosense
1.82
Alcochetense
1.82
Fayal
1.82
Gouveia
1.82
Samora Correir
1.82
Ribeira Brava
1.82
Aparecida GO
1.82
Mirandela
1.82
Estrela Calheta
1.82
SC Celoricense
1.82
Almodôvar
1.82
Mosteirense
1.82
Águias do Moradal
1.82
Urzelinense
1.82
Celeirós
1.82
Quarteirense
1.82
AR São Martinho
1.82
Carregal
1.82
Juventude Évora
1.82
Fazendense
1.82
Pontassolense
1.82
Amarante
2.00
Farense
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
FC Porto is 0.43 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto
For 5.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 7.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
For 5.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 16.1 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.2
8.6
5.7
5.5
5.8
26.7
26.4
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.1
7.0
7.5
24.2
25.0
22.0
vs Weaker (42)
8.6
8.5
8.7
5.4
5.1
5.6
27.2
26.9
27.4
% over line
33%
30%
36%
82%
83%
81%
79%
78%
80%
% under line
67%
70%
64%
18%
17%
19%
21%
22%
20%
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.3
4.6
4.0
5.2
25.7
25.5
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
8.2
8.0
8.5
5.7
5.8
5.7
26.6
28.5
24.2
vs Weaker (36)
10.2
10.9
9.6
4.1
3.1
5.0
25.3
23.9
26.6
% over line
39%
48%
30%
64%
56%
72%
78%
74%
83%
% under line
61%
52%
70%
36%
44%
28%
22%
26%
17%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
12.2
Portimonense
11.4
Vizela
10.9
Farense
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Academico Viseu
10.7
União de Leiria
10.7
Chaves
10.7
Famalicao
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Nacional
10.3
Oliveirense
10.3
Arouca
10.2
Felgueiras 1932
10.2
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Rio Ave
10.0
Torreense
9.7
Guimaraes
9.6
Benfica
9.6
Casa Pia
9.4
Tondela
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Sporting CP
9.3
Estrela
9.3
Feirense
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.2
Estoril
9.1
SC Braga
9.0
Leixoes
9.0
Pacos Ferreira
9.0
AVS
9.0
Maritimo
8.8
FC Porto
8.6
Mafra
8.5
Santa Clara
8.5
Moreirense
8.2
Alverca
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.5
Pacos Ferreira
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Vizela
6.0
Leixoes
6.0
Oliveirense
6.0
Torreense
5.8
FC Porto
5.8
Farense
5.8
Sporting CP
5.7
Maritimo
5.7
Famalicao
5.6
Casa Pia
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Feirense
5.6
Guimaraes
5.5
União de Leiria
5.5
Nacional
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
Arouca
5.4
Academico Viseu
5.3
Estrela
5.3
AVS
5.3
Penafiel
5.2
Rio Ave
5.2
GIL Vicente
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Tondela
5.0
Benfica
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.7
Estoril
4.5
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Mafra
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.9
Estrela
31.2
Moreirense
30.4
Santa Clara
30.2
Lusitânia Lourosa
29.5
Farense
29.4
Guimaraes
28.7
Estoril
28.6
Vilaverdense
28.5
Casa Pia
28.3
Rio Ave
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
GIL Vicente
28.2
Arouca
27.5
Nacional
27.4
AVS
27.4
FC Porto
26.9
Sporting CP
26.9
Benfica
25.5
SC Braga
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
20.5
Tondela
20.3
Pacos Ferreira
18.4
Academico Viseu
17.9
União de Leiria
17.8
Alverca
17.4
Oliveirense
17.4
Portimonense
15.8
Maritimo
15.7
Feirense
15.4
Felgueiras 1932
14.9
Mafra
14.9
Penafiel
14.3
Vizela
14.0
Chaves
13.0
Torreense
12.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.5%
Under 3.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.1%
Under 21.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Porto or Draw✓ Hit
63.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers FC Porto + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Porto or Benfica✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers FC Porto + Benfica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Benfica✗ Miss
66.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Benfica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Porto over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Porto, so a minus line means FC Porto give that many goals of a start and Benfica receive them. At -1, FC Porto must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Porto win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Porto)Actual: Benfica
FC Porto -2
4.8%
Draw -2
9.9%
Benfica +2
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Porto)Actual: Draw
FC Porto -1
14.6%
Draw -1
18.9%
Benfica +1
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Porto)Actual: FC Porto
FC Porto +1
63.5%
Draw +1
20.0%
Benfica -1
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Porto)Actual: FC Porto
FC Porto +2
83.5%
Draw +2
10.9%
Benfica -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.23
1.27
0.20
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.04
0.22
1.38
0.15
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
1.29
0.29
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.27
1.50
0.30
0.58
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.23
1.13
0.20
1.20
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.22
1.23
0.23
1.14
0.21
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.57
0.50
1.19
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.45
0.70
0.60
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
Torreense