PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Nafta vs Ilirija Result & Analysis

Date: 19/10/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Nafta
Nafta
Vs
61%
22%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W10W42W22D10W20W51W20W31W20WH·SLO08/08A·RUD15/08H·KRK24/08A·DRA01/09H·GOR06/09A·KRŠ13/09H·JES20/09A·DEK27/09H·TAB04/10A·BIS11/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.532.001.671.071.40
vs Stronger (8)0.752.250.752.000.752.50
vs Similar (15)1.471.532.001.750.861.29
vs Weaker (7)2.570.713.671.001.750.50
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L03L30W02L13L12L11D22D22D11DA·KRŠ10/08H·BRI16/08A·JES24/08H·TRI03/09A·DEK06/09H·SLO14/09A·TAB21/09H·RUD27/09A·BIS04/10H·KRK12/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.700.872.071.131.33
vs Stronger (8)0.623.120.603.600.672.33
vs Similar (21)1.051.241.001.301.091.18
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.6%
Under 3.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.7%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
Nafta goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
01234
05.0%3.4%2.3%0.8%0.2%
17.9%10%4.9%1.7%0.4%
29.4%9.9%5.2%1.8%0.5%
36.7%7.1%3.7%1.3%0.3%
43.6%3.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Nafta is 1.60 points better than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.90).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Nafta is 0.90 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Nafta is 0.97 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W21W11D00D00D11D10W10W10WH·SLO08/08A·RUD15/08H·KRK24/08A·DRA01/09H·GOR06/09A·KRŠ13/09H·JES20/09A·DEK27/09H·TAB04/10A·BIS11/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.670.930.470.47
vs Stronger (8)0.121.000.001.250.250.75
vs Similar (15)0.600.670.750.880.430.43
vs Weaker (7)1.000.431.330.670.750.25
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W01L13L01L00D02L20W01LA·KRŠ10/08H·BRI16/08A·JES24/08H·TRI03/09A·DEK06/09H·SLO14/09A·TAB21/09H·RUD27/09A·BIS04/10H·KRK12/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.770.271.000.470.53
vs Stronger (8)0.251.380.401.600.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.380.570.200.700.550.45
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D21W11D10W20W40W10W21W10WH·SLO08/08A·RUD15/08H·KRK24/08A·DRA01/09H·GOR06/09A·KRŠ13/09H·JES20/09A·DEK27/09H·TAB04/10A·BIS11/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.831.330.730.600.93
vs Stronger (8)0.621.250.750.750.501.75
vs Similar (15)0.870.871.250.880.430.86
vs Weaker (7)1.570.292.330.331.000.25
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L20W01L00D11D11D20W02L10WA·KRŠ10/08H·BRI16/08A·JES24/08H·TRI03/09A·DEK06/09H·SLO14/09A·TAB21/09H·RUD27/09A·BIS04/10H·KRK12/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.930.601.070.670.80
vs Stronger (8)0.381.750.202.000.671.33
vs Similar (21)0.670.670.800.600.550.73
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Nafta's squad is €1m more valuable than Ilirija's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Nafta and Ilirija have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Nafta and Ilirija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Nafta and Ilirija have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
NAF wins
0
Draws
2
ILI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Ilirija · H/A from NAF
DateH/AGameScore
18/11/23AIlirija Vs NAF2-1
09/11/23HNAF Vs Ilirija2-0
02/03/23AIlirija Vs NAF2-0
19/08/22HNAF Vs Ilirija3-0

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/10/25ABistrica Vs NAF0-2
04/10/25HNAF Vs Tabor Sežana3-1
27/09/25ADekani Vs NAF0-2
20/09/25HNAF Vs Jesenice5-1
13/09/25AKrško Vs NAF0-2
06/09/25HNAF Vs Gorica1-0
01/09/25ADravinja Vs NAF2-2
24/08/25HNAF Vs Krka4-2
15/08/25ARudar Vs NAF0-1
08/08/25HNAF Vs Slovan Ljubljana2-0

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/10/25HILI Vs Krka1-1
04/10/25ABistrica Vs ILI2-2
27/09/25HILI Vs Rudar2-2
21/09/25ATabor Sežana Vs ILI1-1
14/09/25HILI Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-2
06/09/25ADekani Vs ILI3-1
03/09/25HILI Vs Triglav0-2
24/08/25AJesenice Vs ILI0-3
16/08/25HILI Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-3
10/08/25AKrško Vs ILI3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.20
HomeWWWWW1.44
AwayWDWWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.783.122.44
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.181.520.84
Conceded1.601.601.60
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDD0.90
HomeLLLDD0.84
AwayLWLDD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals2.722.722.72
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.041.001.08
Conceded1.681.721.64
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches