Marseille, on a 2-game winning run, hosts Strasbourg, also on a 2-game winning run. The recent form of both teams suggests an intriguing encounter, with Marseille having beaten Rennes 3-1 and Strasbourg having come from behind to defeat Monaco 5-4. However, Marseille's home form is more impressive, scoring 1.71 goals on average and conceding 1.14, especially against weaker opponents.
This match is projected to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.1%. Marseille's home win percentage is 54%, while the draw percentage is 23% and the away win percentage is 23%.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 86.0% and a 5% edge, Home or Away with a 76.4% chance, and Home or Draw with a 72.3% chance.
Results analysis
Marseille’s 3-game winning run carried them into a decisive 4-0 victory over Strasbourg, confirming the model’s home-win pick with a 56 % probability. The pre-match favourite, Home win, proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98 %, Under 7.5 hit at 97.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.1 %, Under 6.5 hit at 94.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94.0 %, Under 5.5 hit at 87.0 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 86.9 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 86.9 %. The most likely total of 3 goals, with a 22 % chance, was surpassed, yet the overall outcome aligned with the model’s predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marseille win✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.74
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Dafabet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 4.06
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.36
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.12
Betano
4.10
Strasbourg win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.30
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.56
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Dafabet
4.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marseille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.50
1.80
1.33
2.20
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (16)
1.88
1.50
1.90
1.30
1.83
1.83
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
1.23
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.30
1.82
1.35
1.92
1.23
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.85
1.35
1.92
1.42
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
1.11
1.75
1.00
2.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.15+4.1%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 5.08-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.0%
@ 1.54+3.5%
Under 2.5
35.0%
@ 2.45-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Unibet
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.0%
@ 2.34+2.4%
Under 3.5
57.0%
@ 1.60-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.39
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.5%
@ 1.53+2.5%
No
36.4%
@ 2.40-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
No
Betfair
2.50
William Hil
2.45
888Sport
2.45
Superbet
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.64+4.3%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.68+3.8%
2-0
7.7%@ 9.63+3.0%
3-1
6.7%@ 11.14+2.7%
1-0
6.5%@ 9.25+1.6%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.60+2.2%
1-2
5.8%@ 12.70+2.2%
3-0
5.4%@ 13.63+2.1%
Marseille goals ↓
Strasbourg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.5%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.5%
10%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.7%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.4%
6.7%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.8%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marseille goals (down), columns = Strasbourg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Marseille is 0.18 points better than Strasbourg in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Marseille is 0.15 goals better than Strasbourg in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Marseille is 0.06 goals better than Strasbourg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Marseille is 3.2 percentage points better than Strasbourg in terms of average possession (57% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Marseille
For 5.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Strasbourg
For 4.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Marseille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
8.9
4.4
4.5
4.2
23.6
23.9
23.2
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.2
4.0
5.7
25.5
23.0
26.3
vs Similar (25)
9.6
9.4
10.0
4.6
4.6
4.5
22.8
23.5
21.8
vs Weaker (21)
8.4
8.7
8.1
3.9
4.3
3.5
24.2
24.6
23.8
% over line
42%
48%
36%
72%
72%
72%
54%
52%
56%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
28%
28%
28%
46%
48%
44%
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.3
8.7
4.3
3.7
4.8
23.8
21.8
26.0
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
11.0
5.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
20.5
14.0
27.0
vs Similar (35)
9.3
9.6
9.0
4.2
3.9
4.6
23.5
21.9
25.4
vs Weaker (13)
8.2
7.8
8.6
4.6
3.5
5.6
25.2
22.7
27.4
% over line
44%
50%
38%
58%
46%
71%
72%
69%
75%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
42%
54%
29%
28%
31%
25%
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.5
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Lens
4.4
Strasbourg
4.3
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.5
Le Mans
27.3
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.8
Lyon
25.4
Toulouse
25.4
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Strasbourg
23.8
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.8
Marseille
23.6
Lorient
23.1
Paris FC
22.6
Angers
22.5
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.7%
@ 1.90-3.4%
Under 9.5
54.3%
@ 1.83+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Under
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.75+8.6%
Under 3.5
38.2%
@ 2.00-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.8%
@ 1.39+5.6%
Under 21.5
29.2%
@ 2.60-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Under
1xBet
2.60
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marseille or Draw✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-5.7%
56%
23%
21%
covers Marseille + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Marseille or Strasbourg✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied 77.2% · @ 1.22
Edge
-1.0%
56%
23%
21%
covers Marseille + Strasbourg
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Draw or Strasbourg✗ Miss
51.8%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.09
Edge
+6.7%
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Strasbourg
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marseille over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.7%
@ 1.10+1.1%
Under
14.3%
@ 6.04-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Marseille over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.0%
@ 1.58-1.3%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.29+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.33
Unibet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Marseille over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.9%
@ 2.80-2.4%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.40+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.86
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marseille over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.3%
@ 5.81-2.7%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Strasbourg over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.7%
@ 1.34+7.4%
Under
23.3%
@ 3.02-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
888Sport
3.00
Strasbourg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 2.70+8.1%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.43-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Strasbourg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 6.61+3.9%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.08-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Under
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Strasbourg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 16.94+0.4%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.02-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marseille, so a minus line means Marseille give that many goals of a start and Strasbourg receive them. At -1, Marseille must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marseille win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marseille)Actual: Marseille
Marseille -2
13.1%
@ 5.25-4.0%
Draw -2
14.8%
@ 4.96-3.3%
Strasbourg +2
72.0%
@ 1.39+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Draw
Superbet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap -1 (Marseille)Actual: Marseille
Marseille -1
28.0%
@ 2.77-4.7%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 3.75-3.8%
Strasbourg +1
51.8%
@ 2.08+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.63
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.72
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Away
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Handicap +1 (Marseille)Actual: Marseille
Marseille +1
72.1%
@ 1.21-3.0%
Draw +1
14.9%
@ 6.13+0.1%
Strasbourg -1
13.1%
@ 8.87+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Away
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Handicap +2 (Marseille)Actual: Marseille
Marseille +2
86.9%
@ 1.05-0.8%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 11.67+0.4%
Strasbourg -2
4.8%
@ 21.00+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marseille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.70
0.30
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
0.40
0.60
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.94
0.59
0.92
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.25
0.75
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.26+1.8%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.67-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.7%
@ 2.25-0.0%
Under 1.5
58.3%
@ 1.62+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathonbet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 5.02-1.8%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.15+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Unibet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marseille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.4%
@ 1.59-5.2%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.26+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.56
Under
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Unibet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marseille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 3.79-5.6%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.22+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Marseille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 9.62-5.7%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 2.24+6.3%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.60-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 7.32+0.5%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.06-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.60
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 18.75-3.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marseille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
1.20
0.93
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.06
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.69
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Strasbourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Strasbourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.88
0.76
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.80
1.08
0.92
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marseille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marseille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marseille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strasbourg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.1%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.2%
1.22
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
1.33
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.30
-
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
1.29
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.3%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.1%
1.22
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.1%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.0%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
1.39
1xBet
1.39
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Marseille · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mason Greenwood41%
Neal Maupay33%
Amine Gouiri33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28%
Igor Paixão27%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Hamed Junior Traorè17%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Robinio Vaz16%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Amir Murillo8%
Tim Weah8%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Nayef Aguerd5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Bilal Nadir4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Benjamin Pavard3%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Facundo Medina0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Medina32%
Quinten Timber31%
Nayef Aguerd27%
Geoffrey Kondogbia25%
Benjamin Pavard22%
Himad Abdelli22%
Amir Murillo21%
Leonardo Balerdi20%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Bilal Nadir18%
Ulisses Garcia17%
Tim Weah15%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg14%
Mason Greenwood14%
Matt O'Riley12%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Emerson Palmieri11%
Darryl Bakola10%
Gerónimo Rulli8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Amine Gouiri7%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Robinio Vaz5%
Igor Paixão5%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang2%
Neal Maupay0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matt O'Riley21%
Amine Gouiri19%
Mason Greenwood18%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang18%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Igor Paixão15%
Bilal Nadir14%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Hamed Junior Traorè11%
Robinio Vaz11%
Tim Weah10%
Darryl Bakola10%
Ethan Nwaneri9%
Benjamin Pavard8%
Amir Murillo8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Geoffrey Kondogbia6%
Emerson Palmieri6%
Angel Gomes5%
Facundo Medina4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mason Greenwood48%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang22%
Igor Paixão22%
Amine Gouiri19%
Leonardo Balerdi6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Tim Weah5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg2%
Angel Gomes0%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Benjamin Pavard0%
Amir Murillo0%
Facundo Medina0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Bilal Nadir0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Strasbourg · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joaquin Panichelli44%
Emmanuel Emegha33%
Martial Godo30%
Sebastian Nanasi26%
Julio Enciso24%
Dilane Bakwa20%
Diego Moreira12%
Abdoul Ouattara9%
Maxi Oyedele7%
Valentín Barco7%
Guéla Doué6%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw5%
Kendry Páez5%
Ismael Doukouré5%
Samir El Mourabet4%
Andrew Omobamidele2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
Junior Mwanga0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Félix Lemaréchal0%
Mike Penders0%
Rafael Luis0%
Gessime Yassine0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yaya Diémé67%
Maxi Oyedele29%
Emmanuel Emegha28%
Tyrese Noubissie25%
Diego Moreira24%
Mamadou Sarr22%
Valentín Barco21%
Guéla Doué21%
Andrew Omobamidele17%
Ismael Doukouré16%
Mathis Amougou16%
Ben Chilwell15%
Samir El Mourabet15%
Junior Mwanga12%
Rabby Nzingoula12%
Mike Penders10%
Kendry Páez10%
Martial Godo9%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw8%
Joaquin Panichelli8%
Lucas Høgsberg8%
Félix Lemaréchal6%
Rafael Luis6%
Gessime Yassine5%
Julio Enciso5%
Abdoul Ouattara5%
Sebastian Nanasi3%
Dilane Bakwa0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dilane Bakwa40%
Guéla Doué21%
Diego Moreira17%
Valentín Barco16%
Sebastian Nanasi15%
Julio Enciso14%
Félix Lemaréchal12%
Martial Godo11%
Emmanuel Emegha11%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw10%
Ben Chilwell9%
Joaquin Panichelli8%
Rafael Luis6%
Gessime Yassine5%
Ismael Doukouré5%
Samir El Mourabet4%
Andrew Omobamidele0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
Junior Mwanga0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Maxi Oyedele0%
Mike Penders0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Kendry Páez0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joaquin Panichelli38%
Julio Enciso29%
Félix Lemaréchal19%
Martial Godo18%
Junior Mwanga12%
Emmanuel Emegha11%
Sebastian Nanasi9%
Valentín Barco7%
Gessime Yassine5%
Abdoul Ouattara5%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw3%
Diego Moreira2%
Ismael Doukouré2%
Ben Chilwell0%
Dilane Bakwa0%
Andrew Omobamidele0%
Guéla Doué0%
Mamadou Sarr0%
David Datro Fofana0%
Maxi Oyedele0%
Mike Penders0%
Rafael Luis0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Mathis Amougou0%
Lucas Høgsberg0%
Kendry Páez0%
Samir El Mourabet0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Tyrese Noubissie0%
Yaya Diémé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Marseille's squad is €79m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€225m vs €304m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Marseille's attack is €21m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€91m vs €112m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Marseille's midfield is €12m more valuable than Strasbourg's (€68m vs €56m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Marseille's defence is €70m less valuable than Strasbourg's (€66m vs €136m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Angers
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre