Osasuna’s defensive solidity is highlighted by a 0.9 average conceded at home, while Getafe’s away average of 1.3 goals against similar opposition suggests a tight contest. The model projects a 46% chance of a home win, 31% draw, and 23% away win, making a home victory the clear favourite. With an expected 2.2 goals, the most likely total is 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Osasuna, having just secured a win, will look to maintain their 1.6 goals scored average, whereas Getafe, after a recent defeat, will aim to limit their 0.8 goals scored. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9% with a 5% edge, Under 5.5 at 97.6% with a 2% edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3% with a 5% edge.
Results analysis
Osasuna’s 1-0 win over Getafe extended their two-game winning run, confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The model had given the home side a 45% chance, and the result matched that forecast. The final score of 1-0 was a clean home victory. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 5.5 at 97.6%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%. All picks were settled and hit, underscoring the model’s accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Osasuna win✓ Hit
44.9%
Avg Implied 43.5% · @ 2.19
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.26
Dafabet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.90
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
Superbet
2.92
Getafe win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 4.02
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.20
1xBet
4.16
Bet365
4.10
Superbet
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Osasuna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.57
1.14
1.38
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.00
1.50
1.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.10
1.60
0.90
1.18
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
1.07
0.86
0.75
1.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.20
1.40
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.10
0.89
0.78
0.91
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.67+9.5%
Under 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.22-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
SBO
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
@ 3.02+7.5%
Under 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.37-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.22
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
@ 6.33+3.9%
Under 3.5
81.2%
@ 1.10-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
@ 2.40+6.3%
No
54.8%
@ 1.53-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
William Hil
2.40
10Bet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
No
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.75+6.3%
1-0 ✓
12.9%@ 4.81+3.4%
0-0
12.0%@ 5.47+3.6%
2-0
9.4%@ 8.41+4.0%
2-1
8.5%@ 9.66+3.8%
0-1
8.5%@ 7.41+2.3%
1-2
5.9%@ 14.15+2.6%
0-2
4.4%@ 17.84+1.9%
Osasuna goals ↓
Getafe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.5%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.4%
8.5%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.1%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Osasuna goals (down), columns = Getafe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Osasuna is 0.24 points worse than Getafe in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Valencia
1.21
Sevilla
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Osasuna is 0.32 goals better than Getafe in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 0.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Osasuna is 0.32 goals worse than Getafe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Osasuna is 6.8 percentage points better than Getafe in terms of average possession (47% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Osasuna
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Getafe
For 4.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 15.4 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Osasuna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.5
4.8
5.1
4.5
24.8
24.4
25.2
vs Stronger (13)
9.0
9.0
9.0
4.9
5.7
4.3
23.5
23.3
23.7
vs Similar (35)
9.0
8.7
9.3
4.8
4.9
4.8
25.3
24.8
25.9
vs Weaker (2)
13.5
-
13.5
3.0
-
3.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
41%
30%
50%
72%
78%
67%
78%
78%
77%
% under line
59%
70%
50%
28%
22%
33%
22%
22%
23%
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.0
9.5
5.4
5.0
5.8
29.4
29.6
29.3
vs Stronger (15)
8.7
8.1
9.3
5.4
4.2
6.7
28.2
28.1
28.3
vs Similar (34)
8.9
8.0
9.6
5.6
5.4
5.7
29.9
30.3
29.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
37%
26%
46%
78%
74%
81%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
63%
74%
54%
22%
26%
19%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.1
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.4%
@ 2.33+7.6%
Under 9.5
52.6%
@ 1.53-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.5%
@ 1.31+9.7%
Under 3.5
19.5%
@ 3.18-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.20
Under
Superbet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.13
Betano
2.95
Unibet
2.90
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.3%
Under 21.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Osasuna or Draw✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.0%
45%
31%
24%
covers Osasuna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Osasuna or Getafe✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied 67.8% · @ 1.39
Edge
+1.1%
45%
31%
24%
covers Osasuna + Getafe
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Draw or Getafe✗ Miss
55.0%
Avg Implied 56.2% · @ 1.68
Edge
-1.2%
45%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Getafe
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Osasuna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.6%
@ 1.38+4.9%
Under
27.4%
@ 2.89-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.02
Unibet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.84
Osasuna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 2.87+4.6%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.39-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Osasuna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 7.14+1.1%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.07-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Osasuna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 17.67-1.2%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Getafe over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
58.4%
@ 1.73+4.4%
Under
41.6%
@ 2.02-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
BetVictor
1.73
Under
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Getafe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 4.71+2.0%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.17-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Getafe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 13.14-1.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
1xBet
14.50
Marathonbet
14.50
Unibet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Getafe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 38.67-1.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
50.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Osasuna, so a minus line means Osasuna give that many goals of a start and Getafe receive them. At -1, Osasuna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Osasuna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Osasuna)Actual: Getafe
Osasuna -2
7.6%
@ 10.84-0.6%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 5.95-1.2%
Getafe +2
78.6%
@ 1.16+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Away
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Osasuna)Actual: Draw
Osasuna -1
21.4%
@ 4.57+1.6%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.42-2.8%
Getafe +1
55.0%
@ 1.68+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Draw
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Away
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Handicap +1 (Osasuna)Actual: Osasuna
Osasuna +1
76.1%
@ 1.23+2.3%
Draw +1
15.5%
@ 5.20-1.9%
Getafe -1
8.4%
@ 10.38-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.15
Unibet
5.00
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
Unibet
9.50
Handicap +2 (Osasuna)Actual: Osasuna
Osasuna +2
91.6%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Draw +2
6.3%
@ 11.83-1.6%
Getafe -2
2.1%
@ 35.33-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
10Bet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Osasuna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.48
0.50
0.40
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.29
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.35
0.33
0.22
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.3%
@ 1.66+9.7%
Under 0.5
33.7%
@ 2.17-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
SBO
1.71
Superbet
1.69
Under
William Hil
2.30
Pinnacle
2.23
SBO
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.9%
@ 4.20+6.6%
Under 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.21-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
7.9%
@ 12.20+0.1%
Under 2.5
92.1%
@ 1.03-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
BetVictor
14.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
13.00
William Hil
13.00
Under
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.04
William Hil
1.03
Bet365
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.8%
@ 2.30+3.4%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.56-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Osasuna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 7.62-0.9%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.06+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Osasuna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 20.50-2.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Getafe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 3.11+4.3%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.33-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.35
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Getafe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 11.25-1.5%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Getafe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 60.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Osasuna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
1.00
0.71
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.43
0.75
1.25
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.62
1.10
0.50
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
-
-
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Getafe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Getafe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.57
0.57
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.75
0.56
0.56
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.43+10.1%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 2.69-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.74
Marathonbet
2.74
Superbet
2.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.3%
@ 3.03+9.3%
Under 1.5
59.7%
@ 1.36-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
William Hil
3.00
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 7.78+2.5%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.06-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.8%
@ 1.94+5.8%
Under
46.2%
@ 1.79-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.75
Osasuna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 5.74+2.0%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.11-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.95
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Osasuna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 15.12-2.4%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Getafe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 2.51+6.4%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.47-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Getafe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 9.36-0.7%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.03+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
9.30
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Getafe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 26.50-1.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.6%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.04
William Hil
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.5%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.20
-
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.1%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
76.1%
1.24
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.1%
1.23
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.17
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.43
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+10.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.6%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-6.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Osasuna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Budimir67%
Kike Barja33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Raúl García de Haro0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Herrera67%
Kike Barja67%
Jon Moncayola33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Jorge Herrando33%
Iker Muñoz33%
Lucas Torró0%
Rubén García0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rubén García33%
Ante Budimir33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Getafe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Enes Ünal60%
Johan Mojica25%
Andrés García20%
Kiko Femenía0%
Orel Mangala0%
Abdel Abqar0%
David Soria0%
Djené0%
Borja Mayoral0%
Francho Serrano0%
Zaid Romero0%
Ramón Terrats0%
Martín Satriano0%
Saba Sazonov0%
Alberto Risco0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Borja Mayoral50%
Saba Sazonov50%
Orel Mangala40%
Djené40%
Abdel Abqar33%
Kiko Femenía25%
Johan Mojica25%
Enes Ünal20%
Zaid Romero20%
Martín Satriano20%
David Soria0%
Francho Serrano0%
Ramón Terrats0%
Andrés García0%
Alberto Risco0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Johan Mojica25%
Martín Satriano20%
Kiko Femenía0%
Orel Mangala0%
Abdel Abqar0%
David Soria0%
Djené0%
Borja Mayoral0%
Enes Ünal0%
Francho Serrano0%
Zaid Romero0%
Ramón Terrats0%
Saba Sazonov0%
Andrés García0%
Alberto Risco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ramón Terrats40%
Kiko Femenía0%
Orel Mangala0%
Abdel Abqar0%
David Soria0%
Djené0%
Borja Mayoral0%
Enes Ünal0%
Johan Mojica0%
Francho Serrano0%
Zaid Romero0%
Martín Satriano0%
Saba Sazonov0%
Andrés García0%
Alberto Risco0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Osasuna's squad is €19m less valuable than Getafe's (€71m vs €90m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Osasuna's attack is €11m less valuable than Getafe's (€25m vs €36m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Osasuna's midfield is €16m less valuable than Getafe's (€12m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Osasuna's defence is €7m more valuable than Getafe's (€33m vs €26m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga