HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity dominates this encounter, with Gorica conceding 1.43 goals per game at home against stronger opposition while Rijeka has kept only 0.38 away. The model favours an away win, assigning 41% to Rijeka, 33% to a draw and 26% to a Gorica victory. The expected total is a tight 2.0 goals, and the most likely scoreline is a 0-0 stalemate, with a 15.3% chance. The match is projected to be low-scoring, reflecting both sides’ modest offensive output - Gorica averages 0.86 goals scored at home and Rijeka 0.62 away. Suggested selections include a 92% chance of over 19.5 fouls, an 89.4% chance of over 2.5 cards, an 86.3% chance of under 3.5 total goals, an 84.4% chance of under 11.5 corners, an 83.8% chance of over 21.5 fouls, a 71.8% chance of over 23.5 fouls, a 75.8% chance of under 10.5 corners, and a 76.7% chance of over 3.5 cards. All figures are expressed as percentages.

A dramatic 0-0 draw stunned the pre-match favourite, the away win, which the model had given a 41% chance. The prediction proved wrong, as the match finished in a stalemate. The model’s other selections all performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.4%, Under 3.5 at 86.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.8%, Under 10.5 corners at 75.8% and Over 23.5 fouls at 71.8%. Only Over 3.5 cards missed, coming in at 76.7%. Both sides entered the game on a draw, with Gorica’s recent form showing a string of losses and Rijeka a mixed run, yet neither side could break the deadlock.