The match between Motor Lublin and Piast Gliwice is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 41% for Motor to win, 27% for a draw and 32% for Piast to triumph. The expected total goals is 2.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.9% chance. Motor, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Piast, on the road, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded versus this tier. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (98.2% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3% with a 4% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.9% with a 5% edge). Both sides have been drawing their last matches, 1-1 against Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa respectively, adding to the uncertainty.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Motor Lublin’s home form, noted as coming off a defeat, could not withstand Piast Gliwice’s winning run. The final score was 0-2, an away win that contradicted the model’s favourite, a home win at 42%. The model’s call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.8%, and Under 5.5 hit at 94.9%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motor Lublin win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.27
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.38
Dafabet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Piast Gliwice win✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.86
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.06
Dafabet
2.95
Betfair
2.90
Superbet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motor Lublin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.57
1.40
1.27
1.33
1.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.00
0.80
1.20
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.38
1.70
1.30
1.55
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Piast Gliwice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Piast Gliwice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.38
1.50
1.43
1.57
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.40
1.00
1.20
1.20
1.60
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.60
1.55
1.64
1.56
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
@ 1.19+0.6%
Under 1.5
21.5%
@ 4.22-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.62
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.65-2.6%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 2.13+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.66-3.8%
Under 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.45+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.67
Superbet
2.65
Under
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
@ 1.55-1.7%
No
41.9%
@ 2.30+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
No
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.57+6.1%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.53+3.7%
1-0
7.9%@ 9.25+3.0%
1-2
7.6%@ 9.57+2.9%
0-0
7.1%@ 12.12+3.4%
2-0
6.9%@ 11.75+3.1%
0-1
6.5%@ 10.26+2.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.01+1.8%
Motor Lublin goals ↓
Piast Gliwice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
6.5%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.9%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.0%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motor Lublin goals (down), columns = Piast Gliwice goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Motor Lublin is 0.33 points worse than Piast Gliwice in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Motor Lublin is 0.67 goals worse than Piast Gliwice in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Motor Lublin is 0.50 goals better than Piast Gliwice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Motor Lublin is 10.7 percentage points worse than Piast Gliwice in terms of average possession (46% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motor Lublin
For 3.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Piast Gliwice
For 6.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motor Lublin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.5
10.6
4.5
4.3
4.7
25.3
24.5
26.0
vs Stronger (10)
9.4
9.2
9.8
2.7
2.2
3.5
23.2
21.3
26.0
vs Similar (40)
10.2
9.6
10.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
25.8
25.6
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
50%
60%
54%
50%
58%
82%
79%
84%
% under line
45%
50%
40%
46%
50%
42%
18%
21%
16%
This opponent (Piast Gliwice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Piast Gliwice
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
3.5
3.8
3.2
24.3
22.9
25.8
vs Stronger (13)
9.1
8.4
9.6
3.7
5.0
2.6
23.1
22.4
23.6
vs Similar (36)
10.3
10.7
9.9
3.5
3.4
3.6
24.7
23.0
26.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
43%
38%
48%
44%
52%
36%
66%
54%
78%
% under line
57%
62%
52%
56%
48%
64%
34%
46%
22%
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
11.2
Wieczysta Kraków
11.0
Pogon Szczecin
10.6
Zaglebie Lubin
10.3
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Lech Poznan
10.1
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Radomiak Radom
10.0
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Piast Gliwice
9.9
GKS Katowice
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.5
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.3
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.9
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.5
Zaglebie Lubin
4.5
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Pogon Szczecin
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
GKS Katowice
3.8
Wieczysta Kraków
3.8
Piast Gliwice
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.8
Widzew Łódź
26.5
Wieczysta Kraków
26.5
Jagiellonia
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Korona Kielce
25.6
Wisla Krakow
25.4
Motor Lublin
25.3
Cracovia Krakow
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.5
Lech Poznan
23.9
GKS Katowice
23.8
Pogon Szczecin
23.6
Gornik Zabrze
22.9
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.4%
@ 1.76-4.4%
Under 9.5
51.6%
@ 1.97+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.76+6.2%
Under 3.5
41.2%
@ 1.95-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Under
Superbet
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.2%
Under 21.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Motor Lublin or Draw✗ Miss
71.3%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.38
Edge
+3.9%
42%
27%
31%
covers Motor Lublin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Motor Lublin or Piast Gliwice✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.9%
42%
27%
31%
covers Motor Lublin + Piast Gliwice
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Piast Gliwice✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.58
Edge
-2.0%
42%
27%
31%
covers Draw + Piast Gliwice
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.9%
@ 1.19-0.8%
Under
23.1%
@ 4.16+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.1%
@ 1.98-3.9%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.76+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Under
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 4.08-4.4%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.22
1xBet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Motor Lublin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 9.26-4.0%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Piast Gliwice over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.7%
@ 1.26-5.0%
Under
31.3%
@ 3.53+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Piast Gliwice over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.3%
@ 2.29-8.4%
Under
67.7%
@ 1.57+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Under
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Piast Gliwice over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 5.15-6.9%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.13+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.25
BetVictor
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Piast Gliwice over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 11.62-5.1%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Motor Lublin, so a minus line means Motor Lublin give that many goals of a start and Piast Gliwice receive them. At -1, Motor Lublin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Motor Lublin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Piast Gliwice
Motor Lublin -2
8.4%
@ 8.67-1.9%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 6.34-0.8%
Piast Gliwice +2
78.4%
@ 1.18+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Away
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Piast Gliwice
Motor Lublin -1
21.6%
@ 4.09-0.2%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 4.05-0.6%
Piast Gliwice +1
57.0%
@ 1.59+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Away
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Handicap +1 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Piast Gliwice
Motor Lublin +1
71.3%
@ 1.39+7.0%
Draw +1
16.6%
@ 4.61-2.8%
Piast Gliwice -1
12.1%
@ 5.49-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.25
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Handicap +2 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Draw
Motor Lublin +2
87.9%
@ 1.11+7.5%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 7.50-3.7%
Piast Gliwice -2
3.8%
@ 11.67-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motor Lublin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.67
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.40
0.80
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.76
1.00
0.60
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Piast Gliwice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Piast Gliwice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.31
0.75
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.00
1.00
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.60
0.45
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.9%
@ 1.31-2.1%
Under 0.5
31.1%
@ 3.20+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.42-5.8%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.50+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Unibet
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.0%
@ 5.72-6.2%
Under 2.5
90.0%
@ 1.10+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 1.84-2.5%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.87+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 5.31-5.1%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.13+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 13.50-4.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Piast Gliwice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.1%
@ 2.03-5.8%
Under
59.9%
@ 1.72+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
Piast Gliwice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 6.21-4.0%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.09+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
Piast Gliwice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 16.00-4.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motor Lublin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.62
0.70
0.70
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Piast Gliwice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Piast Gliwice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.06
0.75
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.70
1.00
0.20
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.00
1.09
1.00
1.11
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.18-2.6%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 4.42+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 1.85-8.7%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.85+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 3.66-9.4%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.24+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.2%
@ 1.61-1.4%
Under
43.8%
@ 2.19+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 3.82-6.0%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.22+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 9.67-5.4%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Piast Gliwice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.1%
@ 1.71-6.2%
Under
51.9%
@ 2.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
Piast Gliwice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.7%
@ 4.47-7.1%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.17+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Piast Gliwice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 11.38-4.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
1.11
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-
-
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.13
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.4%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.24
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
1.31
Superbet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.5%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
76.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.18
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.7%
1.36
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.3%
1.38
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+7.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motor Lublin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Karol Czubak50%
Makan Aïko17%
Mbaye Ndiaye17%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Christopher Simon0%
Filip Luberecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivo Rodrigues33%
Paskal Meyer33%
Tin Plavotić25%
Marek Kristián Bartoš20%
Bartosz Bereszyński17%
Makan Aïko17%
Fábio Ronaldo17%
Mbaye Ndiaye17%
Christopher Simon17%
Filip Luberecki17%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Thomas Santos0%
Karol Czubak0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivo Rodrigues67%
Mbaye Ndiaye33%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Karol Czubak0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Makan Aïko0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Christopher Simon0%
Filip Luberecki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Karol Czubak67%
Mbaye Ndiaye50%
Christopher Simon17%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Makan Aïko0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Filip Luberecki0%
Piast Gliwice
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Sanca40%
Szczepan Mucha33%
Jakub Łabojko20%
Hugo Vallejo20%
Juande Rivas20%
Samuel Ntamack Ndimba20%
Andreas Katsantonis0%
Jason Lokilo0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Jakub Czerwiński0%
Jorge Félix0%
Ema Twumasi0%
Domen Gril0%
Filip Borowski0%
Ivan Lima0%
Jakub Lewicki0%
Oskar Lesniak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Quentin Boisgard40%
Ivan Lima25%
Ema Twumasi20%
Juande Rivas20%
Leandro Sanca20%
Oskar Lesniak20%
Andreas Katsantonis0%
Jason Lokilo0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Jakub Czerwiński0%
Jorge Félix0%
Hugo Vallejo0%
Domen Gril0%
Samuel Ntamack Ndimba0%
Filip Borowski0%
Szczepan Mucha0%
Jakub Lewicki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Lima50%
Ema Twumasi20%
Jakub Lewicki20%
Andreas Katsantonis0%
Jason Lokilo0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Jakub Czerwiński0%
Jorge Félix0%
Hugo Vallejo0%
Domen Gril0%
Juande Rivas0%
Samuel Ntamack Ndimba0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Filip Borowski0%
Szczepan Mucha0%
Oskar Lesniak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Lima50%
Jason Lokilo33%
Szczepan Mucha33%
Leandro Sanca20%
Andreas Katsantonis0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Jakub Czerwiński0%
Jorge Félix0%
Hugo Vallejo0%
Ema Twumasi0%
Domen Gril0%
Juande Rivas0%
Samuel Ntamack Ndimba0%
Filip Borowski0%
Jakub Lewicki0%
Oskar Lesniak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Motor Lublin's squad is €10m more valuable than Piast Gliwice's (€19m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Motor Lublin's attack is €6m more valuable than Piast Gliwice's (€10m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Motor Lublin's midfield is €2m more valuable than Piast Gliwice's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Motor Lublin's defence is €2m more valuable than Piast Gliwice's (€6m vs €4m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa