Newcastle hosts Liverpool in the Premier League on August 23. The visitors are in good form, having drawn their last outing against Brentford, and they're coming off a draw. This match has all the makings of an open and high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.5 goals. The most likely total number of goals is 3, and the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.3%. Newcastle has a strong home record, averaging 2 goals scored and 1 conceded at home, particularly against stronger opponents. Liverpool, on the other hand, has been scoring and conceding fewer goals on the road, averaging 1.73 and 1.64 respectively against weaker opponents. The model predicts a 41% chance of an away win, with the most likely match result being Liverpool's victory. The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 86.9% probability and Home or Away with a 76.7% probability. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 41%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Liverpool, did not deliver as the game finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streaks of draws. The model had tipped an away win with a 40 % probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested selection was a hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3 %, Under 7.5 at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.5 %, Under 6.5 at 92.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 89.8 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 88.1 %. The match lived up to the model’s low-scoring narrative, confirming the predicted 3-goal total was unlikely.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newcastle win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.87
Edge
+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.16
Pinnacle
4.13
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.10
Betano
4.05
Draw✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.82
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.95
Marathonbet
3.94
Betfair
3.90
Liverpool win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.90
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.20
Betano
1.93
Dafabet
1.91
Unibet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.80
1.88
1.75
1.43
1.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.83
1.50
2.08
1.67
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.40
0.87
1.33
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.67
1.40
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.33
1.00
2.90
0.70
1.62
1.38
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
@ 1.16+6.0%
Under 1.5
12.7%
@ 5.03-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Unibet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.9%
@ 1.55+6.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
@ 2.44-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Under
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.56
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.4%
@ 2.41+6.3%
Under 3.5
53.6%
@ 1.60-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
2.35
SBO
2.35
Pinnacle
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
SBO
1.64
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.2%
@ 1.49+6.4%
No
30.9%
@ 2.51-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
No
Unibet
2.63
888Sport
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.29+3.3%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.12+2.2%
2-1
7.8%@ 11.88+3.6%
2-2 ✓
7.1%@ 11.03+2.5%
1-3
5.0%@ 12.91+1.1%
0-2
4.9%@ 10.83+0.3%
0-1
4.5%@ 10.01-0.5%
3-1
4.4%@ 24.95+2.4%
Newcastle goals ↓
Liverpool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.5%
4.9%
2.9%
1.3%
1
4.2%
10%
8.3%
5.0%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.8%
7.1%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.5%
4.4%
4.0%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Liverpool goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Newcastle is 0.29 points worse than Liverpool in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Newcastle is 0.26 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.66).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Newcastle is 0.05 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Newcastle is 7.1 percentage points worse than Liverpool in terms of average possession (52% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newcastle
For 3.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liverpool
For 5.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.3
10.8
4.2
4.5
3.8
21.6
22.8
20.3
vs Stronger (11)
11.8
14.0
10.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
22.5
23.4
21.8
vs Similar (36)
10.7
10.5
10.9
4.4
4.8
3.9
21.6
23.1
19.6
vs Weaker (3)
13.3
15.0
12.5
2.0
1.0
2.5
18.7
14.0
21.0
% over line
64%
69%
58%
60%
65%
54%
52%
62%
42%
% under line
36%
31%
42%
40%
35%
46%
48%
38%
58%
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.9
9.6
3.5
3.0
4.0
21.0
21.2
20.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.7
8.9
8.6
4.0
3.1
4.6
23.1
24.0
22.5
vs Weaker (29)
11.4
12.0
10.6
3.1
2.9
3.4
19.5
19.6
19.4
% over line
56%
64%
48%
48%
44%
52%
42%
40%
44%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
52%
56%
48%
58%
60%
56%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.2
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.1
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Tottenham
23.0
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
22.0
Leeds
21.9
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.2%
@ 1.50-2.7%
Under 9.5
40.8%
@ 2.43+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.41
Superbet
2.40
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.3%
@ 1.54-2.2%
Under 3.5
41.7%
@ 2.36+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
Superbet
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.9%
@ 1.88+0.5%
Under 21.5
50.1%
@ 1.84-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.80
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newcastle or Draw✓ Hit
65.0%
Avg Implied 49.8% · @ 1.89
Edge
+15.2%
36%
24%
40%
covers Newcastle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
SBO
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Newcastle or Liverpool✗ Miss
76.7%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
+1.5%
36%
24%
40%
covers Newcastle + Liverpool
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Draw or Liverpool✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-16.6%
36%
24%
40%
covers Draw + Liverpool
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newcastle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.4%
@ 1.29+13.2%
Under
14.6%
@ 3.35-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.48
Unibet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
Newcastle over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.4%
@ 2.44+18.9%
Under
42.6%
@ 1.52-18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Newcastle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 5.66+13.8%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.12-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Newcastle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 13.25+5.8%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.02-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Unibet
11.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Liverpool over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
@ 1.11-1.0%
Under
17.2%
@ 5.74+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Liverpool over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.5%
@ 1.63-5.2%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.21+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Liverpool over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.8%
@ 2.96-5.7%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.36+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Liverpool over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 6.10-5.1%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.10+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.20
888Sport
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Newcastle, so a minus line means Newcastle give that many goals of a start and Liverpool receive them. At -1, Newcastle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newcastle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newcastle)Actual: Liverpool
Newcastle -2
10.6%
@ 18.80+5.7%
Draw -2
12.7%
@ 11.00+4.3%
Liverpool +2
76.6%
@ 1.07-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
23.00
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Unibet
14.00
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Away
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Newcastle)Actual: Liverpool
Newcastle -1
23.4%
@ 7.78+11.7%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 5.68+2.4%
Liverpool +1
58.3%
@ 1.25-14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Away
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Betfair
1.20
Handicap +1 (Newcastle)Actual: Newcastle
Newcastle +1
65.0%
@ 1.85+15.5%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 3.98-6.3%
Liverpool -1
18.3%
@ 3.32-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.75
Away
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Handicap +2 (Newcastle)Actual: Newcastle
Newcastle +2
81.7%
@ 1.30+10.8%
Draw +2
10.6%
@ 5.79-5.3%
Liverpool -2
7.7%
@ 6.98-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Away
10Bet
12.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.88
0.62
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.44
0.33
0.33
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.61
0.92
0.75
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
1.20
0.20
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.20
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.25-1.4%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.71+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.4%
@ 2.20-2.4%
Under 1.5
59.6%
@ 1.65+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.29
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Superbet
1.67
SBO
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.1%
@ 4.88-3.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
@ 1.16+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 2.09+10.2%
Under
45.3%
@ 1.68-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 6.62+1.8%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.07-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.60
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 17.75-2.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Liverpool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.1%
@ 1.63-8.2%
Under
50.9%
@ 2.19+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Liverpool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 3.99-11.3%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.21+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.00
Unibet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Liverpool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 9.62-7.1%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
1.00
1.12
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.22
0.33
1.67
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.89
1.17
0.92
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.80
1.20
0.67
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.33
0.67
1.40
0.50
1.25
0.88
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.8%
@ 1.15+0.7%
Under 0.5
17.2%
@ 5.26-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Superbet
5.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.3%
@ 1.72-2.5%
Under 1.5
47.7%
@ 2.09+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Unibet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
25.7%
@ 3.23-3.4%
Under 2.5
74.3%
@ 1.32+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.40
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.18
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.6%
@ 1.77+5.3%
Under
42.4%
@ 1.95-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.9%
@ 4.85+3.7%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.15-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 12.62-1.0%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.02+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Liverpool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.8%
@ 1.42-9.8%
Under
44.2%
@ 2.71+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.65
Liverpool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.7%
@ 2.92-8.1%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.36+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Liverpool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 7.20-7.5%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.06+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.21
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.3%
1.16
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.0%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-5.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.4%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.07
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
83.2%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.15
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.7%
1.30
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.4%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.29
-
+8.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.7%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-10.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.36
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
-
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
74.2%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.25
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
1.28
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
-0.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Elanga67%
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ramsey67%
Jacob Murphy33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Sven Botman33%
Lewis Miley33%
Sean Steur33%
Joe Willock0%
Amar Dedić0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amar Dedić67%
Yoane Wissa33%
Malick Thiaw33%
Joe Willock0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Liverpool · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Salah30%
Hugo Ekitiké30%
Dominik Szoboszlai25%
Alexander Isak18%
Cody Gakpo18%
Florian Wirtz15%
Virgil van Dijk13%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Andy Robertson9%
Federico Chiesa8%
Alexis Mac Allister7%
Rio Ngumoha7%
Curtis Jones6%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Ibrahima Konaté4%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Bradley33%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Joe Gomez18%
Ibrahima Konaté18%
Alexis Mac Allister17%
Ryan Gravenberch16%
Virgil van Dijk11%
Federico Chiesa11%
Miloš Kerkez11%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones8%
Cody Gakpo6%
Hugo Ekitiké5%
Alisson3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Andy Robertson3%
Mohamed Salah2%
Florian Wirtz2%
Alexander Isak0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Rio Ngumoha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Salah25%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Florian Wirtz12%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Hugo Ekitiké11%
Cody Gakpo10%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones6%
Joe Gomez6%
Andy Robertson6%
Federico Chiesa6%
Conor Bradley5%
Alexander Isak5%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Virgil van Dijk2%
Alisson0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Salah28%
Hugo Ekitiké23%
Dominik Szoboszlai21%
Cody Gakpo18%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Alexander Isak9%
Florian Wirtz8%
Virgil van Dijk4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Federico Chiesa3%
Miloš Kerkez2%
Ryan Gravenberch2%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Andy Robertson0%
Curtis Jones0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Jeremie Frimpong0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Newcastle's squad is €412m less valuable than Liverpool's (€568m vs €980m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Newcastle's attack is €284m less valuable than Liverpool's (€234m vs €518m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Newcastle's midfield is €77m less valuable than Liverpool's (€124m vs €201m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Newcastle's defence is €51m less valuable than Liverpool's (€210m vs €260m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham