Luton are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win at 46%. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most probable total is two, a 24% chance. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability. Luton’s home form against similar opposition shows a solid 2.14 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded, while Stockport’s away record versus similar teams yields 1.56 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9% with a 2% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.7% (edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4% (edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3% (edge 4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.0% (edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals at 95.8% (edge 3%) and Under 5.5 at 91.7% (edge 2%). Luton’s recent run of two straight defeats ended with a 2-5 loss to Mansfield, whereas Stockport are coming off a 5-1 win over Wycombe. The odds of a draw sit at 26%, and the chance of an away win is 28%.
Results analysis
Luton’s recent win extends their form, and Stockport are still coming off a defeat. The model predicted a home win with a 46% probability, and that call was correct as Luton secured a 2-0 victory. The expected total of three goals was close to the actual two, and the most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%) and Under 5.5 (91.7%). The model’s predictions were largely accurate.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Luton win✓ Hit
46.0%
Avg Implied 38.6% · @ 2.42
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.63
Marathonbet
2.52
Betano
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.54
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Stockport win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.68
Edge
-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.15
SBO
2.86
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.68
BetVictor
2.63
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Luton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.33
2.07
1.14
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.15
2.14
0.86
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (16)
2.00
1.44
2.00
1.43
2.00
1.44
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.27
2.07
0.93
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.94
1.29
2.38
0.88
1.56
1.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
1.23
1.71
1.00
1.17
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
@ 1.17+1.5%
Under 1.5
19.0%
@ 4.55-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
5.04
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.60-1.2%
Under 2.5
42.6%
@ 2.27+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Betfair
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
@ 2.47-2.7%
Under 3.5
65.0%
@ 1.50+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.3%
@ 1.50-1.5%
No
39.7%
@ 2.42+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.61+5.3%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.66+4.2%
1-0
7.5%@ 9.88+2.9%
2-0 ✓
7.3%@ 13.06+3.8%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.26+2.2%
0-0
6.1%@ 13.12+2.7%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.56+1.8%
0-1
5.4%@ 10.63+1.1%
Luton goals ↓
Stockport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
5.4%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.5%
12%
7.1%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.4%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.3%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.8%
2.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Luton goals (down), columns = Stockport goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Luton is 0.09 points worse than Stockport in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Luton is 0.05 goals worse than Stockport in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Luton is 0.05 goals better than Stockport in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Luton is 0.7 percentage points better than Stockport in terms of average possession (56% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Luton
For 6.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stockport
For 7.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Luton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.5
9.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.0
24.0
23.9
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
-
12.0
1.0
-
1.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (23)
11.2
13.2
9.0
4.2
3.7
4.7
24.4
23.8
25.1
vs Weaker (26)
9.7
9.9
9.5
3.4
3.6
3.2
23.8
24.2
23.4
% over line
59%
67%
52%
50%
42%
58%
63%
62%
64%
% under line
41%
33%
48%
50%
58%
42%
37%
38%
36%
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.9
9.8
3.1
3.0
3.3
20.8
19.8
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
10.5
10.4
10.7
3.1
3.0
3.2
21.1
20.1
22.2
vs Weaker (24)
9.0
9.4
8.7
3.2
2.9
3.4
20.5
19.5
21.5
% over line
50%
50%
50%
44%
40%
48%
46%
38%
54%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
56%
60%
52%
54%
62%
46%
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Burton
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Doncaster
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.8
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.9%
@ 1.60+4.0%
Under 9.5
38.1%
@ 2.20-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Luton or Draw✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 65.2% · @ 1.43
Edge
+6.8%
46%
26%
28%
covers Luton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Luton or Stockport✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.2%
46%
26%
28%
covers Luton + Stockport
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Stockport✗ Miss
54.0%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.52
Edge
-7.0%
46%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Stockport
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
SBO
1.56
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Luton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.7%
@ 1.19+3.6%
Under
18.3%
@ 4.24-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Luton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.7%
@ 1.99+3.7%
Under
49.3%
@ 1.76-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathonbet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Luton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 4.19+2.0%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.20-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.44
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Luton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 9.00-1.1%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.05+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Stockport over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.5%
@ 1.22-3.8%
Under
27.5%
@ 3.92+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.52
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Stockport over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.10-7.6%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.68+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.17
1xBet
2.13
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Stockport over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 4.56-6.4%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.17+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.70
BetVictor
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Stockport over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 10.92-4.5%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Luton, so a minus line means Luton give that many goals of a start and Stockport receive them. At -1, Luton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Luton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Luton)Actual: Draw
Luton -2
10.8%
@ 8.99+0.9%
Draw -2
14.3%
@ 6.31+0.2%
Stockport +2
75.0%
@ 1.17-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.90
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Luton)Actual: Luton
Luton -1
25.0%
@ 4.54+5.3%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 4.26-0.1%
Stockport +1
54.0%
@ 1.51-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.45
Unibet
4.25
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Handicap +1 (Luton)Actual: Luton
Luton +1
72.0%
@ 1.45+9.7%
Draw +1
15.6%
@ 4.45-4.6%
Stockport -1
12.4%
@ 5.12-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Handicap +2 (Luton)Actual: Luton
Luton +2
87.6%
@ 1.12+8.2%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 7.21-4.2%
Stockport -2
4.2%
@ 10.94-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
6.80
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
9.30
Marathonbet
6.45
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Luton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.29
0.50
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.77
1.43
0.57
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.75
1.14
0.43
0.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.71
0.88
0.88
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.46
0.86
0.57
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.29-2.0%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 3.35+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.35-2.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.54+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Under
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 5.42-4.9%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.12+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
Under
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Luton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.5%
@ 1.86+1.7%
Under
48.5%
@ 1.85-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Luton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.35-3.1%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.12+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.60
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Luton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 14.08-3.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Stockport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.0%
@ 1.91-4.6%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.81+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.78
Stockport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 5.66-5.8%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.10+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Stockport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 15.75-4.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Luton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.71
0.29
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.69
0.86
1.00
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Stockport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stockport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.20
0.20
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.59
1.50
0.00
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.77
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.16-1.1%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 4.72+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.12
Under
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.8%
@ 1.82-4.3%
Under 1.5
53.2%
@ 1.90+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.6%
@ 3.48-6.1%
Under 2.5
79.4%
@ 1.27+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.50
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Luton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.59-1.7%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.22+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Luton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.4%
@ 3.85-6.6%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.22+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Luton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 9.75-5.6%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Stockport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.6%
@ 1.60-7.1%
Under
49.4%
@ 2.19+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Stockport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 3.93-4.5%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.21+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Stockport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 10.25-5.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.12
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.7%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.12
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
-1.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
1.34
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-3.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.43
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.45
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
-2.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Luton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
N. Wells80%
C. Marshall50%
G. Kodua20%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
J. Richards0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Naismith33%
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh20%
N. Wells20%
G. Johnston20%
Isaiah Jones20%
G. Kodua20%
H. Odoffin0%
H. Ashby0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
N. Wells0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N. Wells40%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Stockport
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Mandron67%
Kyle Wootton50%
J. Diamond25%
H. Wood25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
O. Norwood0%
B. Osborn0%
Lewis Bate0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
Ryan Glover0%
Ethan Pye0%
Benoný Breki Andrésson0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Jason Adigun0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
O. Norwood25%
Ryan Glover25%
Jason Adigun25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
M. Mandron0%
B. Osborn0%
Kyle Wootton0%
J. Diamond0%
Lewis Bate0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
H. Wood0%
Ethan Pye0%
Benoný Breki Andrésson0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
O. Norwood25%
Kyle Wootton25%
Lewis Bate25%
Benoný Breki Andrésson25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
M. Mandron0%
B. Osborn0%
J. Diamond0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
H. Wood0%
Ryan Glover0%
Ethan Pye0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Jason Adigun0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kyle Wootton50%
O. Norwood25%
J. Diamond25%
H. Wood25%
Eoghan O'Connell0%
M. Mandron0%
B. Osborn0%
Lewis Bate0%
Kyron Silveria Gordon0%
Ryan Glover0%
Ethan Pye0%
Benoný Breki Andrésson0%
Oliver Whatmuff0%
Jason Adigun0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Luton's squad is €19m more valuable than Stockport's (€29m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Luton's attack is €10m more valuable than Stockport's (€13m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Luton's midfield is €1m more valuable than Stockport's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Luton's defence is €8m more valuable than Stockport's (€12m vs €4m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Leyton Orient
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe