This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.33
1.87
1.40
1.40
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.50
1.17
1.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
1.22
2.33
1.22
1.56
1.22
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
@ 1.72-9.6%
Under 2.5
54.2%
@ 2.14+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.8%
Inter goals ↓
Atalanta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
6.8%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.3%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.8%
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter goals (down), columns = Atalanta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Napoli
2.37
Lazio
1.95
Inter
1.89
Juventus
1.89
AC Milan
1.84
Atalanta
1.68
AS Roma
1.66
Fiorentina
1.47
Bologna
1.42
Torino
1.39
Monza
1.37
Udinese
1.21
Sassuolo
1.18
Empoli
1.13
Salernitana
1.11
Lecce
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Spezia
0.79
Cremonese
0.71
Sampdoria
0.50
Inter is 0.21 points better than Atalanta in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Napoli
2.03
Inter
1.87
Atalanta
1.74
AC Milan
1.68
Lazio
1.58
Juventus
1.47
Fiorentina
1.39
Bologna
1.39
AS Roma
1.32
Salernitana
1.26
Monza
1.26
Udinese
1.24
Sassuolo
1.24
Torino
1.11
Empoli
0.97
Cremonese
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Lecce
0.87
Spezia
0.82
Sampdoria
0.63
Inter is 0.13 goals better than Atalanta in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Napoli
0.74
Lazio
0.79
Juventus
0.87
AS Roma
1.00
Torino
1.08
Inter
1.11
Fiorentina
1.13
AC Milan
1.13
Lecce
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Atalanta
1.26
Bologna
1.29
Empoli
1.29
Monza
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.54
Sassuolo
1.61
Salernitana
1.63
Spezia
1.67
Cremonese
1.82
Sampdoria
1.87
Inter is 0.16 goals better than Atalanta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inter
For 4.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
24.4
23.1
25.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.8
9.6
10.0
2.4
2.6
2.2
26.1
25.4
26.8
vs Weaker (31)
10.2
12.5
8.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
20.2
17.5
23.0
% over line
43%
57%
29%
14%
12%
16%
57%
43%
71%
% under line
57%
43%
71%
86%
88%
84%
43%
57%
29%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
11.0
8.1
1.3
1.1
1.4
25.4
23.6
27.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
8.0
10.0
7.3
1.7
0.6
2.7
29.2
26.0
30.3
vs Weaker (33)
10.2
11.2
8.8
1.0
1.3
0.8
23.9
23.2
25.0
% over line
43%
57%
29%
16%
16%
16%
86%
86%
86%
% under line
57%
43%
71%
84%
84%
84%
14%
14%
14%
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Empoli
10.8
Salernitana
10.4
Udinese
10.2
Monza
10.2
Inter
10.1
Sassuolo
10.1
Juventus
9.8
Cremonese
9.6
Sampdoria
9.6
Lecce
9.5
Hellas Verona
9.5
Bologna
9.4
AS Roma
9.4
Torino
9.3
Napoli
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Spezia
9.2
AC Milan
9.1
Fiorentina
8.7
Lazio
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AS Roma
6.1
Lazio
5.4
Lecce
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Salernitana
5.1
Monza
5.1
Fiorentina
5.1
Torino
5.0
Udinese
4.9
Hellas Verona
4.9
Bologna
4.9
Napoli
4.9
Atalanta
4.8
AC Milan
4.7
Juventus
4.6
Sassuolo
4.6
Spezia
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sampdoria
4.4
Inter
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Monza
31.3
Torino
30.1
Lecce
30.0
Cremonese
29.4
Hellas Verona
28.7
Salernitana
28.1
Udinese
27.8
Spezia
26.9
Sampdoria
26.9
Atalanta
26.6
Juventus
26.5
Empoli
26.5
Fiorentina
26.3
AC Milan
26.3
Bologna
26.1
AS Roma
26.0
Sassuolo
25.9
Napoli
25.8
Lazio
24.1
Inter
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.7%
Under 9.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.8%
Under 3.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.7%
Under 21.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.60
0.33
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.14
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.29
0.78
0.33
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.61
1.00
0.67
0.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.13
0.47
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.83
0.33
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.59
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.07
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.92
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.61
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Inter
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lautaro Martínez39%
Romelu Lukaku33%
Edin Džeko20%
Nicolò Barella19%
Joaquín Correa11%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Robin Gosens9%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu9%
Marcelo Brozović8%
Federico Dimarco7%
Denzel Dumfries4%
Stefan de Vrij3%
Matteo Darmian2%
Samir Handanovič0%
Danilo D'Ambrosio0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Roberto Gagliardini0%
André Onana0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Alessandro Bastoni0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcelo Brozović27%
Roberto Gagliardini20%
Nicolò Barella19%
Valentín Carboni17%
Stefan de Vrij15%
Danilo D'Ambrosio14%
Milan Škriniar14%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan14%
Alessandro Bastoni12%
Lautaro Martínez12%
Francesco Acerbi12%
Matteo Darmian10%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu9%
Denzel Dumfries9%
Edin Džeko9%
André Onana8%
Kristjan Asllani8%
Robin Gosens7%
Romelu Lukaku6%
Federico Dimarco5%
Joaquín Correa3%
Samir Handanovič0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Romelu Lukaku18%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu18%
Lautaro Martínez18%
Federico Dimarco16%
Nicolò Barella13%
Alessandro Bastoni12%
Marcelo Brozović11%
Danilo D'Ambrosio10%
Denzel Dumfries9%
Edin Džeko9%
Joaquín Correa9%
Matteo Darmian5%
Francesco Acerbi5%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Samir Handanovič0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Roberto Gagliardini0%
André Onana0%
Robin Gosens0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lautaro Martínez41%
Romelu Lukaku24%
Edin Džeko20%
Nicolò Barella9%
Roberto Gagliardini8%
Federico Dimarco7%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu4%
Denzel Dumfries4%
Stefan de Vrij3%
Joaquín Correa3%
Alessandro Bastoni2%
Robin Gosens2%
Samir Handanovič0%
Danilo D'Ambrosio0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Marcelo Brozović0%
André Onana0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
Atalanta
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ademola Lookman35%
Rasmus Winther Højlund28%
Davide Zappacosta19%
Teun Koopmeiners18%
Mario Pašalić16%
Nadir Zortea11%
Luis Muriel10%
Joakim Mæhle9%
Jérémie Boga9%
Marten de Roon9%
Duván Zapata8%
Ruslan Malinovskyi7%
José Luis Palomino7%
Rafael Tolói6%
Giorgio Scalvini6%
Hans Hateboer6%
Merih Demiral4%
Éderson3%
Juan Musso0%
Berat Djimsiti0%
Caleb Okoli0%
Marco Sportiello0%
Matteo Ruggeri0%
Brandon Soppy0%
Lukáš Vorlický0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hans Hateboer41%
José Luis Palomino27%
Rafael Tolói25%
Giorgio Scalvini22%
Teun Koopmeiners21%
Marten de Roon20%
Matteo Ruggeri20%
Davide Zappacosta19%
Merih Demiral18%
Caleb Okoli18%
Joakim Mæhle15%
Ruslan Malinovskyi13%
Brandon Soppy13%
Berat Djimsiti12%
Éderson11%
Nadir Zortea11%
Ademola Lookman10%
Mario Pašalić9%
Juan Musso4%
Duván Zapata4%
Luis Muriel3%
Rasmus Winther Højlund3%
Jérémie Boga0%
Marco Sportiello0%
Lukáš Vorlický0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ademola Lookman19%
Ruslan Malinovskyi13%
Brandon Soppy13%
Jérémie Boga13%
Teun Koopmeiners12%
Luis Muriel10%
Davide Zappacosta10%
Duván Zapata8%
Matteo Ruggeri7%
Mario Pašalić6%
Rasmus Winther Højlund6%
Giorgio Scalvini6%
Joakim Mæhle6%
Hans Hateboer6%
Berat Djimsiti4%
Rafael Tolói3%
Éderson3%
Marten de Roon3%
Juan Musso0%
Caleb Okoli0%
José Luis Palomino0%
Merih Demiral0%
Marco Sportiello0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Lukáš Vorlický0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rasmus Winther Højlund19%
Ruslan Malinovskyi13%
Ademola Lookman13%
Teun Koopmeiners9%
Éderson9%
Duván Zapata8%
Mario Pašalić6%
Davide Zappacosta5%
Luis Muriel3%
Rafael Tolói3%
Giorgio Scalvini3%
Joakim Mæhle0%
Juan Musso0%
Berat Djimsiti0%
Hans Hateboer0%
Caleb Okoli0%
José Luis Palomino0%
Marten de Roon0%
Merih Demiral0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Marco Sportiello0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Matteo Ruggeri0%
Brandon Soppy0%
Lukáš Vorlický0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
HV (34)
€57m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
Inter's squad is €255m more valuable than Atalanta's (€694m vs €438m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
SPE (10)
€3m
Inter's attack is €62m more valuable than Atalanta's (€220m vs €158m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
SPE (11)
€4m
Inter's midfield is €104m more valuable than Atalanta's (€232m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
MON (11)
€20m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
Inter's defence is €90m more valuable than Atalanta's (€242m vs €153m).
Italy: Serie A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →