The contest between HNK Gorica and HNK Rijeka is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 38% and 31% respectively, while a draw is 31%. The expected total goals hover around 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% chance. Gorica, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Rijeka, on the road against a weaker side, scores 1.0 and concedes 1.33. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 93.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 89.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 83.4%, Under 3.5 at 80.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.9%, Under 10.5 corners at 83.1% (miss), and Under 9.5 corners at 73.6% (miss). The match is poised for a tight encounter, with both sides carrying recent draws and a 0-0 scoreline against each other.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, HNK Gorica, failed to deliver, as the away side, HNK Rijeka, claimed a 0-2 victory. The model had picked a home win with a 38% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result of an away win. In the suggested picks, Over 2.5 cards (93.1%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (89.9%) hit, Over 3.5 cards (83.4%) hit, Under 10.5 corners (83.1%) missed, Under 3.5 (80.8%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (77.9%) hit, and Under 9.5 corners (73.6%) missed. The game ended with a clean sheet for Rijeka, extending their recent form after a draw.
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
HNK Gorica winā Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawā Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka winā Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.40
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
1.62
0.43
1.43
0.67
1.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
2.17
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.14
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
15% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-2 ā
5.9%
HNK Gorica goals ↓
HNK Rijeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.5%
7.9%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Gorica goals (down), columns = HNK Rijeka goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.97
NK Osijek
1.39
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.28
Istra 1961
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.19
HNK Gorica
0.89
Sibenik
0.75
HNK Gorica is 0.47 points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.36).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.81
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Varazdin
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.00
Istra 1961
1.00
NK Slaven Belupo
0.75
Sibenik
0.67
HNK Gorica is 0.22 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.22).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
Istra 1961
1.06
HNK Hajduk Split
1.14
NK Osijek
1.14
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.39
NK Varazdin
1.42
Sibenik
1.56
HNK Gorica is 0.17 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.22).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
63%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
52%
Istra 1961
52%
NK Varazdin
51%
HNK Rijeka
50%
NK Osijek
50%
HNK Gorica
44%
Sibenik
44%
NK Slaven Belupo
42%
HNK Gorica is 5.9 percentage points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average possession (44% vs 50%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.31
0.62
0.29
0.43
0.33
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.25
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 10.5 corners
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 3.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 9.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
HNK Gorica's squad is €26m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€9m vs €34m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
HNK Gorica's attack is €17m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€4m vs €21m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
HNK Gorica's midfield is €4m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€2m vs €5m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
HNK Gorica's defence is €5m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€3m vs €8m).
Croatia: HNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Osijek
Istra 1961
NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo
Sibenik