Fiorentina, fresh from a 0-4 loss to AS Roma, will face Frosinone, who have won four of their last five games after a 0-1 defeat to Juventus. The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% probability. Fiorentina’s home form shows they average 0.67 goals scored and concede none against weaker opponents, while Frosinone’s away form is not detailed in the data. The suggested picks include an almost certain Under 7.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0% with a 3% edge), and Under 5.5 (96.8% with a 5% edge). Additional selections highlight Away under 3.5 goals (99.0% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (94.8% with a 4% edge), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.1% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
Frosinone’s 3-0 triumph stunned the pre-match favourite, Fiorentina, who had been tipped for a home win with a 43% probability. The model’s call was wrong, as the away side secured victory. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the upset. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Under 5.5, Away under 3.5 goals, Away under 2.5 2H goals, and Away under 2.5 HT goals all hit, with probabilities of 99.7%, 99.0%, 96.8%, 99.0%, 97.8%, and 99.2% respectively. However, Away under 1.5 HT goals and Away under 2.5 goals missed, at 94.9% and 94.8%. Fiorentina’s recent form, after two straight defeats, contrasted sharply with Frosinone’s winning streak, underscoring the unexpected nature of the result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fiorentina win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.68
Edge
-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Dafabet
1.70
Betfair
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.93
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.14
Marathonbet
4.05
Pinnacle
4.03
Dafabet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Frosinone win✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.92
Edge
+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.30
1xBet
5.11
Superbet
5.10
Pinnacle
5.07
10Bet
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fiorentina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.23
1.20
0.87
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.52
1.36
1.09
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Frosinone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.87
2.19
0.75
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.23
0.95
2.36
0.82
2.09
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.57
2.25
0.50
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.23-1.5%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 4.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Under
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Betano
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.77-5.0%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 2.07+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
SBO
1.81
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Under
1xBet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 2.85-5.9%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.41+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
@ 1.72-0.0%
No
45.8%
@ 2.04+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 7.10+7.1%
1-0
9.4%@ 7.25+3.1%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.55+3.1%
0-0
8.4%@ 12.06+4.6%
2-0
7.8%@ 8.01+2.2%
1-2
7.1%@ 14.14+3.9%
0-1
7.1%@ 13.32+3.6%
2-2
5.2%@ 13.96+2.0%
Fiorentina goals ↓
Frosinone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
7.1%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.4%
13%
7.1%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.1%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = Frosinone goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Fiorentina is 0.08 points better than Frosinone in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Fiorentina is 0.17 goals better than Frosinone in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Fiorentina is 0.30 goals better than Frosinone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 3.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Frosinone
For 6.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.4
8.2
4.7
5.0
4.3
28.3
28.9
27.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
28.8
28.3
29.3
vs Similar (32)
8.4
9.4
7.3
5.2
5.6
4.7
27.7
28.2
27.2
vs Weaker (12)
9.4
8.8
10.0
3.8
4.0
3.7
29.5
31.2
27.8
% over line
44%
52%
36%
74%
76%
72%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
56%
48%
64%
26%
24%
28%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Frosinone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
30.2
28.8
31.5
vs Stronger (1)
15.0
15.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
33.0
33.0
-
vs Similar (38)
9.9
10.2
9.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
30.0
28.5
31.2
vs Weaker (11)
10.6
11.1
9.8
4.6
4.9
4.2
30.5
29.1
33.0
% over line
58%
56%
60%
70%
72%
68%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
30%
28%
32%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Venezia
9.0
Fiorentina
8.8
Cagliari
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.0%
@ 1.94-7.2%
Under 9.5
59.0%
@ 1.80+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Unibet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.57+4.3%
Under 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.29-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Under
Superbet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.4%
Under 21.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fiorentina or Draw✗ Miss
80.3%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
-0.4%
43%
28%
28%
covers Fiorentina + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Fiorentina or Frosinone✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 76.5% · @ 1.23
Edge
-5.1%
43%
28%
28%
covers Fiorentina + Frosinone
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Draw or Frosinone✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.20
Edge
+5.5%
43%
28%
28%
covers Draw + Frosinone
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.29
Unibet
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.6%
@ 1.12-5.7%
Under
22.4%
@ 5.56+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Fiorentina over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 1.68-11.6%
Under
55.9%
@ 2.11+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Fiorentina over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 3.18-10.4%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.32+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Fiorentina over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 6.73-7.3%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.08+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Frosinone over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.6%
@ 1.49-6.0%
Under
43.4%
@ 2.49+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.55
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Frosinone over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
20.3%
@ 3.41-7.1%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.29+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.70
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Frosinone over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
5.2%
@ 9.27-4.8%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.70
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Frosinone over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 21.33-3.5%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fiorentina, so a minus line means Fiorentina give that many goals of a start and Frosinone receive them. At -1, Fiorentina must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fiorentina win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fiorentina)Actual: Frosinone
Fiorentina -2
10.9%
@ 5.34-6.0%
Draw -2
16.2%
@ 4.72-2.9%
Frosinone +2
72.9%
@ 1.41+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Away
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap -1 (Fiorentina)Actual: Frosinone
Fiorentina -1
27.1%
@ 2.70-6.5%
Draw -1
24.5%
@ 3.56-0.9%
Frosinone +1
48.4%
@ 2.20+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.73
Superbet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Away
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Unibet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Handicap +1 (Fiorentina)Actual: Frosinone
Fiorentina +1
80.3%
@ 1.16+3.5%
Draw +1
13.1%
@ 6.05-1.6%
Frosinone -1
6.6%
@ 10.44-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
3.98
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Handicap +2 (Fiorentina)Actual: Frosinone
Fiorentina +2
93.4%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Draw +2
5.0%
@ 15.50-1.1%
Frosinone -2
1.6%
@ 37.50-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.57
0.55
0.45
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Frosinone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.75
0.31
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.36
0.82
0.18
1.00
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.33+1.8%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.17-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.35
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.56-2.5%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.48+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Under
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 6.21-1.5%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Under
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
61.0%
@ 1.66+4.8%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.13-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.63
Under
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.7%
@ 4.20+9.7%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.19-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Unibet
4.30
Betano
4.25
10Bet
3.95
Under
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 10.38+6.9%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.03-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Frosinone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.4%
@ 2.62-5.1%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.44+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.57
Superbet
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Frosinone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.1%
@ 9.66-4.5%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Frosinone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 26.50-2.8%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.73
0.47
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.95
0.82
0.64
0.80
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Frosinone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.44
0.44
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.32
0.59
1.55
0.64
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.9%
@ 1.20+4.8%
Under 0.5
17.1%
@ 4.27-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.5%
@ 1.96-0.5%
Under 1.5
52.5%
@ 1.80+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Under
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
William Hil
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.2%
@ 4.01-1.1%
Under 2.5
77.8%
@ 1.22+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
69.6%
@ 1.45+5.5%
Under
30.4%
@ 2.59-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.5%
@ 3.11+8.7%
Under
61.5%
@ 1.32-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 7.63-0.7%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Frosinone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.7%
@ 2.11-1.3%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.66+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.64
Frosinone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 6.78-5.4%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.07+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
6.70
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Frosinone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 17.88-3.2%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-6.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.20
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
1.32
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
1.27
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
80.3%
1.17
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-0.4%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
80.3%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
79.7%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-5.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.2%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.9%
1.41
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.8%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.41
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.5%
1.32
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
-
-
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.3%
1.23
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.8%
1.48
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
+8.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Frosinone
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Raimondo67%
A. Terzić33%
G. Kvernadze33%
Gabriele Bracaglia33%
Matteo Cichella33%
Romano Schmid0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giacomo Calò0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
P. Masini0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
G. Calvani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Romano Schmid67%
G. Calvani67%
A. Raimondo33%
Gabriele Bracaglia33%
P. Masini25%
A. Terzić0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giacomo Calò0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
G. Kvernadze0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
Matteo Cichella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. Kvernadze67%
Giacomo Calò33%
A. Raimondo33%
Gabriele Bracaglia33%
A. Terzić0%
Romano Schmid0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
P. Masini0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
G. Calvani0%
Matteo Cichella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Raimondo33%
Matteo Cichella33%
A. Terzić0%
Romano Schmid0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giacomo Calò0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
P. Masini0%
G. Kvernadze0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
G. Calvani0%
Gabriele Bracaglia0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Fiorentina's squad is €246m more valuable than Frosinone's (€330m vs €84m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Fiorentina's attack is €91m more valuable than Frosinone's (€125m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Fiorentina's midfield is €80m more valuable than Frosinone's (€107m vs €27m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Fiorentina's defence is €74m more valuable than Frosinone's (€98m vs €24m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia