The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Anderlecht, 31% for Kortrijk and 27% for a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability. Kortrijk, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Anderlecht, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.91 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.6%, Over 8.5 corners at 79.5% and Over 3.5 cards at 71.3%. Kortrijk’s recent form shows three straight defeats before a win, and Anderlecht’s five-match run includes a recent loss to Union St. Gilloise. These trends underline the likelihood of a decisive away victory.
Results analysis
The match saw Anderlecht extend their recent run, turning a defeat into a convincing 1-4 victory over Kortrijk. The model had picked an away win with a 42% probability, and the result confirmed that call. The predicted total of 2.9 goals was far below the actual tally, which exceeded the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome. The suggested selections performed as follows: Over 2.5 cards hit at 86.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 79.6%, Over 8.5 corners missed at 79.5%, and Over 3.5 cards missed at 71.3%. The model’s overall prediction proved correct, delivering a clear away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kortrijk win✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kortrijk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.30
1.60
0.87
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
1.80
1.60
1.00
1.00
2.60
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.36
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.80
1.13
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
2.05
1.59
2.18
1.36
1.91
1.82
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
0-0
6.7%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
Kortrijk goals ↓
Anderlecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.6%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
1
6.1%
13%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.8%
7.6%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.1%
3.3%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kortrijk goals (down), columns = Anderlecht goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Genk
2.10
Club Brugge KV
1.87
Standard Liege
1.77
Anderlecht
1.70
Gent
1.67
Antwerp
1.63
St. Truiden
1.57
Kortrijk
1.43
Charleroi
1.40
Mouscron
1.33
Zulte Waregem
1.10
Eupen
1.07
Cercle Brugge
0.93
Oostende
0.90
SK Beveren
0.90
Lokeren
0.67
Kortrijk is 0.27 points worse than Anderlecht in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Genk
2.10
Gent
1.77
Zulte Waregem
1.63
Anderlecht
1.63
Standard Liege
1.63
St. Truiden
1.57
Kortrijk
1.47
Charleroi
1.43
Antwerp
1.30
SK Beveren
1.23
Cercle Brugge
1.17
Eupen
1.13
Mouscron
1.10
Oostende
0.97
Lokeren
0.93
Kortrijk is 0.17 goals worse than Anderlecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Genk
1.03
Club Brugge KV
1.07
Mouscron
1.10
Anderlecht
1.13
Antwerp
1.13
Standard Liege
1.17
St. Truiden
1.20
Kortrijk
1.40
Charleroi
1.43
Gent
1.50
SK Beveren
1.67
Oostende
1.73
Lokeren
1.77
Eupen
1.90
Cercle Brugge
1.97
Zulte Waregem
2.00
Kortrijk is 0.27 goals worse than Anderlecht in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kortrijk
For 5.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Anderlecht
For 4.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kortrijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.2
12.9
11.5
2.7
2.8
2.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (14)
13.2
13.8
12.6
2.7
3.3
2.2
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
12.0
12.4
11.6
2.8
2.6
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
10.8
12.3
9.3
2.6
2.5
2.8
-
-
-
% over line
77%
80%
73%
42%
40%
44%
-
-
-
% under line
23%
20%
27%
58%
60%
56%
-
-
-
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.3
11.1
2.7
2.6
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.6
8.5
10.8
3.7
4.0
3.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (38)
11.1
10.9
11.3
2.4
2.2
2.7
-
-
-
% over line
63%
53%
73%
36%
36%
36%
-
-
-
% under line
37%
47%
27%
64%
64%
64%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kortrijk
12.2
Oostende
10.9
Eupen
10.8
Anderlecht
10.7
SK Beveren
10.6
Lokeren
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.3
Gent
10.3
Zulte Waregem
10.2
Antwerp
10.0
Genk
9.7
Standard Liege
9.6
St. Truiden
9.4
Mouscron
9.1
Charleroi
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Standard Liege
5.9
Gent
5.7
St. Truiden
5.5
Eupen
5.1
Zulte Waregem
5.0
Mouscron
4.9
Genk
4.8
Oostende
4.6
Antwerp
4.6
Anderlecht
4.6
Charleroi
4.6
Kortrijk
4.6
Club Brugge KV
4.5
Lokeren
4.4
SK Beveren
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
69.2%
Under 9.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.3%
Under 3.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kortrijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.80
0.13
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.50
1.14
0.00
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
0.67
0.53
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.73
0.82
0.64
1.45
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kortrijk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kortrijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.00
1.20
0.60
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.86
0.86
1.00
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
0.00
0.33
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.13
0.60
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
0.91
0.86
1.36
0.73
0.45
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kortrijk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kortrijk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierry Ambrose40%
Bryan Adinany40%
Jellert Van Landschoot38%
Mouhamed Gueye25%
Ilan Hurtevent24%
Brecht Dejaegere11%
Matthew Anderson11%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes6%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
James Ndjeungoue6%
Manuel Osifo6%
Boris Lambert5%
Lenn De Smet5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Lennard Hens0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Rudy Kohon0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brecht Dejaegere28%
Mohamed Fofana25%
Bryan Adinany20%
James Ndjeungoue18%
Rudy Kohon17%
Thierry Ambrose15%
Jellert Van Landschoot14%
Lennard Hens14%
Gilles Ruyssen12%
Ilan Hurtevent12%
Liam De Smet11%
Manuel Osifo11%
Boris Lambert10%
Lenn De Smet10%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes6%
Matthew Anderson6%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Sixtus Ogbuehi0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thierry Ambrose40%
Lennard Hens21%
Bryan Adinany20%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes19%
Brecht Dejaegere17%
Matthew Anderson17%
Lenn De Smet14%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
Ilan Hurtevent6%
Manuel Osifo6%
Rudy Kohon6%
Boris Lambert5%
Jellert Van Landschoot5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
James Ndjeungoue0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cassius Mailula33%
Thierry Ambrose20%
Bryan Adinany20%
Jellert Van Landschoot19%
Ilan Hurtevent12%
Gilles Ruyssen6%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
James Ndjeungoue6%
Brecht Dejaegere6%
Boris Lambert5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Lennard Hens0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes0%
Lenn De Smet0%
Manuel Osifo0%
Rudy Kohon0%
Matthew Anderson0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
Anderlecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joshua Nga Kana33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Danylo Sikan0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Ali Maamar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giulian Biancone67%
Danylo Sikan33%
Marco Kana33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Ali Maamar0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ali Maamar33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Danylo Sikan0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danylo Sikan67%
Ali Maamar33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
CB (26)
€40m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Kortrijk's squad is €74m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€18m vs €91m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
SL (9)
€14m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
Kortrijk's attack is €42m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€9m vs €50m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
ANT (4)
€10m
SL (7)
€8m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Kortrijk's midfield is €14m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€4m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Kortrijk's defence is €18m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€5m vs €24m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →