This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.67
0.71
1.64
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.48
1.52
0.55
1.45
0.42
1.58
vs Similar (7)
1.71
2.14
1.33
2.33
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.92+2.0%
Under 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.89-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
5.8%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
Guimaraes goals ↓
Boavista goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.5%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.9%
12%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.7%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.4%
5.6%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guimaraes goals (down), columns = Boavista goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.09
SC Braga
1.94
Santa Clara
1.68
Guimaraes
1.59
Famalicao
1.38
Estoril
1.35
Casa Pia
1.32
Moreirense
1.18
Rio Ave
1.12
Arouca
1.12
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
1.00
AVS
0.86
Estrela
0.85
Farense
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Vizela
0.50
Guimaraes is 0.88 points better than Boavista in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.59
Benfica
2.47
FC Porto
1.91
SC Braga
1.62
Estoril
1.41
Guimaraes
1.38
Famalicao
1.29
Moreirense
1.24
Casa Pia
1.15
Rio Ave
1.15
Santa Clara
1.06
Arouca
1.03
Vizela
1.00
GIL Vicente
1.00
Nacional
0.94
AVS
0.83
Farense
0.74
Estrela
0.71
Boavista
0.71
Guimaraes is 0.68 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.79
Benfica
0.82
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
0.88
Santa Clara
0.94
Guimaraes
1.09
Famalicao
1.15
Casa Pia
1.29
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.44
Moreirense
1.47
Estrela
1.47
Nacional
1.47
Estoril
1.56
Rio Ave
1.62
AVS
1.72
Boavista
1.74
Vizela
2.50
Guimaraes is 0.65 goals better than Boavista in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
71%
FC Porto
62%
Sporting CP
60%
Benfica
58%
SC Braga
57%
Guimaraes
57%
Arouca
53%
GIL Vicente
51%
Famalicao
50%
Estoril
49%
Rio Ave
48%
Moreirense
47%
Nacional
47%
Casa Pia
47%
Estrela
45%
Santa Clara
44%
AVS
43%
Farense
41%
Boavista
40%
Guimaraes is 17.1 percentage points better than Boavista in terms of average possession (57% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Guimaraes
For 6.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 14.5 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
For 3.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.1
12.1
5.5
5.4
5.6
26.8
26.3
27.5
vs Stronger (10)
11.4
13.0
9.8
6.2
7.0
5.4
25.9
27.0
24.8
vs Similar (16)
12.1
12.1
12.0
4.5
5.0
3.9
28.7
27.9
30.2
vs Weaker (24)
11.5
9.6
13.0
5.9
5.1
6.5
26.4
24.9
27.6
% over line
74%
70%
78%
74%
76%
72%
84%
83%
86%
% under line
26%
30%
22%
26%
24%
28%
16%
17%
14%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.3
4.7
4.9
4.5
27.9
28.1
27.7
vs Stronger (38)
9.2
9.3
9.1
5.0
5.2
4.8
28.1
28.7
27.4
vs Similar (12)
10.9
12.2
9.8
3.7
3.5
3.8
27.4
26.0
28.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
55%
38%
68%
67%
69%
88%
90%
86%
% under line
54%
45%
62%
32%
33%
31%
12%
10%
14%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.8
Nacional
11.6
Guimaraes
11.4
AVS
11.0
Rio Ave
10.8
Benfica
10.7
Estrela
10.6
FC Porto
10.4
Estoril
10.3
SC Braga
10.2
Casa Pia
10.0
Famalicao
10.0
Vizela
9.9
Arouca
9.7
Moreirense
9.3
Boavista
9.2
GIL Vicente
8.9
Sporting CP
8.7
Santa Clara
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Porto
6.4
Famalicao
6.3
Guimaraes
6.0
Santa Clara
6.0
Boavista
5.9
Arouca
5.6
AVS
5.6
Estoril
5.4
Rio Ave
5.3
Vizela
5.2
Nacional
5.2
Estrela
4.9
Benfica
4.9
Sporting CP
4.9
Farense
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Moreirense
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.6
Casa Pia
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
30.7
Rio Ave
29.6
Santa Clara
28.9
FC Porto
28.4
Boavista
28.0
Farense
27.5
Vizela
27.5
Moreirense
27.5
Nacional
27.3
Guimaraes
26.8
AVS
26.8
Casa Pia
26.5
Estoril
26.3
Arouca
26.3
GIL Vicente
26.1
Estrela
26.1
Sporting CP
24.5
SC Braga
23.9
Benfica
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.5%
Under 3.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.2%
Under 21.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.20
1.33
0.17
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.43
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.29
1.07
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.22
0.87
0.36
1.00
0.08
0.75
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
0.00
1.33
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
2.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.30
1.00
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.21
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.43
0.57
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (23)
0.26
0.65
0.18
0.45
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
1.33
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Guimaraes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gustavo Silva36%
Úmaro Embaló22%
Tomás Ribeiro20%
Dieu-Merci Michel20%
Tiago Silva18%
Ricardo Mangas17%
Óscar Rivas15%
João Mendes15%
Telmo Arcanjo14%
Manuel Silva13%
Nélson Oliveira12%
Jesús Ramírez12%
Samu10%
Nuno Santos9%
Kaio César8%
Alberto Costa7%
Tomás Händel5%
Bruno Varela0%
Bruno Gaspar0%
Mikel Villanueva0%
Toni Borevković0%
Jorge Fernandes0%
Filipe Relvas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
José Bica0%
Vando Félix0%
Hevertton Santos0%
Miguel Maga0%
Zé Carlos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
João Mendes32%
Óscar Rivas31%
Mikel Villanueva30%
Toni Borevković26%
Tiago Silva25%
Manuel Silva22%
Alberto Costa21%
Gustavo Silva20%
Filipe Relvas18%
Telmo Arcanjo16%
Kaio César16%
Nélson Oliveira15%
Tomás Händel15%
Miguel Maga14%
Samu13%
Beni Mukendi12%
Vando Félix12%
João Mendes12%
Bruno Gaspar12%
Nuno Santos12%
Bruno Varela11%
Úmaro Embaló11%
Jesús Ramírez9%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Jorge Fernandes0%
Tomás Ribeiro0%
José Bica0%
Hevertton Santos0%
Zé Carlos0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kaio César20%
Nuno Santos16%
Tiago Silva12%
Bruno Gaspar12%
Nélson Oliveira10%
Manuel Silva9%
João Mendes7%
Alberto Costa7%
Jesús Ramírez6%
Telmo Arcanjo5%
Miguel Maga5%
Gustavo Silva4%
Samu3%
Tomás Händel2%
João Mendes2%
Bruno Varela0%
Mikel Villanueva0%
Toni Borevković0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Jorge Fernandes0%
Úmaro Embaló0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Tomás Ribeiro0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Beni Mukendi0%
José Bica0%
Vando Félix0%
Hevertton Santos0%
Zé Carlos0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Mangas33%
Jesús Ramírez25%
Gustavo Silva16%
Kaio César16%
José Bica14%
Telmo Arcanjo14%
Nélson Oliveira10%
João Mendes10%
Nuno Santos9%
Tiago Silva8%
Alberto Costa7%
Vando Félix6%
Samu5%
Manuel Silva4%
Bruno Varela0%
Bruno Gaspar0%
Mikel Villanueva0%
Toni Borevković0%
Jorge Fernandes0%
Úmaro Embaló0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Tomás Ribeiro0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Tomás Händel0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Hevertton Santos0%
Miguel Maga0%
Zé Carlos0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Onyemaechi17%
Róbert Boženík15%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Vitaliy Lystsov12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Joel Silva7%
Sebastián Pérez3%
Salvador Agra3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Manuel Namora0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Layvin Kurzawa50%
Miguel Reisinho38%
Pedro Gomes33%
Salvador Agra28%
Bruno Onyemaechi28%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Vitaliy Lystsov25%
Sebastián Pérez24%
Ibrahima Camará23%
Sidoine Fogning23%
Osman Kakay22%
Róbert Boženík21%
Marco van Ginkel18%
Joel Silva13%
Steven Vitória12%
Manuel Namora12%
Ilija Vukotić12%
Filipe Ferreira11%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Tomáš Vaclík8%
João Barros8%
César Dutra6%
Gonçalo Miguel5%
Moussa Koné0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
João Gonçalves0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
Tomás Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Augusto Dabo8%
Salvador Agra6%
Bruno Onyemaechi6%
Joel Silva3%
Róbert Boženík3%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Moussa Koné0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík30%
Moussa Koné14%
Miguel Reisinho14%
Marco van Ginkel9%
Abdoulay Diaby8%
Salvador Agra6%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Layvin Kurzawa0%
Tomáš Vaclík0%
César Dutra0%
Osman Kakay0%
Steven Vitória0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Gboly Ariyibi0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Manuel Namora0%
Vitaliy Lystsov0%
João Gonçalves0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Joel Silva0%
Pedro Gomes0%
Gonçalo Miguel0%
Tiago Machado0%
Marco Ribeiro0%
João Barros0%
Tomás Silva0%
Sidoine Fogning0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Arouca
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Farense
Vizela