This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.47
1.12
1.25
0.57
1.71
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
1.62
1.11
1.44
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.29
1.14
1.00
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
@ 2.05-5.9%
Under 2.5
60.0%
@ 1.74+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.8%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
9.8%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
4.5%
Modena goals ↓
Ternana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.8%
8.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Modena goals (down), columns = Ternana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Modena is 0.14 points better than Ternana in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Modena is 0.02 goals worse than Ternana in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Modena is 0.11 goals better than Ternana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Modena is 6.3 percentage points better than Ternana in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Modena
For 6.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ternana
For 5.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Modena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.8
9.8
1.1
0.9
1.3
26.1
23.8
28.4
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.3
10.8
9.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
26.9
24.0
30.7
vs Weaker (9)
12.0
16.0
10.0
2.1
1.0
3.0
24.3
23.0
25.0
% over line
60%
80%
40%
16%
16%
16%
80%
80%
80%
% under line
40%
20%
60%
84%
84%
84%
20%
20%
20%
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.6
1.1
1.5
0.7
26.8
25.7
28.2
vs Stronger (25)
8.6
9.3
7.5
0.9
1.2
0.6
25.8
24.7
27.5
vs Similar (25)
8.4
7.8
9.3
1.3
1.8
0.8
27.4
26.5
28.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
29%
60%
18%
27%
8%
83%
71%
100%
% under line
58%
71%
40%
82%
73%
92%
17%
29%
0%
This opponent (Modena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.4
Parma
10.8
Modena
10.8
Pisa
10.8
Venezia
10.3
Como
10.2
Bari
10.1
Ascoli
10.1
Palermo
9.8
Lecco
9.8
Sudtirol
9.7
Cremonese
9.7
Ternana
9.6
Reggiana
9.6
Spezia
9.5
Catanzaro
9.2
Sampdoria
9.2
Cittadella
9.0
FeralpiSalo
8.9
Cosenza
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.0
Pisa
5.8
Cosenza
5.6
Ascoli
5.6
Parma
5.5
Modena
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
Como
5.3
Reggiana
5.2
Sudtirol
5.2
Spezia
5.1
Lecco
5.1
FeralpiSalo
5.1
Venezia
5.1
Palermo
5.1
Sampdoria
5.0
Ternana
5.0
Brescia
4.7
Bari
4.7
Catanzaro
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.0
Pisa
31.6
Reggiana
31.2
Palermo
30.8
Ascoli
30.7
Como
30.0
Bari
28.7
Parma
28.5
Ternana
28.5
Cremonese
28.5
Sampdoria
27.8
Lecco
27.8
Sudtirol
27.6
Spezia
27.3
FeralpiSalo
27.2
Cosenza
27.1
Catanzaro
26.8
Brescia
26.7
Modena
26.1
Venezia
25.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.7%
Under 9.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.5%
Under 3.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.8%
Under 21.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Modena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.20
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.32
0.55
0.18
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.81
0.62
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.69
0.67
0.78
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.64
1.00
0.43
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Modena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Modena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.91
0.55
0.73
0.55
1.09
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ternana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.31
0.62
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.94
0.44
0.67
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.64
0.14
0.57
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Modena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Modena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabio Abiuso22%
Luca Strizzolo19%
Antonio Palumbo17%
Kleis Bozhanaj14%
Luca Tremolada12%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Edoardo Duca11%
Jacopo Manconi10%
Nicholas Bonfanti10%
Thomas Battistella9%
Giovanni Zaro8%
Ettore Gliozzi6%
Fabio Gerli4%
Fabio Ponsi4%
Luca Magnino3%
Andrea Seculin0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Simone Santoro0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Mario Gargiulo0%
Matteo Cotali0%
Shady Oukhadda0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Alessandro Pio Riccio0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Battistella41%
Simone Santoro33%
Antonio Pergreffi33%
Mario Gargiulo33%
Edoardo Duca32%
Fabio Ponsi31%
Abdoul Guiebre30%
Antonio Palumbo25%
Cristian Cauz25%
Matteo Cotali23%
Fabio Abiuso22%
Alessandro Pio Riccio21%
Luca Strizzolo19%
Kleis Bozhanaj19%
Giovanni Zaro19%
Diego Falcinelli18%
Jacopo Manconi17%
Fabio Gerli17%
Shady Oukhadda16%
Andrea Seculin12%
Luca Magnino11%
Luca Tremolada8%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Battistella14%
Fabio Gerli12%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Fabio Ponsi12%
Antonio Palumbo8%
Luca Tremolada8%
Jacopo Manconi7%
Andrea Seculin6%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Luca Magnino5%
Matteo Cotali3%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Mario Gargiulo0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
Giovanni Zaro0%
Shady Oukhadda0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Edoardo Duca0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Alessandro Pio Riccio0%
Kleis Bozhanaj0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Fabio Abiuso0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Tremolada24%
Fabio Abiuso22%
Simone Santoro13%
Luca Strizzolo12%
Ettore Gliozzi11%
Jacopo Manconi10%
Diego Falcinelli6%
Antonio Palumbo6%
Luca Magnino5%
Edoardo Duca5%
Kleis Bozhanaj5%
Thomas Battistella5%
Shady Oukhadda4%
Andrea Seculin0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Mario Gargiulo0%
Fabio Gerli0%
Giovanni Zaro0%
Matteo Cotali0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Alessandro Pio Riccio0%
Fabio Ponsi0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
Ternana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gastón Pereiro30%
Filippo Distefano21%
Antonio Raimondo18%
Salim Diakite16%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Filippo Sgarbi11%
Tiago Casasola11%
Gregorio Luperini8%
Lorenzo Lucchesi7%
Alessandro Celli6%
César Falletti5%
Franco Carboni5%
Andrea Favilli4%
Federico Dionisi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Łabojko35%
César Falletti32%
Salim Diakite32%
Gabriele Boloca29%
Lorenzo Lucchesi26%
Gastón Pereiro25%
Kees de Boer24%
Filippo Sgarbi22%
Gregorio Luperini22%
Lorenzo Amatucci22%
Federico Viviani20%
Iulius Marginean20%
Franco Carboni19%
Alessandro Celli19%
Federico Dionisi17%
Tommaso Vitali17%
Tiago Casasola13%
Andrea Favilli13%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Antony Iannarilli12%
Niklas Pyyhtiä10%
Antonio Raimondo10%
Costantino Favasuli10%
Filippo Distefano9%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Marco Capuano8%
Christian Dalle Mura7%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
César Falletti16%
Kees de Boer12%
Lorenzo Amatucci11%
Salim Diakite11%
Gastón Pereiro10%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Tiago Casasola8%
Valerio Mantovani7%
Filippo Distefano6%
Gregorio Luperini6%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Jakub Łabojko4%
Lorenzo Lucchesi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Costantino Favasuli3%
Antonio Raimondo2%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Franco Carboni0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antonio Raimondo25%
Gastón Pereiro20%
César Falletti16%
Filippo Distefano12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Andrea Favilli9%
Salim Diakite5%
Franco Carboni5%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Tiago Casasola0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Reggiana
Pisa
Cittadella
Bari
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco