The match between Portsmouth and Derby is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Portsmouth’s recent form shows a win followed by three losses and a draw, yet they have scored an average of 1.08 goals and conceded 1.17 at home against opponents of similar strength. Derby, on the road, has collected two wins, a draw, and two losses, averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against comparable opposition. The probability spread is 34% for a Portsmouth victory, 29% for a draw, and 37% for Derby to lift the trophy. The expected total of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.8%), and Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%).
Results analysis
Portsmouth’s recent form, a string of two straight defeats, was broken by a 0-2 loss to Derby, the result that the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite, Away win, came with a 38% probability and the model’s call was correct. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.1%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 95.0%. The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate, with all selections settling in the final whistle.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portsmouth win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied 48.3% · @ 1.95
Edge
-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Dafabet
1.99
Betano
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.43
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.54
Dafabet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Derby win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.88
Edge
+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Portsmouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.63
1.14
1.29
1.38
1.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.40
1.08
1.17
1.46
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.31
1.25
1.50
1.57
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
2.33
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.23
1.38
1.00
1.46
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
@ 1.31+3.7%
Under 1.5
25.0%
@ 3.27-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.9%
@ 2.00+1.4%
Under 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.80-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Under
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.0%
@ 3.41-0.5%
Under 3.5
73.0%
@ 1.29+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Under
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.6%
@ 1.80+3.1%
No
45.4%
@ 1.92-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
No
William Hil
2.00
BetVictor
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.15+6.4%
0-1
8.6%@ 9.99+4.1%
1-2
8.5%@ 12.03+4.8%
0-0
8.5%@ 8.87+3.4%
1-0
7.9%@ 6.48+0.9%
2-1
7.9%@ 7.94+2.2%
0-2 ✓
6.7%@ 18.97+4.4%
2-0
5.7%@ 8.63+0.5%
Portsmouth goals ↓
Derby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.6%
6.7%
3.1%
1.0%
1
7.9%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.7%
7.9%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.3%
2.3%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portsmouth goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Portsmouth is 0.30 points worse than Derby in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Portsmouth is 0.39 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Portsmouth is 0.11 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Portsmouth is 6.0 percentage points better than Derby in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Portsmouth
For 4.2 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
For 4.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portsmouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.7
10.8
3.9
4.2
3.6
22.1
22.2
22.0
vs Stronger (8)
11.1
12.0
10.2
2.9
3.8
2.0
20.8
19.5
22.0
vs Similar (42)
10.7
10.5
10.9
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.4
22.7
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
68%
68%
48%
56%
40%
56%
60%
52%
% under line
32%
32%
32%
52%
44%
60%
44%
40%
48%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
9.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
22.7
22.4
23.1
vs Stronger (6)
9.7
11.3
8.0
4.7
3.7
5.7
24.0
21.3
26.7
vs Similar (44)
10.0
9.9
10.1
4.0
4.1
3.9
22.5
22.5
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
42%
54%
58%
50%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
46%
42%
50%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.3%
@ 1.57+0.2%
Under 9.5
40.7%
@ 2.27-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.5%
@ 1.65+0.2%
Under 3.5
43.5%
@ 2.12-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.1%
Under 21.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Portsmouth or Draw✗ Miss
61.9%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.23
Edge
-13.9%
33%
29%
38%
covers Portsmouth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Portsmouth or Derby✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.9%
33%
29%
38%
covers Portsmouth + Derby
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Draw or Derby✓ Hit
66.8%
Avg Implied 51.0% · @ 1.83
Edge
+15.7%
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Derby
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.7%
@ 1.20-5.7%
Under
28.3%
@ 4.11+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.36
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Portsmouth over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.02-10.2%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.74+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Under
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Portsmouth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.31-8.2%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.19+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.52
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Portsmouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 9.25-6.1%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.40
1xBet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Derby over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.5%
@ 1.47+11.1%
Under
25.5%
@ 2.54-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Derby over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.6%
@ 3.30+11.4%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.30-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Derby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 8.21+4.5%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.05-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Derby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 21.33+0.5%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.01-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Portsmouth, so a minus line means Portsmouth give that many goals of a start and Derby receive them. At -1, Portsmouth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Portsmouth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Portsmouth)Actual: Derby
Portsmouth -2
5.0%
@ 7.73-6.5%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 5.38-6.7%
Derby +2
85.1%
@ 1.24+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
5.30
Away
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Handicap -1 (Portsmouth)Actual: Derby
Portsmouth -1
14.9%
@ 3.54-10.4%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 3.53-7.0%
Derby +1
66.8%
@ 1.81+17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Away
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Handicap +1 (Portsmouth)Actual: Derby
Portsmouth +1
61.9%
@ 1.23-10.9%
Draw +1
20.0%
@ 5.28+3.0%
Derby -1
18.1%
@ 8.85+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
7.90
Handicap +2 (Portsmouth)Actual: Draw
Portsmouth +2
81.9%
@ 1.06-4.2%
Draw +2
11.6%
@ 9.91+2.4%
Derby -2
6.6%
@ 19.00+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Unibet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Marathonbet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.64
0.50
0.58
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.69
0.69
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.65
0.69
0.69
0.92
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.3%
@ 1.40+3.9%
Under 0.5
29.7%
@ 2.77-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.87+2.9%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.38-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
2.99
Superbet
2.90
Unibet
2.90
William Hil
2.88
Under
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Betano
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 7.30-1.6%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.6%
@ 1.87-5.3%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.86+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 5.28-5.1%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.12+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Unibet
5.40
Betano
5.30
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 14.12-4.5%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.0%
@ 2.54+7.4%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.47-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 8.82+0.4%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.04-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.20
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 23.25-2.5%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.50
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.76
0.58
0.58
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.62
0.56
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.69
0.31
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.25+3.5%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 3.65-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.5%
@ 2.15-1.9%
Under 1.5
58.5%
@ 1.65+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 4.68-3.1%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.17+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
William Hil
4.80
Unibet
4.70
1xBet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.4%
@ 1.63-5.5%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.16+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.01
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 3.87-7.1%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.22+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 10.38-6.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 2.08+4.3%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.67-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Under
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 6.34+1.9%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.08-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.65
Superbet
6.50
Betano
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 17.00-2.0%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.08
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
1.06
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-4.2%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.7%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.22
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.5%
1.47
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.7%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
-5.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.2%
1.33
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.40
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
+3.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Portsmouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Segecic40%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen25%
Ebou Adams20%
Terry Devlin20%
M. Milovanović20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ebou Adams20%
R. Shein20%
Terry Devlin20%
A. Segecic20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Kamara25%
Ebou Adams20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Segecic0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Segecic80%
A. Kamara25%
Colby Bishop20%
N. Schmid0%
Ebou Adams0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Portsmouth's squad is €24m less valuable than Derby's (€32m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Portsmouth's attack is €12m less valuable than Derby's (€13m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Portsmouth's midfield is €9m less valuable than Derby's (€5m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Portsmouth's defence is €4m less valuable than Derby's (€14m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Stoke
Burnley
Preston