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Ilirija vs Nafta Result & Analysis

Date: 30/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Ilirija
Ilirija
Vs
17%
23%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ilirija win✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta win✓ Hit
60.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W23L20W11D22D23L12L00D21W41WH·KRŠ22/11A·BRI28/02H·JES06/03A·TRI14/03H·DEK20/03H·TAB03/04A·SLO08/04A·RUD11/04H·BIS17/04A·KRK24/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.831.361.861.381.81
vs Stronger (8)0.882.250.332.001.202.40
vs Similar (20)1.451.851.602.001.301.70
vs Weaker (2)2.500.002.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W11D11D21W11D41W20W30W20W21WA·SLO22/11H·RUD27/02A·KRK08/03H·DRA16/03A·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04H·BIS25/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.102.251.441.790.71
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.006.001.000.00
vs Similar (12)1.501.171.331.501.670.83
vs Weaker (16)2.560.813.000.892.000.71
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
0-2 ✓
10.2%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
9.2%
0-3
6.8%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
4.8%
Ilirija goals ↓
Nafta goals →
01234
06.1%9.2%10%6.8%3.4%
14.0%11%10.0%6.7%3.3%
22.4%4.8%4.8%3.2%1.6%
30.8%1.6%1.6%1.1%0.5%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilirija goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Ilirija is 1.60 points worse than Nafta in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 2.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Ilirija is 0.90 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 2.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Ilirija is 0.97 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 0.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W10W01L20W02L00D01L31WH·KRŠ22/11A·BRI28/02H·JES06/03A·TRI14/03H·DEK20/03H·TAB03/04A·SLO08/04A·RUD11/04H·BIS17/04A·KRK24/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.360.790.691.06
vs Stronger (8)0.381.000.330.670.401.20
vs Similar (20)0.551.000.300.900.801.10
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L10W00D01L10W00D20W11DA·SLO22/11H·RUD27/02A·KRK08/03H·DRA16/03A·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04H·BIS25/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.470.750.621.000.29
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.004.001.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.420.500.501.170.33
vs Weaker (16)0.940.311.000.330.860.29
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L10W01L21W03L10W00D20W10WH·KRŠ22/11A·BRI28/02H·JES06/03A·TRI14/03H·DEK20/03H·TAB03/04A·SLO08/04A·RUD11/04H·BIS17/04A·KRK24/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.901.001.070.690.75
vs Stronger (8)0.501.250.001.330.801.20
vs Similar (20)0.900.851.301.100.500.60
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D11D10W11D11D40W10W30W00D10WA·SLO22/11H·RUD27/02A·KRK08/03H·DRA16/03A·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04H·BIS25/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.631.500.810.790.43
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.750.831.000.500.50
vs Weaker (16)1.620.502.000.561.140.43
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Ilirija's squad is €1m less valuable than Nafta's (€1m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Ilirija and Nafta have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Ilirija and Nafta have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Ilirija and Nafta have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ILI wins
0
Draws
3
NAF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ilirija vs Nafta · H/A from ILI
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/25ANafta Vs ILI2-1
18/11/23HILI Vs Nafta2-1
09/11/23ANafta Vs ILI2-0
02/03/23HILI Vs Nafta2-0
19/08/22ANafta Vs ILI3-0

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/26AKrka Vs ILI1-4
17/04/26HILI Vs Bistrica2-1
11/04/26ARudar Vs ILI0-0
08/04/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs ILI2-1
03/04/26HILI Vs Tabor Sežana2-3
20/03/26HILI Vs Dekani2-2
14/03/26ATriglav Vs ILI1-1
06/03/26HILI Vs Jesenice2-0
28/02/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ILI3-2
22/11/25HILI Vs Krško1-0

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HNAF Vs Bistrica2-1
17/04/26ATabor Sežana Vs NAF0-2
11/04/26HNAF Vs Dekani3-0
04/04/26AJesenice Vs NAF0-2
28/03/26HNAF Vs Krško4-1
21/03/26AGorica Vs NAF1-1
16/03/26HNAF Vs Dravinja2-1
08/03/26AKrka Vs NAF1-1
27/02/26HNAF Vs Rudar1-1
22/11/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs NAF2-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW0.90
HomeWWDLW0.88
AwayLDLDW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%17%19%
AVG goals2.722.922.54
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.621.831.42
BTTS66%67%65%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.72
HomeDWWWW1.85
AwayWDDWW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%54%42%
AVG goals2.983.312.62
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %50%62%38%
Over 3.5 %34%38%29%
Scored1.661.921.38
Conceded1.321.381.25
BTTS60%73%46%
Clean Sheet28%15%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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