This opponent (Bastia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.63
1.00
1.00
0.60
2.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.86
0.86
1.14
0.57
2.57
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.50
1.12
0.88
0.17
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.9%
@ 2.15-3.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.68+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-0 ✓
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
PAU goals ↓
Bastia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.8%
6.1%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.2%
7.9%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PAU goals (down), columns = Bastia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Toulouse
2.08
Ajaccio
1.97
Auxerre
1.95
Paris FC
1.84
Sochaux
1.79
Guingamp
1.53
Le Havre
1.32
Caen
1.32
Nimes
1.29
PAU
1.29
Dijon
1.24
Niort
1.21
Bastia
1.21
Valenciennes
1.16
Amiens
1.16
Grenoble
1.16
Rodez
1.13
Rouen
1.05
Dunkerque
0.82
Nancy
0.71
PAU is 0.08 points better than Bastia in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Toulouse
2.16
Auxerre
1.61
Paris FC
1.42
Guingamp
1.37
Caen
1.34
Dijon
1.26
Sochaux
1.24
Nimes
1.16
Amiens
1.13
PAU
1.08
Niort
1.03
Ajaccio
1.03
Le Havre
1.00
Bastia
1.00
Valenciennes
0.89
Rouen
0.87
Nancy
0.84
Rodez
0.84
Grenoble
0.84
Dunkerque
0.74
PAU is 0.08 goals better than Bastia in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajaccio
0.50
Toulouse
0.87
Sochaux
0.89
Paris FC
0.92
Bastia
0.95
Auxerre
1.03
Le Havre
1.08
Amiens
1.08
Niort
1.11
Caen
1.11
Rodez
1.11
Grenoble
1.16
Valenciennes
1.24
Guingamp
1.26
PAU
1.29
Rouen
1.32
Nimes
1.34
Dunkerque
1.39
Dijon
1.39
Nancy
1.82
PAU is 0.34 goals worse than Bastia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PAU
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bastia
For 3.4 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PAU
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
9.8
9.7
9.9
4.3
4.1
4.5
28.6
29.0
28.3
vs Stronger (7)
11.7
10.5
13.3
4.1
3.0
5.7
26.6
20.8
34.3
vs Similar (29)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
28.7
30.3
27.3
vs Weaker (6)
9.8
9.7
10.0
4.3
4.3
4.3
30.7
33.7
27.7
% over line
55%
62%
48%
64%
62%
67%
86%
81%
90%
% under line
45%
38%
52%
36%
38%
33%
14%
19%
10%
This opponent (Bastia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
4.0
3.5
4.4
27.1
28.1
26.2
vs Stronger (22)
9.0
8.3
9.4
4.1
3.7
4.4
26.9
28.1
26.0
vs Similar (25)
8.8
8.9
8.7
4.1
3.5
4.7
26.9
27.5
26.2
vs Weaker (3)
12.3
18.0
9.5
2.7
2.0
3.0
29.7
36.0
26.5
% over line
47%
48%
46%
60%
54%
65%
84%
83%
85%
% under line
53%
52%
54%
40%
46%
35%
16%
17%
15%
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rouen
10.5
Auxerre
10.0
PAU
9.8
Nimes
9.7
Dijon
9.5
Guingamp
9.5
Toulouse
9.4
Bastia
9.1
Caen
9.0
Amiens
8.7
Ajaccio
8.7
Niort
8.7
Valenciennes
8.5
Grenoble
8.5
Sochaux
8.5
Nancy
8.4
Paris FC
8.1
Dunkerque
7.8
Rodez
7.8
Le Havre
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Amiens
4.5
Paris FC
4.5
Valenciennes
4.5
Caen
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
PAU
4.3
Nimes
4.3
Rodez
4.2
Rouen
4.1
Grenoble
4.1
Bastia
4.1
Nancy
4.1
Niort
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Guingamp
4.0
Sochaux
3.9
Le Havre
3.8
Ajaccio
3.7
Auxerre
3.6
Dijon
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rouen
35.2
Valenciennes
32.2
Amiens
32.0
Nancy
31.7
Niort
31.1
Dunkerque
31.0
Toulouse
30.5
Rodez
29.9
Paris FC
29.4
Caen
29.2
Guingamp
28.7
PAU
28.6
Sochaux
28.5
Ajaccio
27.8
Le Havre
27.7
Bastia
27.1
Grenoble
27.0
Nimes
26.4
Dijon
25.8
Auxerre
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
35.3%
Under 9.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.4%
Under 21.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PAU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.50
0.25
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.40
0.60
0.10
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bastia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.19
0.69
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.25
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PAU over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PAU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.88
0.69
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.60
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bastia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.64
0.57
0.44
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.07
0.67
0.50
0.62
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.21
0.62
0.62
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PAU over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PAU · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Babacar Leye50%
Axel Bamba0%
Brice Maubleu0%
Jessy Benet0%
Lorenzo Rajot0%
Gaëtan Paquiez0%
Hacene Benali0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Tom Saettel0%
Cheikh Fall0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Giovani Versini0%
Axel Dodote0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Axel Bamba50%
Gaëtan Paquiez50%
Tom Saettel33%
Giovani Versini33%
Lorenzo Rajot25%
Hacene Benali25%
Axel Dodote25%
Brice Maubleu0%
Jessy Benet0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Cheikh Fall0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Babacar Leye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Benet25%
Lorenzo Rajot25%
Axel Bamba0%
Brice Maubleu0%
Gaëtan Paquiez0%
Hacene Benali0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Tom Saettel0%
Cheikh Fall0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Babacar Leye0%
Giovani Versini0%
Axel Dodote0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cheikh Fall50%
Babacar Leye25%
Axel Bamba0%
Brice Maubleu0%
Jessy Benet0%
Lorenzo Rajot0%
Gaëtan Paquiez0%
Hacene Benali0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Tom Saettel0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Giovani Versini0%
Axel Dodote0%
Bastia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joachim Eickmayer20%
Felix Tomi14%
Jeremy Sebas13%
Ruben Beliandjou9%
Anthony Roncaglia8%
Amine Boutrah7%
Alexandre Zaouai7%
Dominique Guidi5%
Christophe Vincent4%
Juan Guevara4%
Tom Ducrocq3%
Mehdi Merghem0%
Gustave Akueson0%
Florian Bohnert0%
Johny Placide0%
Issiaka Karamoko0%
Loïc Etoga0%
Maxime Blé0%
Tom Meynadier0%
Noah Zilliox0%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Lisandru Olmeta0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Jocelyn Janneh0%
Nicolas Parravicini0%
Matteo Petrignani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Zilliox50%
Nicolas Parravicini50%
Juan Guevara44%
Dominique Guidi38%
Zakaria Ariss29%
Tom Ducrocq24%
Florian Bohnert20%
Gustave Akueson19%
Jeremy Sebas17%
Tom Meynadier16%
Anthony Roncaglia16%
Christophe Vincent16%
Amine Boutrah14%
Joachim Eickmayer13%
Mehdi Merghem12%
Loïc Etoga10%
Matteo Petrignani10%
Issiaka Karamoko10%
Johny Placide9%
Felix Tomi9%
Lisandru Olmeta8%
Maxime Blé7%
Alexandre Zaouai7%
Jocelyn Janneh4%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Ruben Beliandjou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Loïc Etoga10%
Matteo Petrignani10%
Amine Boutrah7%
Alexandre Zaouai7%
Felix Tomi6%
Johny Placide4%
Florian Bohnert4%
Juan Guevara4%
Jocelyn Janneh4%
Zakaria Ariss3%
Tom Ducrocq0%
Dominique Guidi0%
Anthony Roncaglia0%
Christophe Vincent0%
Mehdi Merghem0%
Gustave Akueson0%
Joachim Eickmayer0%
Issiaka Karamoko0%
Maxime Blé0%
Tom Meynadier0%
Noah Zilliox0%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Lisandru Olmeta0%
Jeremy Sebas0%
Nicolas Parravicini0%
Ruben Beliandjou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Merghem25%
Jeremy Sebas23%
Amine Boutrah21%
Felix Tomi14%
Joachim Eickmayer7%
Christophe Vincent4%
Tom Ducrocq3%
Dominique Guidi0%
Anthony Roncaglia0%
Gustave Akueson0%
Florian Bohnert0%
Johny Placide0%
Issiaka Karamoko0%
Loïc Etoga0%
Juan Guevara0%
Maxime Blé0%
Tom Meynadier0%
Noah Zilliox0%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Lisandru Olmeta0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Jocelyn Janneh0%
Nicolas Parravicini0%
Matteo Petrignani0%
Alexandre Zaouai0%
Ruben Beliandjou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (37)
€176m
TOU (24)
€115m
AUX (29)
€84m
LH (25)
€55m
ROD (23)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
BAS (19)
€7m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
VAL (21)
€4m
ROU (14)
€3m
PAU's squad is €7m more valuable than Bastia's (€14m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (13)
€59m
TOU (7)
€30m
AUX (11)
€23m
LH (10)
€9m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
BAS (9)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
ROU (5)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
VAL (8)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
PAU's attack is €2m more valuable than Bastia's (€6m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (7)
€54m
TOU (7)
€39m
AUX (5)
€28m
LH (5)
€23m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
GRE (5)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
BAS (3)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
VAL (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
ROU (3)
€0m
PAU and Bastia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (17)
€62m
TOU (10)
€46m
AUX (13)
€33m
LH (10)
€23m
ROD (10)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
GRE (10)
€4m
AMI (8)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
VAL (10)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
ROU (6)
€1m
PAU's defence is €4m more valuable than Bastia's (€6m vs €2m).
France: Ligue 2 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Toulouse
Ajaccio
Auxerre
Paris FC
Sochaux
Guingamp
Caen
Le Havre
Nimes
Dijon
Niort
Amiens
Grenoble
Valenciennes
Rodez
Rouen
Dunkerque
Nancy