This match between Nacional and Estoril in the Portugal: Primeira Liga is finely balanced, with Nacional coming off a draw against Santa Clara, while Estoril drew against Famalicao. Nacional has a 39% chance of winning, Estoril has a 32% chance, and the draw has a 28% chance. The model's selection is a home win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%. Nacional has scored an average of 1.43 goals at home, conceding 1.14 goals, while Estoril has scored 2 goals away, conceding 1.44 goals.
The model suggests taking Over 21.5 fouls (84.6%), Over 3.5 cards (78%), Over 1.5 goals (76%, with an edge of 2%), and Under 3.5 (71.9%, with an edge of 2%). Nacional has a 39% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 32% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Nacional's win extends their run of form, following a 2-0 victory over Estoril. The final score saw Nacional claim a 2-0 win, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, Nacional win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's call was spot on, as Nacional were the favourites.
The model's selection of over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 84.2%, while over 1.5 hit at 81.0%. Over 3.5 cards also hit, with a probability of 78.2%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 24%, but the actual score was 2-0, resulting in a home win.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Nacional winâ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.76
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.92
1xBet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betano
2.87
Dafabet
2.85
Drawâ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.26
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.35
1xBet
3.32
Unibet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Estoril winâ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied 37.2% · @ 2.52
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.60
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Pinnacle
2.58
✠2. Goal Analysis
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.40
1.50
1.07
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.50
0.83
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.53
1.35
2.00
1.12
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.67
1.80
1.67
1.53
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.75
2.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.86
1.57
1.82
1.55
1.90
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
@ 1.27+7.4%
Under 1.5
19.0%
@ 3.54-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.89+7.3%
Under 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.89-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.90
Under
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betfair
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
@ 3.16+5.4%
Under 3.5
65.0%
@ 1.32-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
BetVictor
3.20
888Sport
3.20
Under
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.2%
@ 1.66+5.3%
No
38.8%
@ 2.11-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Betfair
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
No
Betano
2.20
888Sport
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 5.92+4.8%
2-1
8.5%@ 9.41+3.7%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.87+3.2%
1-0
6.5%@ 8.74+1.4%
0-1
6.3%@ 8.30+0.9%
2-2
6.3%@ 11.95+2.5%
0-0
6.2%@ 9.99+1.7%
2-0 â
5.8%@ 13.23+2.4%
Nacional goals ↓
Estoril goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.3%
5.5%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.5%
12%
8.3%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.5%
6.3%
3.1%
1.1%
3
2.9%
4.3%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Estoril goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Nacional is 0.15 points worse than Estoril in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.15).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Nacional is 0.50 goals worse than Estoril in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.59).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Nacional is 0.35 goals better than Estoril in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.68).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Nacional is 6.6 percentage points worse than Estoril in terms of average possession (46% vs 53%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nacional or Drawâ Hit
64.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
36%
covers Nacional + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nacional or Estorilâ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
36%
covers Nacional + Estoril
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Estorilâ Miss
62.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
36%
covers Draw + Estoril
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.43
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.00
0.58
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.71
0.75
0.62
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.50
1.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.81
0.82
0.82
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.07
0.57
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.92
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
1.25
0.50
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Estoril) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estoril
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.07
0.60
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.76
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estoril over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+7.4%
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
1.44
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
-
+8.7%
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Nacional's squad is €23m less valuable than Estoril's (€20m vs €42m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Nacional's attack is €18m less valuable than Estoril's (€6m vs €24m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Nacional's midfield is €3m less valuable than Estoril's (€5m vs €8m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Nacional's defence is €2m less valuable than Estoril's (€9m vs €10m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Casa Pia