Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa Result & Analysis

The model sees a Jagiellonia win as the clear favourite, with a 61% chance, while a draw sits at 24% and a Legia victory at 15%. The expected goal tally is 2.7, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0, with an 11.6% chance. Legia, playing away against an opponent of similar strength, averages 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.0 on the road. The suggested selections are: Over 19.5 fouls 94.0%, Over 2.5 cards 93.1%, Over 21.5 fouls 87.1%, Over 3.5 cards 83.5%, Over 1.5 76.8%, Over 23.5 fouls 76.6%, and Under 3.5 70.7%. Jagiellonia have been on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Raków Czestochowa 5-2, whereas Legia come off a 0-3 loss to Motor Lublin. The match is expected to be a decisive Jagiellonia triumph, though the final score could differ.

The upset was clear: Legia Warszawa overturned Jagiellonia’s 3-game winning streak with a 5-2 victory, ending the home side’s run. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 61%, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 93.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 87.1%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 83.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.8%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 76.6%, while Under 3.5 missed at 70.7%. The final score of 2-5 confirmed the away win.