Montpellier are the clear favorites, with a 56% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of Boulogne winning. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Montpellier, a 13.9% probability. Montpellier’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Boulogne, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.7% with a 3% edge), Over 19.5 fouls (97.9%), Under 5.5 (96.7% with a 5% edge), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.0% with a 4% edge). Montpellier’s recent two-game winning streak and a 1-0 win over Dunkerque add confidence, while Boulogne’s recent draw and 1-1 result against RED Star FC 93 suggest a cautious approach.
Results analysis
The unexpected 0-0 draw stunned Montpellier, whose unbeaten run of DWWDD had suggested a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was given a 56% probability, but the result proved wrong. The model’s selection of Under 7.5, with a 99.7% probability, was hit, as were its other picks: Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.8%), Over 19.5 fouls (97.9%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.0%). All were settled correctly, confirming the model’s accuracy on the total-goals and foul-count predictions despite missing the home win call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montpellier win✗ Miss
55.8%
Avg Implied 53.5% · @ 1.75
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Dafabet
1.79
Betfair
1.75
Draw✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.50
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Unibet
3.55
Boulogne win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.70
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Pinnacle
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Dafabet
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.55
1.18
1.21
0.58
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
0.82
1.56
1.33
1.08
0.46
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.43
1.50
0.50
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Boulogne) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boulogne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.33
1.87
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.80
1.60
3.20
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.30
1.20
1.20
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.34-0.6%
Under 1.5
30.6%
@ 3.12+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
BetVictor
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Betfair
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.0%
@ 2.08-3.4%
Under 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.73+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Betfair
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.83
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.78
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.3%
@ 3.70-4.0%
Under 3.5
78.7%
@ 1.25+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.07
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
Betano
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
@ 1.93-4.2%
No
56.1%
@ 1.79+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.91
No
10Bet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.9%@ 5.92+6.3%
1-1
12.7%@ 6.44+5.8%
2-0
12.0%@ 7.31+5.9%
0-0 ✓
10.6%@ 8.72+5.5%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.68+3.4%
3-0
6.3%@ 12.77+2.9%
0-1
6.1%@ 10.81+2.0%
3-1
4.9%@ 13.57+1.6%
Montpellier goals ↓
Boulogne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.1%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.2%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.3%
4.9%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montpellier goals (down), columns = Boulogne goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Montpellier is 0.44 points better than Boulogne in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Montpellier is 0.17 goals better than Boulogne in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Montpellier is 0.56 goals better than Boulogne in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Montpellier is 6.6 percentage points better than Boulogne in terms of average possession (52% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Montpellier
For 5.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.3 · Against 14.3 · Total 31.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boulogne
For 2.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montpellier
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
9.9
4.0
4.4
3.8
30.0
31.7
28.7
vs Stronger (3)
9.7
9.0
10.0
3.3
2.0
4.0
25.3
25.0
25.5
vs Similar (36)
9.8
9.8
9.8
4.1
4.8
3.6
29.9
31.9
28.4
vs Weaker (11)
8.6
6.8
10.4
4.0
3.6
4.3
31.9
32.6
31.2
% over line
50%
48%
52%
64%
62%
66%
96%
100%
93%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
36%
38%
34%
4%
0%
7%
This opponent (Boulogne) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boulogne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
8.6
7.9
9.3
3.9
3.8
4.0
28.4
27.2
29.6
vs Stronger (13)
8.4
7.3
9.5
4.1
4.3
3.8
28.3
25.8
30.8
vs Similar (31)
8.7
8.1
9.3
4.0
3.6
4.3
28.4
27.7
29.1
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
37%
29%
45%
60%
57%
64%
90%
86%
95%
% under line
63%
71%
55%
40%
43%
36%
10%
14%
5%
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.4
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
Montpellier
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Metz
9.5
PAU
9.4
Nantes
9.3
Dijon
9.3
Sochaux
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.1
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.7
Boulogne
8.6
Dunkerque
8.6
Annecy
8.5
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.7
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Rodez
4.1
Reims
4.1
Laval
4.0
Nancy
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Clermont Foot
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Metz
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Dijon
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Annecy
28.5
Boulogne
28.4
Laval
28.2
Guingamp
27.7
Dijon
27.6
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.4
Sochaux
26.2
PAU
25.9
Dunkerque
25.9
Grenoble
25.8
Rodez
25.8
Reims
24.7
Metz
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.9%
@ 2.34+4.5%
Under 9.5
56.1%
@ 1.52-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.5%
@ 1.55+2.8%
Under 3.5
38.5%
@ 2.20-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
Under
Superbet
2.20
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.7%
Under 21.5
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Montpellier or Draw✓ Hit
83.2%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.16
Edge
+2.8%
56%
27%
17%
covers Montpellier + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Montpellier or Boulogne✗ Miss
72.6%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.4%
56%
27%
17%
covers Montpellier + Boulogne
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Draw or Boulogne✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 2.06
Edge
-1.3%
56%
27%
17%
covers Draw + Boulogne
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.20
SBO
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Montpellier over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.6%
@ 1.18+0.5%
Under
20.4%
@ 4.45-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.55
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Montpellier over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 1.94-0.9%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.80+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Montpellier over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 3.97-2.0%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.22+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Montpellier over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.92-2.7%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Boulogne over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
53.6%
@ 1.61-4.2%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.20+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Boulogne over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 4.08-4.9%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.21+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.42
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Boulogne over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 11.71-3.8%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.50
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
11.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Boulogne over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 34.50-2.1%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
40.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Montpellier, so a minus line means Montpellier give that many goals of a start and Boulogne receive them. At -1, Montpellier must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Montpellier win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Montpellier)Actual: Boulogne
Montpellier -2
13.0%
@ 6.28-1.2%
Draw -2
17.6%
@ 4.85-0.8%
Boulogne +2
69.3%
@ 1.33+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Superbet
6.30
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Unibet
4.60
Away
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Montpellier)Actual: Boulogne
Montpellier -1
30.7%
@ 3.02+0.9%
Draw -1
25.1%
@ 3.41-1.2%
Boulogne +1
44.2%
@ 2.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.88
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Away
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Montpellier)Actual: Montpellier
Montpellier +1
83.2%
@ 1.16+7.2%
Draw +1
11.5%
@ 5.75-3.8%
Boulogne -1
5.3%
@ 10.29-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
4.15
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.45
Handicap +2 (Montpellier)Actual: Montpellier
Montpellier +2
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Draw +2
4.1%
@ 15.00-2.1%
Boulogne -2
1.2%
@ 36.00-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
28.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.64
0.64
0.37
0.16
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.41
0.78
0.78
0.38
0.15
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Boulogne) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boulogne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.40
0.93
0.13
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.80
1.00
1.60
0.40
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.05
0.65
0.10
0.60
0.00
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.41+3.8%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 2.71-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.42
Under
10Bet
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.98+1.5%
Under 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.36-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.21
Betano
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Superbet
3.05
Under
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.7%
@ 7.76-1.3%
Under 2.5
89.3%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
54.0%
@ 1.80+2.4%
Under
46.0%
@ 1.92-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 5.02-1.0%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.14+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Betano
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.92-3.3%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Boulogne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.3%
@ 2.83-0.5%
Under
67.7%
@ 1.38+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Betano
2.92
Superbet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Unibet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Boulogne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 10.45-2.9%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.50
10Bet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Boulogne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 50.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Montpellier
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.91
0.55
0.84
0.42
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.41
0.78
0.56
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.29
1.50
0.50
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Boulogne) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boulogne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.93
0.93
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.60
1.60
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.65
1.10
0.60
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.5%
@ 1.27+5.1%
Under 0.5
21.5%
@ 3.51-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.58
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.7%
@ 2.26+0.4%
Under 1.5
58.3%
@ 1.59-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Unibet
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 5.03-1.6%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.15+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
64.0%
@ 1.56+4.3%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.31-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Under
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.20
Montpellier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 3.71+0.6%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.23-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.98
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Montpellier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 9.54-2.7%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Boulogne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.33-1.4%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.54+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Boulogne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 8.02-4.0%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.05+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Boulogne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 22.75-3.0%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.2%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.5%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.0%
1.21
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
1.27
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.7%
1.25
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.27
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.3%
1.19
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.5%
1.23
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.4%
1.27
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.6%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
-1.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Montpellier
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yael Mouanga33%
Nicolas Pays25%
Yanis Issoufou25%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Laciné Megnan-Pave0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daylam Meddah67%
Yael Mouanga67%
Naoufel El Hannach33%
Gregory Ayem33%
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Nordan Mukiele25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Laciné Megnan-Pave50%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Boulogne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Abdel Hbouch25%
Julien Boyer0%
Jonas Martin0%
Demba Thiam0%
Theo Epailly0%
Joffrey Bultel0%
Benjamin Besic0%
Théo Brusco0%
Blondy Nna Noukeu0%
Adrien Pinot0%
Aurelien Platret0%
Nolan Binet0%
Aymane Nassiri0%
Antoine Kerriou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Benjamin Besic67%
Demba Thiam25%
Abdel Hbouch25%
Joffrey Bultel25%
Théo Brusco25%
Nolan Binet25%
Julien Boyer0%
Jonas Martin0%
Theo Epailly0%
Blondy Nna Noukeu0%
Adrien Pinot0%
Aurelien Platret0%
Aymane Nassiri0%
Antoine Kerriou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Julien Boyer0%
Jonas Martin0%
Demba Thiam0%
Abdel Hbouch0%
Theo Epailly0%
Joffrey Bultel0%
Benjamin Besic0%
Théo Brusco0%
Blondy Nna Noukeu0%
Adrien Pinot0%
Aurelien Platret0%
Nolan Binet0%
Aymane Nassiri0%
Antoine Kerriou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Abdel Hbouch50%
Benjamin Besic33%
Julien Boyer0%
Jonas Martin0%
Demba Thiam0%
Theo Epailly0%
Joffrey Bultel0%
Théo Brusco0%
Blondy Nna Noukeu0%
Adrien Pinot0%
Aurelien Platret0%
Nolan Binet0%
Aymane Nassiri0%
Antoine Kerriou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Montpellier's squad is €21m more valuable than Boulogne's (€29m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Montpellier's attack is €9m more valuable than Boulogne's (€11m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Montpellier's midfield is €3m more valuable than Boulogne's (€6m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Montpellier's defence is €9m more valuable than Boulogne's (€12m vs €3m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Saint Etienne
Reims
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes