Preston hosts Wolves in the Championship, a match that has seen Wolves' recent form come under scrutiny. The visitors, Wolves, have drawn their last outing against Blackburn, while Preston suffered consecutive defeats after a 1-2 loss to Bolton.
The model predicts a 47% chance of an away win, with the most likely match result being Wolves' victory. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13.6%.
At home, Preston's form against similar opponents has seen them score 1.08 goals on average while conceding 1.58. Away from home, Wolves have managed 1 goal on average while conceding 1.
The model's selections include an Under 3.5 goals outcome at 76.4%, offering a 10% edge, and an Over 1.5 goals outcome at 71.9%. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 24%, 29%, and 47% respectively.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction was spot on as Wolves secured a 3-1 victory, extending their winning run after a win in their previous outing. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 47 % probability and proved correct. The final score of 1-3 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. Every model selection performed as expected: Under 7.5 hit with 99.8 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.6 %, Under 5.5 hit at 97.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.0 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.9 %. The model’s comprehensive set of selections delivered a flawless outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Preston win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.74
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.10
Unibet
3.95
Betano
3.90
888Sport
3.90
Bet365
3.80
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
10Bet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Wolves win✓ Hit
47.0%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 1.97
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Dafabet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Preston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.53
1.00
1.47
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.47
1.41
0.62
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.75
1.12
1.75
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.60
1.00
1.29
0.50
1.88
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.25-1.6%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 3.77+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Unibet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.80-5.5%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.99+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
SBO
2.06
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 2.95-6.4%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.37+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
@ 1.66-4.4%
No
48.4%
@ 2.11+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
888Sport
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
No
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.39+6.4%
0-1
10.6%@ 7.50+4.5%
1-2
9.3%@ 7.80+3.4%
0-0
9.0%@ 10.81+4.8%
0-2
8.9%@ 9.49+4.1%
1-0
6.9%@ 11.28+2.8%
2-1
6.4%@ 11.77+2.5%
2-2
4.8%@ 12.39+1.1%
Preston goals ↓
Wolves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
11%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
1
6.9%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.2%
6.4%
4.8%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.5%
2.2%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Preston goals (down), columns = Wolves goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Preston is 0.60 points worse than Wolves in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Preston is 0.61 goals worse than Wolves in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Preston is 0.42 goals worse than Wolves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Preston
For 5.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wolves
For 4.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Preston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.2
10.2
3.4
3.7
3.1
20.1
19.5
20.8
vs Stronger (7)
11.0
12.5
9.0
2.4
3.5
1.0
18.3
17.0
20.0
vs Similar (42)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.6
3.7
3.5
20.4
19.9
21.0
vs Weaker (1)
14.0
-
14.0
1.0
-
1.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
60%
69%
50%
48%
54%
42%
30%
27%
33%
% under line
40%
31%
50%
52%
46%
58%
70%
73%
67%
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.2
3.7
3.8
3.7
23.3
22.8
23.9
vs Stronger (19)
9.9
8.6
11.4
3.9
4.6
3.1
23.3
22.6
24.0
vs Similar (28)
9.0
8.7
9.3
3.7
3.4
4.2
23.6
23.4
23.9
vs Weaker (3)
11.0
11.5
10.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
19.7
18.5
22.0
% over line
60%
54%
68%
52%
46%
59%
62%
61%
64%
% under line
40%
46%
32%
48%
54%
41%
38%
39%
36%
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.7%
@ 1.58+4.3%
Under 9.5
37.3%
@ 2.23-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.1%
@ 1.88+2.6%
Under 3.5
47.9%
@ 1.84-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.95
Unibet
1.86
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.1%
Under 21.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Preston or Draw✗ Miss
67.6%
Avg Implied 51.0% · @ 1.84
Edge
+16.6%
25%
28%
47%
covers Preston + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.99
Bet365
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Unibet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Preston or Wolves✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-5.2%
25%
28%
47%
covers Preston + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Draw or Wolves✓ Hit
63.9%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
-11.5%
25%
28%
47%
covers Draw + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Preston over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.4%
@ 1.38+1.2%
Under
31.6%
@ 2.83-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.85
Preston over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.0%
@ 2.94+0.2%
Under
68.0%
@ 1.37-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.95
Under
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Preston over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 7.57-1.3%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Preston over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 22.95-1.3%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
29.00
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Wolves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.0%
@ 1.17-13.8%
Under
34.0%
@ 4.60+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.80
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Wolves over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.3%
@ 1.89-20.3%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.85+20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betfair
1.91
Under
888Sport
1.91
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Wolves over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.5%
@ 3.78-15.1%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.23+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.14
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.84
Under
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Wolves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 8.35-8.7%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.04+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Preston, so a minus line means Preston give that many goals of a start and Wolves receive them. At -1, Preston must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Preston win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Preston)Actual: Wolves
Preston -2
5.0%
@ 20.50+0.5%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 10.80+2.1%
Wolves +2
84.4%
@ 1.05-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.20
10Bet
9.00
Away
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Preston)Actual: Wolves
Preston -1
15.6%
@ 8.64+5.2%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 5.45+4.1%
Wolves +1
63.9%
@ 1.22-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
7.70
Draw
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
Betfair
5.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Handicap +1 (Preston)Actual: Wolves
Preston +1
67.6%
@ 1.83+18.4%
Draw +1
19.1%
@ 3.67-5.4%
Wolves -1
13.3%
@ 3.43-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Away
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
10Bet
3.20
Handicap +2 (Preston)Actual: Draw
Preston +2
86.7%
@ 1.27+16.1%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 5.44-7.2%
Wolves -2
4.0%
@ 7.00-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
10Bet
5.00
Away
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Preston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.73
0.36
0.57
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.71
0.59
0.23
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.83
0.12
0.62
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.80
0.71
0.57
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
3.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.7%
@ 1.34+1.3%
Under 0.5
29.3%
@ 3.04-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.15
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.2%
@ 2.61-0.6%
Under 1.5
64.8%
@ 1.45+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Pinnacle
2.76
Unibet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Under
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 6.35-4.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Under
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Preston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 2.36-0.4%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.54+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Preston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 8.08-4.3%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.60
Superbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Preston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 29.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.2%
@ 1.80-3.7%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.94+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.77
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Wolves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 4.91-6.4%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.14+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
Wolves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 11.92-2.3%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Preston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.77
0.64
0.93
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.76
0.82
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.92
1.00
1.12
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.80
0.29
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Preston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.1%
Under 1.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Preston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Preston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Preston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+15.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
888Sport
1.06
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
+16.1%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.1%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.32
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.34
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Preston
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jusef Erabi33%
J. Thompson17%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
L. Leroy0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
A. Vukčević0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ali McCann75%
L. Leroy40%
Andrew Hughes33%
J. Thompson33%
Pol Valentín33%
H. Clarke25%
L. Lindsay20%
A. Vukčević20%
Jusef Erabi17%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
Andrew Moran0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Delano Burgzorg33%
A. Vukčević20%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
J. Thompson0%
L. Leroy0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Jusef Erabi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Leroy20%
Jusef Erabi17%
Andrew Hughes0%
D. Iversen0%
C. Lang0%
J. Storey0%
L. Lindsay0%
J. Thompson0%
Delano Burgzorg0%
A. Vukčević0%
Pol Valentín0%
Ali McCann0%
Andrew Moran0%
H. Clarke0%
L. Gibson0%
Alfie Devine0%
O. Offiah0%
T. Small0%
Wolves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Jiménez33%
M. Munetsi33%
Adam Armstrong33%
Fer López33%
Jordan James25%
André20%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
M. Mane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Traoré33%
M. Mane33%
Jordan James25%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
R. Jiménez0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Fer López0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommy Doyle33%
Fer López33%
André20%
R. Jiménez17%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
M. Munetsi0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
M. Mane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Mane50%
Fer López33%
R. Jiménez17%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Preston's squad is €231m less valuable than Wolves's (€43m vs €273m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Preston's attack is €61m less valuable than Wolves's (€17m vs €79m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Preston's midfield is €76m less valuable than Wolves's (€3m vs €79m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Preston's defence is €94m less valuable than Wolves's (€22m vs €116m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley